This Metric Hinted At The Bitcoin Retrace In Advance

Keshav Verma

1 year ago

3 mins read

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The trend in the total supply of the stablecoins may have hinted in advance that the Bitcoin rally wouldn’t last too long.

Bitcoin Stablecoins Supply Hasn’t Moved Much Recently

An analyst in a CryptoQuant Quicktake post explained that the latest news has been unable to make the stablecoins supply budge. The “stablecoins supply” here refers to the total circulating supply of all stablecoins in the sector.

Generally, investors use stables to escape the volatility associated with most coins in the rest of the cryptocurrency sector. Thus, whenever this metric rises, new tokens of the stablecoins are being minted because there is a demand for converting to them from the other assets or fresh demand is coming into the market.

Such investors who seek safety in these fiat-tied tokens usually do so because they don’t want to exit the cryptocurrency sector completely; they only require a temporary place to station their capital.

When these holders eventually find that the prices are right to jump back into the volatile coins like Bitcoin, they swap their stablecoins into them, thus putting buying pressure on their prices.

Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the stablecoins supply over the past year:

The value of the metric seems to have been heading down in recent days | Source: CryptoQuant

In the graph, the quant has marked a specific correlation between the Bitcoin spot price and the stablecoin supply. It would appear that all the major increases in the former during the past year have come following rises in the latter metric.

There are three instances of this trend in this period: the first formed before the January rally, the second before the March rebound, and the third before the June surge.

From the chart, it’s apparent that the price increase in the asset wasn’t caused by the increases in the supply of the stables but rather the decline in them that followed afterward.

The increases in the supply of the stablecoins likely occurred because of fresh capital injections. When this new capital was deployed into Bitcoin and the others (when the indicator declined), the assets obtained the fuel for their rallies.

With the most recent rally in the asset instigated by the news of Grayscale’s victory against the US SEC, there was no such pattern in the supply of these fiat-tied assets.

This may have been one of the early signs that the rally wasn’t backed by constructive market growth, as the stablecoins supply has only been moving sideways. The Bitcoin retrace below the $26,000 level may have only been a natural consequence of this weak structure.

BTC Price

Bitcoin had earlier fully retraced the gains of the Grayscale rally, but it would appear that the decline isn’t over just yet, as the asset has now gone below the $26,000 level it had been at before the surge.

BTC has plunged during the past couple of days | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView

Featured image from iStock.com, charts from TradingView.com, CryptoQuant.com

Keshav Verma

Keshav is currently a senior writer at NewsBTC and has been attached to the website since June 14, 2021.

Keshav has been writing for many years, first as a hobbyist and later as a freelancer. He has experience working in a variety of niches, even fiction at one point, but the cryptocurrency industry has been the longest he has been attached to.

In terms of official educational qualifications, Keshav holds a bachelor’s degree in Physics from one of the premier institutes of India, the University of Delhi (DU). He started the degree with an aim of eventually making a career in Physics, but the onset of COVID led to a shift in plans. The virus meant that the college classes had to be delivered in the online-mode and with it came free time for him to explore other passions.

Initially only seeking to make some beer money, Keshav unexpectedly landed clients offering real projects, after which there was no looking back. Writing was something he had always enjoyed and to be able to do it for a living was like a dream come true.

Keshav completed his Physics degree in 2022 and has been focusing on his writing career since, but that doesn’t mean his passion for Physics has ended. He eventually plans to re-enter university to obtain a masters degree in the same field, but perhaps only to satiate his own interest rather than for using it as a means to find employment..

Keshav has found blockchain and its concepts fascinating ever since he started going down the rabbit-hole back in 2020. On-chain analysis in particular has been something he likes to research more about, which is why his NewsBTC pieces tend to involve it in some form.

Being of the science background, Keshav likes if concepts are clear and consistent, so he generally explains the indicators he talks about in a bit of detail so that the readers can perhaps come out having understood and learnt something new.

As for hobbies, Keshav is super into football, anime, and videogames. He enjoys football not only as a watcher, but also as a player. For games, Keshav generally tends towards enjoying singleplayer adventures, with EA FC (formerly FIFA) being the only online game he is active in. Though, perhaps due to being ultra-focused on the game, he is today a semi-pro on the EA FC scene, regularly participating in tournaments and sometimes even taking back prize money.

Because of his enthusiasm for anime and games, he also self-learned Japanese along the way to consume some of the untranslated gems out there. The skill didn’t merely remain as just a hobby, either, as he put it to productive use during his exploration for small-time gigs at the start of COVID, fulfilling a couple of Japanese-to-English translation jobs.

Keshav is also big into fitness, with agility and acceleration-related workouts making a big part of his program due to the relevance they have in football. On top of that, he also has a more traditional strength based program for the gym, which he does to maintain an overall fitness level of his body.

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