How The 55% Bitcoin Correction Revives Comparisons To Past Bull Cycle

Tony "The Bull" Severino

1 year ago

3 mins read

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Bitcoin price is still trading at more than $25,000 less than the local highs set earlier in the year, and bulls have a lot of ground to reclaim.

However, the lost ground might not be so bad after all, as it has brought the current market cycle a lot closer to past bull cycle comparisons, which could shed some light on what’s left for Bitcoin in terms of price action in the months ahead.

Bitcoin Collapse Puts Market Cycle On Par With Previous Bull Run

Following a sharp more than 55% decline across the board in cryptocurrencies – even the top dog Bitcoin – the market is mixed on whether or not the bull run has ended and if a new bear market has begun.

The standard definition of a bear market in “securities” is a 20% or more decline. By those standards Bitcoin is in a bear market every other week and has been in one since April 2021.

The massive plunge was among the worst monthly declines on record and the most devastating Q2 in crypto history – and it might have been enough of a drop to prevent a full fledged crypto bear market.

It also has brought prices back down to a level that’s a lot more on par with past bull market cycles.

The recent crash put this cycle on par with the last | Source: BLX on TradingView.com

Will The Parabolic Curve In Crypto Behave The Same Way Again?

The chart above takes an exact carbon copy of the 2016 and 2017 bull market, and juxtaposes it over the current market cycle. A similar parabolic curve is drawn to show the possible trajectory.

From 2015 through 2018, Bitcoin price grinded against the support curve the entire way up. There was very little divergence from the rounding, upward trending line.

Related Reading | Why The Next Bitcoin Bear Market Will Be The Worst Yet

There’s no denying this recent market cycle is very different than the last, but the recent 55% collapse has made things a lot more similar in scope.

Much like in early 2019 Bitcoin price deviated away from the curve, then overcorrected back down to it, the leading cryptocurrency by market cap could have done the very same thing from April through the recent bottom put in around the start of this month.

There’s still some room between today and the next bump into the parabolic curve. This could suggest there’s more sideways ahead, but further downside is likely limited thanks to what has already been a large enough correction.

Follow @TonySpilotroBTC on Twitter or via the TonyTradesBTC Telegram. Content is educational and should not be considered investment advice.

Featured image from iStockPhoto, Charts from TradingView.com

Tony "The Bull" Severino

Tony "The Bull" Severino, CMT, is a distinguished figure in the cryptocurrency analysis sector, renowned for his in-depth technical expertise and innovative approach to market trends. As the Head of Research at NewsBTC, Tony leads a team dedicated to providing cutting-edge insights and forecasts, helping both novice and experienced traders navigate the complexities of the crypto market.
A seasoned Chartered Market Technician, Tony's prowess in identifying and capitalizing on market patterns is unmatched. His academic and professional journey in market analysis has firmly established him as a leading authority in technical trading strategies. Tony’s approach is heavily influenced by the principles of Elliott Wave Theory, a method known for its rigorous assessment of investor psychology and price movements.

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In addition to his educational initiatives, Tony is a prolific author and a dominant voice in the crypto community. He writes the CoinChartist VIP newsletter, a weekly dispatch that has become a staple among crypto enthusiasts, revered for its insightful analysis and actionable trading advice. This newsletter has consistently ranked as a best-seller on SubStack, boasting thousands of subscribers who rely on Tony’s expertise to guide their trading strategies.

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Before his ascent in the financial analysis world, Tony honed his skills in journalism. His background in this field has endowed him with a unique ability to present intricate market dynamics in a clear and compelling manner, making his insights highly sought after by a broad audience that ranges from casual readers to professional traders.
His professional affiliations underscore his commitment to excellence and continuous learning. As a partner of Elliott Wave International and TradingView, Tony collaborates with other leading experts to enhance his knowledge and skills. His active membership in the CMT Association further aligns him with the highest standards of industry practices and ethics.

Tony’s nickname, "The Bull," aptly reflects his aggressive and optimistic outlook on the cryptocurrency markets. His forecasts often anticipate significant upturns, earning him a reputation for bullish predictions that have frequently led to lucrative outcomes for those who follow his advice.

In summary, Tony "The Bull" Severino, CMT, is more than just a technical analyst; he is a mentor, educator, and innovator whose influence in the cryptocurrency space continues to grow. His dedication to advancing the understanding of market forces and his commitment to providing high-quality, reliable analysis make him a pivotal figure in the world of cryptocurrency trading.

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