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As the Bitcoin (BTC) price momentum begins to wane, the market’s leading cryptocurrency has retraced to the $110,000 mark, raising concerns about a potential shift into a new bearish cycle.
CryptoBirb, a noted trader and analyst, suggested in a recent social media analysis that Bitcoin has only about 60 days of growth left, indicating that it is currently 93% into its cycle, which has lasted 1,007 days.
This analysis aligns with the ongoing Cycle Peak Countdown indicator, hinting at a critical juncture for the leading cryptocurrency as it approaches the conclusion of its current bullish phase.
Potential Peak And Bear Market Timing
In examining historical cycles, CryptoBirb highlights significant patterns that may inform future price movements. The analyst points out the duration of past cycles: from around 350 days in the early years to over 1,000 days in more recent cycles.
Presently, Bitcoin’s trajectory is reportedly tracking toward approximately 1,060 to 1,100 days, placing it in the final 5-8% of this current bullish cycle, holding significant implications for the broader digital asset market as well.
The Bitcoin Halving which took place last April is also a pivotal factor. Historical data reveals that previous Halvings have led to peaks in price approximately 492 days later, suggesting a target window between October 19 and November 20, 2025.
This timeline reinforces the notion that the market is merely 60 days away from a potential peak, with historical cycles indicating that the next significant bear market may not occur until 2026.
CryptoBirb also outlines the patterns observed during past bear markets, noting that they typically last between 364 and 411 days, with average losses around 66%. If such a scenario plays out, the next bearish phase could see BTC retracing toward $37,000 once again.
Bitcoin Support And Resistance Levels
August and September have historically been challenging months for Bitcoin, with average returns dipping significantly. However, October and November are traditionally among the strongest months, aligning perfectly with the anticipated cycle peak.
From a technical standpoint, Bitcoin’s current price sits just above key support levels, with the weekly chart indicating a mean-based support of $97,094 and a critical resistance level at $117,058.
The analyst advised monitoring these key price levels closely in the coming weeks, as movements below $110,000 could signal a bearish trend. BTC is currently holding just above this support floor after increased volatility.
Despite this, on-chain metrics remain relatively healthy, with mining costs around $97,124 and no immediate signs of capitulation. Although recent exchange-traded fund (ETF) flows have shown outflows, the overall market structure suggests a cautious optimism.
To conclude, CryptoBirb notes that while the current sentiment may be mixed, the convergence of cycle mathematics, Halving events, and historical seasonality suggests that the market could be gearing up for a significant finale in the fourth quarter.
Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com
