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Breaking News: Bitcoin, Ethereum, And XRP In Freefall: What’s Driving The Current Crypto Slump?
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Breaking News: Bitcoin, Ethereum, And XRP In Freefall: What’s Driving The Current Crypto Slump?

Bitcoin Still Stuck At $16,700, Why This Indicator Points To New Trajectory

Reynaldo Marquez
Reynaldo Marquez
1 year ago
2 mins read
Bitcoin

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Bitcoin has seen little to no action in its first two days of 2023; the cryptocurrency is bound for a spike in volatility, but in which direction? After experiencing months of downside pressure, there seems to be no room for further losses.

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Billion-Dollar Hedge Fund Is Betting Against Bitcoin And Grayscale, Not Just USDT

1 year ago

As of this writing, Bitcoin trades at $16,700 with sideways movement in the last 24 hours. On higher timeframes, BTC’s price records similar price action. Other cryptocurrencies in the top 10 by market capitalization follow this trajectory.

Bitcoin BTC BTCUSDT
BTC’s price moving sideways on the daily chart. Source: BTCUSDT Tradingview

Will History Repeat For Bitcoin? Pain Levels Max Out

According to analyst Will Clement from Reflexivity Research, the price of Bitcoin is approaching critical levels on its Net Realized Profit and Loss Over Market Cap. This indicator measures the capital gain or loss for the cryptocurrency.

As seen in the chart below, the metric is nearing levels of absolute capitulation when the crypto market and its participants are at their lowest. The industry approached a similar level in 2018 when BTC crashed from $20,000 and Ethereum from $1,400.

In 2014 and 2015, the metric dropped into this territory following the collapse of the biggest Bitcoin exchange in the world, Mt. Gox. Today, with the collapse of prominent crypto companies, such as FTX and Three Arrows Capital, the market is close to previous cycle bottoms.

Clemente said the following about this metric and its implication for the price of Bitcoin:

Capitulation, represented by net realized losses adjusted for market cap, is on-par with any prior macro Bitcoin bottom. Major pain is being felt in this market.

Bitcoin BTC BTCUSDT Chart 2
Based on this metric and previous performance, the BTC price could be near the bottom. Source: Will Clemente via Twitter

January Is The Worst Month To Expect Profits?

Despite the metrics and indicators pointing towards extreme market sentiment and capitulation levels, the timing might remain unfavorable for Bitcoin. The cryptocurrency might see further sideways price action and additional losses until there is a change in macroeconomic conditions.

Additional data from a pseudonym analyst indicates that January is historically a red month for the cryptocurrency. In the past two years, the returns for BTC in January were a historical exception.

Since 2015, the cryptocurrency has been trading in the red during January, recording some of its worst losses. 2023 could see BTC return to that dynamic, but this period of losses might precede two months of gains.

Bitcoin BTC BTCUSDT Chart 3
BTC monthly performance since 2015. Source: DaanCrypto via Twitter

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Litecoin

Litecoin Surges 7% In Strong 2023 Start, Jumps To 12th On Market Cap List

2 years ago

In February and March, Bitcoin saw its best performance, as seen in the chart. These historical gains might finally align with the extreme sentiment in the market and macroconditions.

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Reynaldo Marquez
Reynaldo Marquez

Reynaldo Marquez

A literature major, Reynaldo Márquez has been deeply immersed in the crypto industry since 2017. His journey began with translating articles for various crypto news outlets, a role he took on with zeal. In 2018, amidst a challenging market, he embraced his first writing assignment, demonstrating his unwavering commitment to the nascent industry and the promise of change it bears for many people worldwide.
In March 2021, he joined the prestigious crypto news outlet NewsBTC and Bitcoinist, where he not only reported on the latest crypto news but also had the privilege of interviewing some of the industry's most influential figures. A year later, his dedication and hard work were recognized, and he was promoted to Managing Editor, a position he currently holds with pride.
He believes in honesty, good communication, hard work, and the power of cryptocurrency and its potential to transform people's lives, especially those alienated by the legacy financial system. Born in 1992 in Venezuela, Reynaldo is familiar with how governments and central banks can negatively affect people, their everyday lives, and their futures by creating inflation and erasing their hopes for a better future. Thus, like many Venezuelans, he embraced this new technology to help him and his family navigate difficult times.
In another life, Reynaldo would have pursued a career as an investigator, most likely tracking down the origins of the Cyberpunk movement with the publication of William Gibson’s ‘Neuromancer.’ The intersection between fiction and reality, with the materialization of Bitcoin in 2009, would have allowed him to dive deep into the crypto sphere as something more than a financial phenomenon but also a cultural shift in society that was brewing since the XX century, and maybe even sooner, in the XIX century with the publication of Henry David Thoreau’s ‘Civil Disobedience.’
But that’s for another life. In this one, Reynaldo has been trading to improve his trading skills. Since 2023, he has been trying to learn Python to create successful strategies and find ways to execute them. It is a difficult task, which continues to keep him busy today and will most likely continue to keep him busy in the near and long term.
In his free time, he enjoys lifting heavy objects, reading, watching movies, and listening to his favorite music. Some of his favorite authors are Walt Whitman, William Faulkner, Allen Ginsberg, James Baldwin, Raymond Carver, Ray Bradbury, George Orwell, Mario Vargas Llosa, Reinaldo Arenas, Rafael Cadenas, and many others. Lately, he has been primarily interested in reading about dystopic societies, a topic that deeply resonates with the crypto industry.
Since 2023, he has lived in Spain with his wife. He loves the weather, the food, and the people and their culture. They both expect to travel much more within the country they now call home and beyond its border. He hopes to retire with his wife, maybe in a quiet place near a beach, but most likely in a city close to a library and a university with his kids and, hopefully, grandkids.

Disclaimer: The information found on NewsBTC is for educational purposes only. It does not represent the opinions of NewsBTC on whether to buy, sell or hold any investments and naturally investing carries risks. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use information provided on this website entirely at your own risk.

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Reason to trust

Strict editorial policy that focuses on accuracy, relevance, and impartiality
Created by industry experts and meticulously reviewed
The highest standards in reporting and publishing
How Our News is Made

Strict editorial policy that focuses on accuracy, relevance, and impartiality

Ad discliamer

Morbi pretium leo et nisl aliquam mollis. Quisque arcu lorem, ultricies quis pellentesque nec, ullamcorper eu odio.

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