Is $40,000 Next? Unpacking 4 Reasons Behind Bitcoin’s Emerging Rally

Reynaldo Marquez

1 year ago

2 mins read

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The Bitcoin price rally is losing strength as the cryptocurrency returns to its support levels following weeks of bullish momentum. In the short term, the landscape seems sloped to the downside, but an analyst presented the main reasons why the rally has just begun.

As of this writing, Bitcoin (BTC) trades at $36,550 with a 2% loss in the last 24 hours. Over the previous week, the cryptocurrency recorded similar losses following the general sentiment in the market. Only Solana (SOL) preserved its gains during the same period.

Bitcoin BTC BTCUSDT — BTC’s price trends to the upside on the daily chart. Source: **BTCUSDT on Tradingview**

Behind Bitcoin’s Surge: Decoding the Four Key Factors

According to a report from Deribit Insight, posted by Markus Thielen, several forces are pushing Bitcoin towards new yearly highs. These forces remain intact despite the recent price action.

Among the reasons behind the current BTC price rally, the analyst included speculations around the U.S. Securities And Exchange Commission (SEC) Bitcoin Exchange Traded Fund decision, traders’ appetite for leverage, fiat inflows through stablecoins, and increased fee generation within the Bitcoin network.

SEC’s Decision On The Bitcoin ETFs

A significant driver is the anticipation surrounding the SEC’s approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF. Despite passing the second deadline in mid-October without any announcement, the market remains watchful, with the third deadline set for mid-January 2024. The uncertainty surrounding this decision has led to fluctuations in implied volatility, influencing Bitcoin’s value.

Leveraged Positions and Futures Market

The demand for leveraged positions in Bitcoin, primarily through perpetual futures markets, indicates a strong interest in trading the BTC/USDT pair. This was evident when the funding premium reached an annualized +28% on November 13.

In addition, the BTC options market saw an uptick in realized volatility. The increase in the metric signals risk appetite for investors.

The chart below shows that the metric approaches its 5-year average. However, the analyst believes that volatility should decline as the year ends, suggesting that Bitcoin will follow a sideways trajectory in the short term.

Bitcoin price BTC BTCUSDT options crypto — BTC’s Realized Volatility returns to a 5-year average. Source: Deribit

Influx of Fiat Via Stablecoins

Another crucial aspect is the substantial fiat inflow into cryptocurrencies, mainly through Tether’s USDT, indicating fresh capital entering the crypto space. With over $3.8 billion moving into crypto in the last 30 days, this influx has had a notable impact, especially on altcoins, reflecting growing investor confidence.

Increased Bitcoin Network Activity

The Bitcoin network’s fee generation signals heightened activity, reaching $54 million. The report claims that this growth in network usage, partly driven by the resurgence of Ordinals and support from major exchanges, underscores the fundamental strength of the Bitcoin ecosystem.

Despite these positive indicators, the absence of an SEC Bitcoin ETF approval and a reduction in leveraged long positions might prevent Bitcoin from soaring past the $40,000 mark. However, the ongoing solid fiat inflows and a robust, fee-generating Bitcoin network provide grounds for cautious optimism.

Bitcoin’s journey remains captivating as it navigates regulatory decisions, market strategies, and evolving investor sentiment.

Cover image from Unsplash, chart from Tradingview

Reynaldo Marquez

A literature major, Reynaldo Márquez has been deeply immersed in the crypto industry since 2017. His journey began with translating articles for various crypto news outlets, a role he took on with zeal. In 2018, amidst a challenging market, he embraced his first writing assignment, demonstrating his unwavering commitment to the nascent industry and the promise of change it bears for many people worldwide.
In March 2021, he joined the prestigious crypto news outlet NewsBTC and Bitcoinist, where he not only reported on the latest crypto news but also had the privilege of interviewing some of the industry's most influential figures. A year later, his dedication and hard work were recognized, and he was promoted to Managing Editor, a position he currently holds with pride.
He believes in honesty, good communication, hard work, and the power of cryptocurrency and its potential to transform people's lives, especially those alienated by the legacy financial system. Born in 1992 in Venezuela, Reynaldo is familiar with how governments and central banks can negatively affect people, their everyday lives, and their futures by creating inflation and erasing their hopes for a better future. Thus, like many Venezuelans, he embraced this new technology to help him and his family navigate difficult times.
In another life, Reynaldo would have pursued a career as an investigator, most likely tracking down the origins of the Cyberpunk movement with the publication of William Gibson’s ‘Neuromancer.’ The intersection between fiction and reality, with the materialization of Bitcoin in 2009, would have allowed him to dive deep into the crypto sphere as something more than a financial phenomenon but also a cultural shift in society that was brewing since the XX century, and maybe even sooner, in the XIX century with the publication of Henry David Thoreau’s ‘Civil Disobedience.’
But that’s for another life. In this one, Reynaldo has been trading to improve his trading skills. Since 2023, he has been trying to learn Python to create successful strategies and find ways to execute them. It is a difficult task, which continues to keep him busy today and will most likely continue to keep him busy in the near and long term.
In his free time, he enjoys lifting heavy objects, reading, watching movies, and listening to his favorite music. Some of his favorite authors are Walt Whitman, William Faulkner, Allen Ginsberg, James Baldwin, Raymond Carver, Ray Bradbury, George Orwell, Mario Vargas Llosa, Reinaldo Arenas, Rafael Cadenas, and many others. Lately, he has been primarily interested in reading about dystopic societies, a topic that deeply resonates with the crypto industry.
Since 2023, he has lived in Spain with his wife. He loves the weather, the food, and the people and their culture. They both expect to travel much more within the country they now call home and beyond its border. He hopes to retire with his wife, maybe in a quiet place near a beach, but most likely in a city close to a library and a university with his kids and, hopefully, grandkids.

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