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According to crypto entrepreneur Arthur Hayes, Bitcoin (BTC) is likely to bottom around $70,000, marking a 36% correction from its latest all-time high (ATH) of $108,786. Hayes stated that such corrections are “very normal” in a bull market.
Bitcoin To Dip Further?
Yesterday, Bitcoin hit a four-month low of $76,606 as both the global cryptocurrency and stock markets tumbled amid rising fears of an economic recession. For context, the S&P 500 (SPX) has dropped nearly 8% over the past month.
Latest data from predictions market platform Polymarket assigns a 39% chance of a US recession in 2025. On February 28, the platform gave a 23% probability of a US recession this year.
Despite these economic concerns, Hayes advises crypto investors to remain patient. In an X post published yesterday, the former BitMEX CEO stated that BTC will likely find a bottom around $70,000, completing a routine 36% correction from its ATH in January.
Hayes further noted that once BTC hits $70,000, traditional financial markets – including the S&P 500 (SPX) and Nasdaq (NDX) – would need to experience a sharp decline, accompanied by failures in major financial institutions.
This, in turn, would prompt central banks like the US Federal Reserve (Fed), the European Central Bank (ECB), and the Bank of Japan (BOJ) to initiate quantitative easing (QE), creating an optimal buying opportunity. He added:
Then you load up the truck. Traders will try to buy the dip, if you are more risk averse wait for the central banks to ease then deploy more capital. You might not catch the bottom but you also won’t have to mentally suffer through a long period of sideways and potential unrealised losses.
Historical data suggests that QE has been highly beneficial for BTC’s price. During the last QE period, from March 2020 to November 2021 – amid the COVID pandemic – BTC surged from $6,000 to as high as $69,000, marking an astonishing 1,050% gain.
Similarly, crypto analyst Michael van de Poppe shared the following chart, noting that BTC likely completed a double-bottom re-test and experienced a strong bounce after yesterday’s potential low. He further suggested that if BTC breaks past $83,500, it could see an even stronger move to the upside.
Data Points Toward BTC Trend Reversal
While Hayes predicts that BTC has yet to bottom, several indicators suggest the flagship cryptocurrency may soon witness a trend reversal. For instance, BTC’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at its lowest level since August 2024, signaling that a potential recovery may be imminent.
Additionally, the US dollar index (DXY) recently experienced one of its largest weekly declines since 2013, raising hopes for a rally in risk-on assets like Bitcoin. At press time, BTC is trading at $80,008, up 0.1% in the past 24 hours.
