Ethereum Risk-Reward Ratio Is Now Attractive, Brokerage Firm Explains

Ash Tiwari

6 months ago

3 mins read

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Ethereum (ETH) now offers an attractive risk-reward ratio, according to analysts at research and brokerage firm Bernstein. Despite underperforming compared to other major cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin (BTC), Solana (SOL), and XRP for most of 2024, Ethereum’s strong fundamentals may set the stage for a potential rally.

Why Is Ethereum Struggling? Bernstein Analysts Explain

Ethereum, the second-largest cryptocurrency with a market cap exceeding $430 billion, may be on the verge of significant positive price action. Bernstein analysts suggest that ETH’s fundamentals remain strong despite its underperformance, making it an appealing investment opportunity.

To put Ethereum’s performance into perspective, on a year-to-date (YTD) basis, Bitcoin and Solana have surged 125% and 122%, respectively, while ETH has only managed a 57% increase.

In a client note shared today, analysts led by Gautam Chhugani highlighted several factors contributing to Ethereum’s struggles. One issue is that ETH has not established itself as a store of value to the same extent as BTC. Additionally, the leading smart contract platform faces increasing competition from low-latency Layer 1 blockchains such as Solana, Sui, and Aptos.

The note also pointed out that Ethereum’s reliance on Layer 2 blockchains, including Optimism, Arbitrum, and Base, often redirects users away from Ethereum’s main chain. This hampers user retention and limits transaction fee growth, creating a headwind for ETH’s price momentum.

Is Now The Right Time To Buy ETH?

Bernstein analysts argue that Ethereum’s outlook could improve substantially, particularly in light of Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump’s recent election victory. Following Trump’s win, the total cryptocurrency market cap has surged over 45%, surpassing $3.5 trillion. Ethereum has been one of the biggest beneficiaries of this rally, gaining 46% since the election compared to Bitcoin’s 41% and Solana’s 36%.

The analysts also noted key developments that could support Ethereum’s growth moving forward. They highlighted the increasing likelihood of staking yield approval in Ethereum exchange-traded funds (ETFs) under a Trump-led, crypto-friendly Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). The analysts explained:

We believe, under a new Trump 2.0 crypto-friendly SEC, ETH staking yield will likely be approved.

The analysts added that Ethereum’s current yield rate of 3% could increase to as high as 4% to 5%, which could be an attractive yield rate for investors in a declining interest rate environment. Further, the recently observed growth in Ethereum ETFs in the form of higher inflows could benefit ETH.

Although ETH ETFs had a lukewarm launch, they have recently outperformed Bitcoin ETFs in daily inflows. For instance, on November 29, spot ETH ETFs in the US attracted $332.9 million in inflows, compared to $320 million for Bitcoin ETFs.

In addition, Ethereum’s transition to a proof-of-stake (PoS) consensus algorithm in September 2023 and the protocol’s burn mechanism have stabilized ETH’s total supply around 120 million. Of these, about 28% is tied in staking contracts while roughly 10% is in lending protocols or Layer 2 bridges.

With a high proportion – close to 60% – of total ETH supply unmoved in the past year, the analysts at Bernstein believe the digital asset might benefit from favourable demand-supply dynamics. At press time, ETH trades at $3,644, down 1.8% in the past 24 hours.

Featured image from Unsplash, chart from Tradingview.com

Ash Tiwari

Ash is a dedicated crypto researcher and blockchain enthusiast with a passion for diving deep into the evolving world of decentralized technologies. With a background in writing and a natural curiosity for how digital assets are shaping the future, he has immersed himself in various sectors of the cryptocurrency space, including decentralized finance (DeFi), NFTs, and liquidity mining. His journey into crypto started with a desire to fully understand the technology behind it, leading him to explore and engage with these systems firsthand.

Ash’s approach to DeFi goes beyond surface-level research as he actively participates in decentralized protocols, testing their functionality to gain a deeper understanding of how they operate. From experimenting with staking mechanisms to exploring liquidity mining strategies, he is hands-on in his exploration, which allows him to provide practical, real-world insights that go far beyond theoretical knowledge. This immersive experience has helped him develop a comprehensive grasp of smart contracts, token governance, and the broader implications of decentralized platforms on the future of finance.

In the NFT space, Ash’s interest is driven by the technology’s potential to reshape ownership and creativity in the digital age. He has explored various NFT projects, gaining insights into how these digital assets function within different ecosystems. His focus is on understanding the evolving relationship between creators and communities, as well as the innovative uses of blockchain technology to establish authenticity and provenance in the digital world. Ash’s research in this area often touches on the intersection of culture, technology, and community-driven projects.

A key area of his expertise lies in liquidity mining, where he has engaged with various decentralized platforms to understand how liquidity provision contributes to the functionality and security of DeFi ecosystems. Ash’s hands-on involvement has allowed him to analyze the risks, rewards, and broader implications of liquidity pools, giving him a well-rounded perspective on this integral part of DeFi. His understanding of risk management and protocol design allows him to provide insights into how these systems can be navigated effectively, with an emphasis on both opportunity and caution.

When it comes to communicating these complex topics, Ash’s writing is grounded in clarity and depth. He excels at breaking down intricate blockchain concepts into easily digestible information for a wide audience. Whether explaining the workings of decentralized exchanges or outlining the future potential of blockchain technology, Ash ensures that his content is accessible to both those new to the space and experienced participants looking for deeper insights.

Beyond DeFi and NFTs, Ash explores a wide array of emerging blockchain applications. His research spans areas like cross-chain technologies, decentralized governance, and blockchain’s potential to integrate with traditional finance. He is continuously learning and adapting to the latest developments, ensuring that his insights are both timely and relevant. His interest extends to how these technologies are creating new possibilities for decentralization, transparency, and trust in a variety of industries.

Ash’s commitment to engaging with the crypto space firsthand gives him a unique perspective that goes beyond what can be learned from research alone. His practical involvement allows him to stay ahead of the curve, offering readers and enthusiasts a clear and comprehensive understanding of the rapidly evolving world of blockchain. Whether delving into the technical mechanics of DeFi or exploring the cultural impact of NFTs, Ash’s approach is always rooted in curiosity, research, and a desire to make this technology accessible to all.

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