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Bitcoin (BTC), the leading cryptocurrency, has made headlines this week by consistently breaking all-time highs, recently surpassing the $126,000 mark for the first time.
However, the current price action has not only drawn attention from investors but also reignited discussions surrounding a notable prediction made two years ago. An anonymous user had forecasted that Bitcoin would achieve a peak on October 6, 2025—a prediction that came to fruition just yesterday.
Potential New Bear Market Ahead
Despite this milestone, Bitcoin has retraced to around $121,000 within hours after today’s record, leading to a wave of liquidations from long positions across various exchanges.
This rapid price fluctuation has led many to speculate that the recent peak could potentially mark the cycle’s all-time high, suggesting that Bitcoin might soon enter a new bear market phase.
The prediction made in December 2023 posits that if historical patterns hold true, the bear market low is expected to occur precisely 364 days later. This theory has gained traction amidst today’s volatility, with experts warning that a shift in market sentiment could be imminent.
Market analyst Doctor Profit has recently cautioned that despite the current bullish trend, the market is entering a precarious phase. He noted that while there is a prevailing sense of euphoria, underlying financial indicators are signaling a potential liquidity crisis.
Highlighting the current situation, Doctor Profit pointed to the Reverse Repo (RRP) market, which has plummeted from a peak of $2.2 trillion in mid-2022 to a mere $8–10 billion today.
This decline raises concerns about the stability of interbank liquidity, suggesting that the financial system may soon face significant dislocations if the RRP continues to dry up. Historical parallels from 2018, 2019, and 2023 indicate that such liquidity issues often precede major market corrections.
Moreover, US banks are reportedly grappling with approximately $395 billion in unrealized losses as of the second quarter of the year, putting additional pressure on their balance sheets.
Expert Sounds The Bitcoin Alarm
In the crypto space, recent trends reveal substantial inflows into exchange-traded funds (ETFs), with firms like BlackRock contributing over $1 billion in Bitcoin and $200 million in Ethereum just last week.
However, Doctor Profit contends that the market’s broader liquidity picture remains concerning. While retail traders are expressing optimism about a “liquidity flood,” the expert cautions that the influx of cash into money market funds could actually drain liquidity from broader markets rather than enhance it.
The current market environment is also characterized by a notable uptick in insider selling, according to the expert’s broader landscape analysis, in which executives are reportedly offloading shares at an unprecedented rate, even as retail investor inflows surge.
The expert believes that this alleged market manipulation often signals a market cycle peak, creating what he believes “a highly toxic mix” that could have adverse implications for future price movements.
In conclusion, Doctor Profit notes that the overall sentiment paints a bearish picture at a macro level. Both the crypto and stock markets are seen as being at an increased risk of entering a bear market after the fourth quarter.
Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com
