Is Bitcoin Top Here? This Metric Would Say Otherwise

Keshav Verma

1 year ago

3 mins read

Reason to trust

Strict editorial policy that focuses on accuracy, relevance, and impartiality

Created by industry experts and meticulously reviewed

The highest standards in reporting and publishing

How Our News is Made

Strict editorial policy that focuses on accuracy, relevance, and impartiality

Ad discliamer

Morbi pretium leo et nisl aliquam mollis. Quisque arcu lorem, ultricies quis pellentesque nec, ullamcorper eu odio.

The Bitcoin MVRV ratio, an on-chain indicator, could suggest the asset may not have hit its top for the current rally just yet.

Bitcoin MVRV Ratio Says Market Isn’t Overheated Right Now

According to data from the market intelligence platform IntoTheBlock, past bull markets hit their peaks when the MVRV ratio crossed the 300% mark. The “Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio” refers to an indicator that keeps track of the ratio between the Bitcoin market cap and realized cap.

The “realized cap” here is a capitalization model for BTC that calculates the total value of the cryptocurrency by assuming that each coin in circulation is worth the same as the price at which it was last moved, rather than the current spot price.

As the price at which a coin was last moved on the blockchain was likely the price at which it changed hands, the realized cap can be interpreted as the total amount of capital that the investors as a whole have put into the asset.

The MVRV ratio compares the price of the coin (the market cap) with the realized cap, so it can tell us whether the investors are holding more or less than they put in.

Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the Bitcoin MVRV ratio over the last few years:

Looks like the value of the metric has been going up in recent days | Source: IntoTheBlock on X

In the above graph, the Bitcoin MVRV ratio is shown as a percentage. At the 100% mark, the two capitalization models approach a equal value, suggesting that the market as a whole is just breaking-even.

Above this threshold, the investors are holding a net amount of profit, while below they are carrying loss. From the chart, it’s visible that the BTC MVRV ratio has remained above the break-even in recent months as the asset’s price has observed a rally.

At present, the metric is floating about the 150% level, suggesting that the market cap is 50% more than the realized cap. Historically, the larger the investors’ profits have gotten, the more likely they have become to take part in a selloff.

Because of this reason, tops have generally formed when the MVRV ratio has hit high levels. IntoTheBlock notes, however, that the bull markets in the past have usually only hit their peaks when the indicator has crossed the 300% mark.

Clearly, the indicator is still a significant distance away from this mark at the moment. This could be a potential sign that the Bitcoin rally hasn’t reached a state of overheat yet and thus, there might be more to come for the cryptocurrency’s price in terms of bullish momentum.

BTC Price

The Bitcoin rally has hit the pause button in the past week as the asset’s price has taken to sideways movement. Currently, the coin is trading around the $34,500 mark.

The value of BTC appears to have gone stale in the last few days | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView

Featured image from Shutterstock.com, charts from TradingView.com, IntoTheBlock.com

Keshav Verma

Keshav is currently a senior writer at NewsBTC and has been attached to the website since June 14, 2021.

Keshav has been writing for many years, first as a hobbyist and later as a freelancer. He has experience working in a variety of niches, even fiction at one point, but the cryptocurrency industry has been the longest he has been attached to.

In terms of official educational qualifications, Keshav holds a bachelor’s degree in Physics from one of the premier institutes of India, the University of Delhi (DU). He started the degree with an aim of eventually making a career in Physics, but the onset of COVID led to a shift in plans. The virus meant that the college classes had to be delivered in the online-mode and with it came free time for him to explore other passions.

Initially only seeking to make some beer money, Keshav unexpectedly landed clients offering real projects, after which there was no looking back. Writing was something he had always enjoyed and to be able to do it for a living was like a dream come true.

Keshav completed his Physics degree in 2022 and has been focusing on his writing career since, but that doesn’t mean his passion for Physics has ended. He eventually plans to re-enter university to obtain a masters degree in the same field, but perhaps only to satiate his own interest rather than for using it as a means to find employment..

Keshav has found blockchain and its concepts fascinating ever since he started going down the rabbit-hole back in 2020. On-chain analysis in particular has been something he likes to research more about, which is why his NewsBTC pieces tend to involve it in some form.

Being of the science background, Keshav likes if concepts are clear and consistent, so he generally explains the indicators he talks about in a bit of detail so that the readers can perhaps come out having understood and learnt something new.

As for hobbies, Keshav is super into football, anime, and videogames. He enjoys football not only as a watcher, but also as a player. For games, Keshav generally tends towards enjoying singleplayer adventures, with EA FC (formerly FIFA) being the only online game he is active in. Though, perhaps due to being ultra-focused on the game, he is today a semi-pro on the EA FC scene, regularly participating in tournaments and sometimes even taking back prize money.

Because of his enthusiasm for anime and games, he also self-learned Japanese along the way to consume some of the untranslated gems out there. The skill didn’t merely remain as just a hobby, either, as he put it to productive use during his exploration for small-time gigs at the start of COVID, fulfilling a couple of Japanese-to-English translation jobs.

Keshav is also big into fitness, with agility and acceleration-related workouts making a big part of his program due to the relevance they have in football. On top of that, he also has a more traditional strength based program for the gym, which he does to maintain an overall fitness level of his body.

Disclaimer: The information found on NewsBTC is for educational purposes only. It does not represent the opinions of NewsBTC on whether to buy, sell or hold any investments and naturally investing carries risks. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use information provided on this website entirely at your own risk.