Down But Not Out: The One Line Bitcoin Must Hold To Be Bullish

Tony "The Bull" Severino

Last Updated: June 11, 2024 7:08 am

3 mins read

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Bitcoin price is falling, testing the low $26,000 area of support after weeks of painful, sideways consolidation.

While the horizontal support line is clearly important, it’s nowhere near as critical as another line that BTCUSD absolutely must hold to remain bullish.

Drawing Trend Lines In Bitcoin Technical Analysis

In the practice of technical analysis, drawing trend lines is among the first basic steps anyone will take. Simply connect the line across various points on the chart to highlight support and resistancesupport and resistance.

Another basic step involves turning on technical indicators to look for potential buy and sell signals. Some of these tools call out when an asset is overbought or oversold, such as the Relative Strength Index.

More advanced techniques include drawing trend lines on indicators like the RSI instead of price. Much like drawing these lines from point to point diagonally can plot uptrends or downtrends, horizontal lines can also act as support or resistance on the RSI.

On the weekly timeframe Bitcoin price has pulled back to a reading of 53 on the RSI. This level must hold, according to past price history. Each time it has, the crypto market has erupted higher.

Holding the line is imperative | BTCUSD on TradingView.com

Bulls Must Show “Strength” At Current Levels

The above BTCUSD weekly chart shows the RSI pulling back to a reading of 53. The last time this happened, was in Q3 2020 right before an epic bull run. The short bullish rally in 2019 blasted right through it without a retest of the level.

Prior to these instances, all other outcomes were shockingly bullish when Bitcoin held above the line. Rather than falling into a bearish phase, each time BTCUSD weekly RSI held at the line in 2016 and 2017, the crypto market simply marched higher.

Other times, when BTCUSD failed to hold this line, a bear market ensued. A failed attempt to get back above the level typically led to the last leg of the bear market. However, getting back above it and then failing to hold could provide the crypto market with something more reminiscent of the COVID collapse and is something to watch closely for. Hold the line, and bulls will run again, possibly to new all-time highs.

The current weekly RSI in #Bitcoin must hold for a bull run to continue

Otherwise it’s back to bearish pic.twitter.com/hAVSdYf9Gs

— Tony "The Bull" Severino, CMT (@tonythebullBTC) May 24, 2023

Tony is the author of the CoinChartist (VIP) newsletter. Follow @TonyTheBullBTC & @coinchartist_io on Twitter. Or join the TonyTradesBTC Telegram for exclusive daily market insights and technical analysis education. Please note: Content is educational and should not be considered investment advice. Featured image from iStockPhoto, Charts from TradingView.com

Tony "The Bull" Severino

Tony "The Bull" Severino, CMT, is a distinguished figure in the cryptocurrency analysis sector, renowned for his in-depth technical expertise and innovative approach to market trends. As the Head of Research at NewsBTC, Tony leads a team dedicated to providing cutting-edge insights and forecasts, helping both novice and experienced traders navigate the complexities of the crypto market.
A seasoned Chartered Market Technician, Tony's prowess in identifying and capitalizing on market patterns is unmatched. His academic and professional journey in market analysis has firmly established him as a leading authority in technical trading strategies. Tony’s approach is heavily influenced by the principles of Elliott Wave Theory, a method known for its rigorous assessment of investor psychology and price movements.

Beyond his role at NewsBTC, Tony is the visionary founder of CoinChartist.io, an educational platform aimed at demystifying the nuances of cryptocurrency trading. CoinChartist.io serves as a valuable resource for traders seeking to enhance their technical analysis skills. The platform offers a range of learning tools and resources designed to empower traders with the knowledge to make informed trading decisions.

In addition to his educational initiatives, Tony is a prolific author and a dominant voice in the crypto community. He writes the CoinChartist VIP newsletter, a weekly dispatch that has become a staple among crypto enthusiasts, revered for its insightful analysis and actionable trading advice. This newsletter has consistently ranked as a best-seller on SubStack, boasting thousands of subscribers who rely on Tony’s expertise to guide their trading strategies.

Tony is also celebrated for his literary contributions to the field. He is the author of the highest-rated Crypto Trading Journal on Amazon.com, a testament to his ability to communicate complex trading concepts in an accessible manner. This journal is widely regarded as an essential tool for traders aiming to track their progress and refine their strategies.

Before his ascent in the financial analysis world, Tony honed his skills in journalism. His background in this field has endowed him with a unique ability to present intricate market dynamics in a clear and compelling manner, making his insights highly sought after by a broad audience that ranges from casual readers to professional traders.
His professional affiliations underscore his commitment to excellence and continuous learning. As a partner of Elliott Wave International and TradingView, Tony collaborates with other leading experts to enhance his knowledge and skills. His active membership in the CMT Association further aligns him with the highest standards of industry practices and ethics.

Tony’s nickname, "The Bull," aptly reflects his aggressive and optimistic outlook on the cryptocurrency markets. His forecasts often anticipate significant upturns, earning him a reputation for bullish predictions that have frequently led to lucrative outcomes for those who follow his advice.

In summary, Tony "The Bull" Severino, CMT, is more than just a technical analyst; he is a mentor, educator, and innovator whose influence in the cryptocurrency space continues to grow. His dedication to advancing the understanding of market forces and his commitment to providing high-quality, reliable analysis make him a pivotal figure in the world of cryptocurrency trading.

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