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Bitcoin (BTC) is currently hovering above the recently breached $74,000 resistance, positioning to reclaim price levels not seen since the fourth quarter of last year. However, this week’s activity is set to be turbulent, with market expert Virtual Bacon predicting it could be the “most volatile week in Bitcoin all year.”
Bear Market Prevails
In a report shared on social media platform X, Virtual Bacon noted that, although the current Bitcoin price uptrend is optimistic, significant challenges remain.
The critical 200-day simple moving average (SMA) sits at $93,000, while the 50-week SMA is around $98,000. The last lower high resistance is pegged at $94,000, creating a confluence of resistance in the $93,000 to $98,000 range.
Simply said, there is a 15% downside risk to support levels in the low $60,000 zone, against a 30% upside potential to resistance. Virtual Bacon emphasized that the chances of a rejection back into the previous range outweigh the possibility of a full breakout into a bull market.
“This isn’t me being bearish,” he stated, emphasizing that the analysis is grounded in numerical realities. “We remain in a bear market until BTC decisively breaks above the $94,000 to $98,000 resistance.”
Market Volatility Expected This Week
Virtual Bacon’s concern regarding the expected volatility this week is attributed to several volatility catalysts. The first is the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting taking place from March 18-19.
There is a 99.1% likelihood of no interest rate cuts. However, the expert believes that any comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell—particularly concerning hawkish stances influenced by oil-driven inflation—could trigger a hard market sell-off.
Furthermore, the expiration of quarterly Bitcoin options on the same day enhances the potential for dramatic market movements. Current options data indicates heavy open interest clustered around the $74,000 to $75,000 range, suggesting that prices may stay constrained near this level until Friday’s expiry.
Virtual Bacon noted that, if the Bitcoin price moves above $75,000, it could surge toward $80,000. However, if it drops below $70,000, it may amplify the downward trend.
The ongoing geopolitical tensions surrounding oil prices could further complicate market conditions. The expert contended that if oil prices approach $120, combined with FOMC and quadruple witching events, the market could experience significant instability.
Two Scenarios For Bitcoin
In the expert’s view, there are two main scenarios to consider by the end of the week. The first, a potential breakout, would see Bitcoin hold above the $75,000 mark through Friday’s expected volatility.
He said that this could facilitate a move toward $80,000 and set the stage for renewed bullish sentiment as the market looks for recovery toward the critical resistance levels of $94,000 to $98,000 in the second quarter of the year.
The second scenario involves a rejection at the $75,000 resistance level, leading to a post-expiry drop back into the $63,000 to $70,000 range.
Virtual Bacon concludes that if such a decline occurs, the S&P 500 could break below its 200-day SMA, and oil prices could escalate, pushing Bitcoin back into prolonged bear market conditions, with scenarios suggesting prices could fall as low as $58,000 or even $43,000.
Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com
