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Market expert Sam Daodu has released a new April outlook for Bitcoin (BTC), flagging geopolitical developments and macroeconomic forces as the decisive factors for where prices may go next.
Daodu’s note comes after Bitcoin ran into resistance just above roughly $72,000 and amid a market environment that has produced the asset’s first consecutive quarterly losses since 2022.
Bitcoin Faces Unusual April
Daodu pointed to Bitcoin’s historical tendency to finish April in the black: since 2013, the token has closed the month higher nine times out of 13, a 69% win rate.
On paper, April looks generous — the average return sits at 10.7% — but that mean is skewed by a handful of outsized years (2013, 2018, 2019, and 2020), each with gains above 28%. Strip out those extreme outliers, and the average April return falls to a subdued 0.7%.
More representative measures show Bitcoin’s median April gain at 7.1%, with the best April on record in 2013 (+36.8%) and the worst in 2022 (−17.2%). These historical ranges, Daodu says, demonstrate how much April outcomes depend on the broader macro backdrop.
What makes April 2026 unusual, Daodu argues, is the dominance of external macro and geopolitical drivers that were largely absent in prior years. The ongoing US–Iran conflict has kept oil prices elevated — above $100 since early March — and the Federal Reserve (Fed) has revised its 2026 inflation forecast upward to 2.7%.
Those developments have knocked back expectations for near‑term rate cuts and left markets braced for higher rates into the second quarter. Taken together, tighter liquidity and heightened geopolitical risk create a tougher environment for risk assets, including BTC.
Under these conditions, Daodu warns, the usual early‑April dip and subsequent rebound are no longer assured. Rather, three key elements will determine Bitcoin’s future.
Whether oil drops below $90 per barrel, whether monetary expectations ease, and whether the US-Iran ceasefire persists and leads to a lasting deal.
Three Possible Paths
Daodu lays out three price scenarios to quantify how those outcomes could play out. In his bullish case, a genuine ceasefire coupled with oil prices falling below $90 would significantly relieve macro pressure. That relief, he says, could allow Bitcoin to clear resistance above $75,000 and propel a run toward $80,000.
Progress on the CLARITY Act — legislative movement expected to be marked up in late April — would add fuel to that rally by improving regulatory clarity for digital assets.
His base case envisions a more muted month. Persistent tax‑related selling in early April could cap gains and keep BTC trading between about $68,000 and $76,000. Without a clear catalyst, such as an end to the conflict, Bitcoin would likely consolidate in that band.
The bearish scenario involves a breakdown of the ceasefire and renewed escalation. In that event, Daodu says Bitcoin could lose its nearby support around $69,000, trigger liquidations of leveraged positions, and see short‑term holders exit.
That pressure could send BTC toward $65,000 or lower; the expert notes that Standard Chartered has warned of a deeper slump toward $50,000 if macro conditions deteriorate substantially.
Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com
