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Breaking News: Coinbase Confirms DOJ Investigation Following Major Security Incident

Crypto Won’t See Bull-Run Anytime Soon, This Expert Explains Why

Reynaldo Marquez
Reynaldo Marquez
1 year ago
2 mins read
Bitcoin BTC BTCUSDT Crypto

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The crypto market is stuck in a tight range as larger cryptocurrencies are unable to break above key levels of resistance. The sector has been mostly inclined to the downside since September when Ethereum completed “The Merge”.

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At the time of writing, Bitcoin (BTC) trades at $19,500 with a 2% profit in the last 24 hours while Ethereum records a 3% profit over the same period. Other cryptocurrencies follow a similar trajectory during today’s trading session with XRP and Cardano amongst the worst-performing assets in the sector.

Bitcoin BTC BTCUSDT
BTC’s price moving sideways on the daily chart. Source: BTCUSDT Tradingview

Crypto And Global Markets Close To A Bottom, But Far From A Bull

The successful completion of “The Merge” left the crypto market without a narrative of its own. Thus, the nascent asset class has been moving in tandem with traditional equities and major indexes.

Macroeconomic forces have been dominating the price action in risk-on assets, most of crypto and equities, as the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) rushes to slow down inflation. The financial institution has been hiking interest rates unleashing a bear market that has rippled across the financial world.

In this situation, every market participant wants to know when crypto will finally bottom out. In order for this to happen, equities must find a bottom first, and according to Jurrien Timmer, Director of Macro for Fidelity, this might be close to happening.

Via his official Twitter handle, Timmer compared the current situation with the 1940 to 1947 inflationary periods in the United States. The North American country was going through a period of high inflation after World War II.

Timmer referred to this situation as a fiscal/monetary cocktail, the country was recovering from a major conflict with most of the world in ruins, still hurting from the massive expending and low resources. At that time, the S&P 500 saw a 30% decline.

Right now, this index is approaching those lows as it follows a similar trajectory. As seen in the chart below, the S&P 500 proceeded to move sideways for multiple years as inflation peaked at 19.6%. In comparison, today’s inflation stood at 8.9% at its highest month-to-month metric. Timmer said:

The 1946-49 bear market had a nominal decline of 30% and a real decline of 46% (amid 20% inflation). It was entirely a driven by valuations. The analog suggests we are near the bottom, but a long way from the next bull.

Crypto Bitcoin BTC BTCUSDT Chart 2
Source: Jurrien Timmer via Twitter

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Other experts expect a similar scenario for Bitcoin and the crypto market. This might be positive news for long-term holders looking to accumulate at current levels, but not for those betting on a new bull run in 2022 or even 2023.

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Reynaldo Marquez
Reynaldo Marquez

Reynaldo Marquez

A literature major, Reynaldo Márquez has been deeply immersed in the crypto industry since 2017. His journey began with translating articles for various crypto news outlets, a role he took on with zeal. In 2018, amidst a challenging market, he embraced his first writing assignment, demonstrating his unwavering commitment to the nascent industry and the promise of change it bears for many people worldwide.
In March 2021, he joined the prestigious crypto news outlet NewsBTC and Bitcoinist, where he not only reported on the latest crypto news but also had the privilege of interviewing some of the industry's most influential figures. A year later, his dedication and hard work were recognized, and he was promoted to Managing Editor, a position he currently holds with pride.
He believes in honesty, good communication, hard work, and the power of cryptocurrency and its potential to transform people's lives, especially those alienated by the legacy financial system. Born in 1992 in Venezuela, Reynaldo is familiar with how governments and central banks can negatively affect people, their everyday lives, and their futures by creating inflation and erasing their hopes for a better future. Thus, like many Venezuelans, he embraced this new technology to help him and his family navigate difficult times.
In another life, Reynaldo would have pursued a career as an investigator, most likely tracking down the origins of the Cyberpunk movement with the publication of William Gibson’s ‘Neuromancer.’ The intersection between fiction and reality, with the materialization of Bitcoin in 2009, would have allowed him to dive deep into the crypto sphere as something more than a financial phenomenon but also a cultural shift in society that was brewing since the XX century, and maybe even sooner, in the XIX century with the publication of Henry David Thoreau’s ‘Civil Disobedience.’
But that’s for another life. In this one, Reynaldo has been trading to improve his trading skills. Since 2023, he has been trying to learn Python to create successful strategies and find ways to execute them. It is a difficult task, which continues to keep him busy today and will most likely continue to keep him busy in the near and long term.
In his free time, he enjoys lifting heavy objects, reading, watching movies, and listening to his favorite music. Some of his favorite authors are Walt Whitman, William Faulkner, Allen Ginsberg, James Baldwin, Raymond Carver, Ray Bradbury, George Orwell, Mario Vargas Llosa, Reinaldo Arenas, Rafael Cadenas, and many others. Lately, he has been primarily interested in reading about dystopic societies, a topic that deeply resonates with the crypto industry.
Since 2023, he has lived in Spain with his wife. He loves the weather, the food, and the people and their culture. They both expect to travel much more within the country they now call home and beyond its border. He hopes to retire with his wife, maybe in a quiet place near a beach, but most likely in a city close to a library and a university with his kids and, hopefully, grandkids.

Disclaimer: The information found on NewsBTC is for educational purposes only. It does not represent the opinions of NewsBTC on whether to buy, sell or hold any investments and naturally investing carries risks. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use information provided on this website entirely at your own risk.

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Reason to trust

Strict editorial policy that focuses on accuracy, relevance, and impartiality
Created by industry experts and meticulously reviewed
The highest standards in reporting and publishing
How Our News is Made

Strict editorial policy that focuses on accuracy, relevance, and impartiality

Ad discliamer

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Disclaimer: The information found on NewsBTC is for educational purposes only. It does not represent the opinions of NewsBTC on whether to buy, sell or hold any investments and naturally investing carries risks. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use information provided on this website entirely at your own risk.

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