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Bitcoin Price Forecast: What To Expect In The Final 24 Hours Before US Election

Ronaldo Marquez
Ronaldo Marquez
10 months ago
3 mins read
Bitcoin

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As the US presidential election approaches, the Bitcoin price has found a stable support range between $68,000 and $69,000, just shy of its all-time high earlier this year. 

While the cryptocurrency has struggled to surpass this significant milestone, investor sentiment remains cautiously optimistic, with expectations for further price increases tempered by anticipated market volatility in the upcoming hours.

Bitcoin Price Expected To Swing 8% Post-Election

The options market indicates the Bitcoin price could see price swings of approximately 8% in either direction following the election, a notable increase compared to the typical 2% fluctuations seen on regular trading days. 

Caroline Mauron, co-founder of Orbit Markets, a crypto derivatives liquidity provider, noted that “no significant volatility premium is priced in after Nov. 7,” suggesting the market anticipates a relatively swift resolution to the election results. 

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The election pits Republican nominee and former President Donald Trump against Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris, with both candidates eliciting varied responses from the crypto community. 

Trump’s favorable stance towards cryptocurrencies has positioned Bitcoin as part of the so-called “Trump trades,” especially in light of the regulatory crackdown experienced under President Joe Biden. 

As Trump’s odds have fluctuated in betting markets, the Bitcoin price has mirrored these changes, briefly nearing record highs before retreating as polls indicate a tightly contested race.

The options market reflects a balanced sentiment, with an even distribution of bearish and bullish positions throughout October, indicating that traders are preparing for upward and downward movements as the election draws near. 

Data from the Deribit exchange suggests a potential trading range of $60,000 to $80,000 for the Bitcoin price in the weeks following the election, based on peak open interest in options contracts.

Path To $100,000 Remains Viable

Crypto analyst Miles Deutscher has also shared his view on social media, positing that a Trump victory could lead to an immediate Bitcoin price surge, potentially establishing a new all-time high this year. 

Conversely, the analyst suggests that a win for Harris might result in a price drop, delaying any new highs until Q1 2025. Regardless of the election outcome, Deutscher remains confident that Bitcoin will reach $100,000.

Market expert Patric H. adds another layer of analysis, observing that Bitcoin closed the past week above a daily downtrend channel, indicating a potential reversal. 

However, Patrick notes that the weekly candle shows weakness, prompting market participants to de-risk before the election. His bullish thesis hinges on Bitcoin holding above $65,000; a drop below this level could signal a return to extended price volatility.

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From a trading perspective, data indicates that perpetual traders on Binance have withdrawn limit buy orders below $50,000, suggesting a shift in sentiment. 

Previously, there was substantial long interest in the “multi-billion dollar range” between $42,000 and $50,000, but traders appear to have sidelined that capital in favor of higher price levels. The next significant limit buy order is $63,800, with additional smaller orders scattered down to that level, indicating that Bitcoin may not fall significantly below this point.

On the upside, the next significant resistance level for the Bitcoin price is $73,000, where substantial selling interest from Coinbase and Binance is noted. Patrick anticipates a potential rejection in the $75,000 to $76,000 range, which could precede a breakout if those levels are successfully breached.

Bitcoin price
The daily chart shows BTC’s price retrace experienced over the past few days. Source: BTCUSDT on TradingView.com

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $68,360, up 0.8% over the past 24 hours.

Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com

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Ronaldo Marquez
Ronaldo Marquez

Ronaldo Marquez

Ronaldo is an experienced crypto enthusiast dedicated to the nascent and ever-evolving industry. With over five years of extensive research and unwavering dedication, he has cultivated a profound interest in the world of cryptocurrencies.

Read more

Ronaldo's journey began with a spark of curiosity, which soon transformed into a deep passion for understanding the intricacies of this groundbreaking technology.

Driven by an insatiable thirst for knowledge, Ronaldo has delved into the depths of the crypto space, exploring its various facets, from blockchain fundamentals to market trends and investment strategies. His tireless exploration and commitment to staying up-to-date with the latest developments have granted him a unique perspective on the industry.

One of Ronaldo's defining areas of expertise lies in technical analysis. He firmly believes that studying charts and deciphering price movements provides valuable insights into the market. Ronaldo recognizes that patterns exist within the chaos of crypto charts, and by utilizing technical analysis tools and indicators, he can unlock hidden opportunities and make informed investment decisions. His dedication to mastering this analytical approach has allowed him to navigate the volatile crypto market with confidence and precision.

Ronaldo's commitment to his craft goes beyond personal gain. He is passionate about sharing his knowledge and insights with others, empowering them to make well-informed decisions in the crypto space. Ronaldo's writing is a testament to his dedication, providing readers with meaningful analysis and up-to-date news. He strives to offer a comprehensive understanding of the crypto industry, helping readers navigate its complexities and seize opportunities.

Outside of the crypto realm, Ronaldo enjoys indulging in other passions. As an avid sports fan, he finds joy in watching exhilarating sporting events, witnessing the triumphs and challenges of athletes pushing their limits. Furthermore, His passion for languages extends beyond mere communication; he aspires to master German, French, Italian, and Portuguese, in addition to his native Spanish. Recognizing the value of linguistic proficiency, Ronaldo aims to enhance his work prospects, personal relationships, and overall growth.

However, Ronaldo's aspirations extend far beyond language acquisition. He believes that the future of the crypto industry holds immense potential as a groundbreaking force in history. With unwavering conviction, he envisions a world where cryptocurrencies unlock financial freedom for all and become catalysts for societal development and growth. Ronaldo is determined to prepare himself for this transformative era, ensuring he is well-equipped to navigate the crypto landscape.

Ronaldo also recognizes the importance of maintaining a healthy body and mind, regularly hitting the gym to stay physically fit. He immerses himself in books and podcasts that inspire him to become the best version of himself, constantly seeking new ways to expand his horizons and knowledge.

With a genuine desire to become the best version of himself, Ronaldo is committed to continuous improvement. He sets personal goals, embraces challenges, and seeks opportunities for growth and self-reflection. Ultimately, combining his passion for cryptocurrencies, dedication to learning, and commitment to personal development, Ronaldo aims to go hand-in-hand with the exciting new era that the emerging crypto technology is bringing to the world and societies.

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