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crypto market cycle psychology

Why The Crypto Market Cycle Could Be In “Disbelief” Phase 

Tony "The Bull" by Tony "The Bull"
3 months ago
in Crypto
Reading Time: 3 mins read

All markets are cyclical, but few show such recurring cyclical performance like the crypto market. Bitcoin, for example, rallies every four years like clockwork revolving around the halving event — an event which slashes the new flow of supply in half. 

But in a new chart, the total cryptocurrency market cap is closely following a “psychology of a market cycle” diagram and it could suggest that the market is current in the “disbelief” phase. 

Crypto Market Cycles Explained

Cyclical behavior is found everywhere. The sun rises and falls, seasons change, and the planets orbit the sun. Nearly every fashion styles drop out of favor only for several years later to again become the hottest new trend. 

Related Reading: This “Super” Buy Signal Suggests The Crypto Bull Trend Is Strengthening

Financial markets that were at one point profitable and exciting can become painful to look at. At the point of the most extreme pain, anger, and depression, a new uptrends begins from a bear market while most are frozen in fear.  This part of a market cycle, is called “disbelief” and that’s exactly where the crypto market could be according to the chart below. 

crypto market cycle psychology TOTAL_2023-03-08_18-42-13

Is crypto in disbelief? | TOTAL on TradingView.com

“A Sucker’s Rally” Or “Disbelief”

The comparison begins at the peak of euphoria. Elon Musk was calling himself the “Dogefather” on Saturday Night Live and Mark Zuckerberg’s sister was making cringeworthy crypto parody videos.  Everyone was gonna make it. 

But they weren’t gonna make it, and they didn’t quite know it yet — the crypto winter was only just beginning. After months of easy money, it is just as easy to become complacent. Many even bought the dip. This made things worse psychologically when new lows began and anxiety kicked in. 

Denial turned to panic and then quickly capitulation when the LUNA collapse wiped out 3AC and started the initial contagion in the crypto market. The domino effect brought down asset prices enough to cripple FTX and put Sam Bankman-Fried behind bars. “Why did the government allow this to happen,” a description on the chart reads. Sound familiar?

Related Reading: Total Crypto Market Triggers Golden Cross, Despite “Deadly” Bitcoin Counterpart

Who wouldn’t be angry? Investors are out billions of dollars between FTX, BlockFi, and so many others. It’s a depressing thought. According to the to the chart, things could soon get better across crypto, but will anyone believe it?

The chart itself and the psychology of each stage of the market cycle follow shocking well. The current sentiment across crypto is that the recent upside is nothing more than a “sucker’s rally.” If this chart and the psychology is correct, few will be greedy enough while the crypto market has been fearful. 

"How did the government allow this to happen?" was a fairly common response to the FTX collapse after the information came out. Is it time to start believing again? $TOTAL #Crypto pic.twitter.com/6HqjbsfRAK

— Tony "The Bull" (@tonythebullBTC) March 9, 2023

Follow @TonyTheBullBTC on Twitter or join the TonyTradesBTC Telegram for exclusive daily market insights and technical analysis education. Please note: Content is educational and should not be considered investment advice. Featured image from iStockPhoto, Charts from TradingView.com
Tags: cryptocyclesMarket Cappsychologytotaltotal crypto market cap
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Tony "The Bull"

Tony "The Bull"

Tony is the “always-on” Editorial Director and Head of Research at NewsBTC, leading a talented team of writers and editors across several different global time zones. Tony is also the founder of CoinChartist.io – an educational website focused on crypto trading. Partners include Elliott Wave International, TradingView, and more. Tony’s background includes an extensive, award-winning media production career and over fifteen years of publishing operations and management. In the past, Tony has founded several media websites and his content has been read billions of times. Past clients include the BBC, Fidelity, and many others. Tony "The Bull" is a level 3 CMT student (passed level 1 & 2), technical analyst, Bitcoin supporter, and avid speculator. He owns a python named Satoshi. Tony longs for the day when money is separated from the state. Tony is deeply fascinated by core market principles such as Elliott Wave Theory as they tie into mathematics like Fibonacci ratios. Market timing though DeMark indicators, Ichimoku, Gann tools, or Hurst Cycle Theory are also of key interest. Tony provides completely original content driven by exclusive, independent research. For more insights and education from Tony, check out his free TonyTradesBTC Telegram channel. Follow @TonyTheBullBTC on Twitter. You can also follow @CoinChartist_io on Twitter and subscribe on YouTube.

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