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Breaking News: Bitcoin Hits ATH Of $112,000, Expert Predicts Rally Is Just Beginning
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Breaking News: Bitcoin Hits ATH Of $112,000, Expert Predicts Rally Is Just Beginning

Is $77,600 The Next Step For Bitcoin? On-Chain Pricing Model Hints So

Keshav Verma
Keshav Verma
1 year ago
2 mins read
Bitcoin

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Data from a Bitcoin pricing model based on an on-chain indicator suggests that $77,600 may be the level where the asset will see its next peak.

Bitcoin MVRV Pricing Bands Could Provide Hints About What’s Next

In a new post on X, analyst Ali discussed what the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) Pricing Bands model could suggest about the cryptocurrency’s future.

The MVRV ratio is a popular on-chain indicator that compares the Bitcoin market cap and realized cap. The former is just the total valuation of the asset at the current spot price, while the latter is a model that calculates the asset’s cap by assuming the “true” value of any coin in circulation is the price at which it was last transferred on the blockchain.

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The previous transfer of any coin on the network was likely the last time it changed hands, and thus, the price at that time would be its current cost basis. As such, the realized cap keeps track of the sum of the cost basis of every investor in the market.

Therefore, the MVRV ratio tells us how the value the investors hold (the market cap) compares against the value they put in (the realized cap).

Based on this indicator, the on-chain analytics firm Glassnode has developed a pricing bands model. Below is a chart showing what these pricing bands look like.

Bitcoin MVRV Pricing Bands
The different pricing bands based on the MVRV mean | Source: @ali_charts on X

The pricing bands in this model represent levels corresponding to a specific deviation from the mean for the MVRV ratio. From the chart, it’s visible that the cryptocurrency is currently above the price level, corresponding to a +0.5 standard deviation (SD) from the mean for the indicator.

More specifically, the price level around $65,100 would be where the MVRV ratio would be +0.5 SD above its mean. The next major pricing band in this model is +1 SD, which currently corresponds to around $77,600.

In the past, this level has been where at least local tops have been probable to form for BTC. As is visible in the graph, the rally top back in March also occurred when BTC broke this level.

“Based on the MVRV Pricing Bands, if Bitcoin continues to trade above $65,125, the next local BTC top before a brief correction could be around $77,593!” notes the analyst.

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From the current spot price of the cryptocurrency, a potential rally to a new all-time high of $77,593 would mean an increase of more than 11% for the asset. It now remains to be seen how the asset’s price will develop from here and whether it will be able to maintain above the +0.5 SD MVRV level.

BTC Price

Since its sharp surge earlier, Bitcoin’s bullish momentum appears to have cooled off as the asset has fallen to sideways movement around the $69,700 mark.

Bitcoin Price Chart
Looks like the price of the coin has retraced a bit since its earlier high | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView
Featured image from Kanchanara on Unsplash.com, Glassnode.com, chart from TradingView.com
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Keshav Verma
Keshav Verma

Keshav Verma

Keshav is currently a senior writer at NewsBTC and has been attached to the website since June 14, 2021.

Read more

Keshav has been writing for many years, first as a hobbyist and later as a freelancer. He has experience working in a variety of niches, even fiction at one point, but the cryptocurrency industry has been the longest he has been attached to.

In terms of official educational qualifications, Keshav holds a bachelor’s degree in Physics from one of the premier institutes of India, the University of Delhi (DU). He started the degree with an aim of eventually making a career in Physics, but the onset of COVID led to a shift in plans. The virus meant that the college classes had to be delivered in the online-mode and with it came free time for him to explore other passions.

Initially only seeking to make some beer money, Keshav unexpectedly landed clients offering real projects, after which there was no looking back. Writing was something he had always enjoyed and to be able to do it for a living was like a dream come true.

Keshav completed his Physics degree in 2022 and has been focusing on his writing career since, but that doesn’t mean his passion for Physics has ended. He eventually plans to re-enter university to obtain a masters degree in the same field, but perhaps only to satiate his own interest rather than for using it as a means to find employment..

Keshav has found blockchain and its concepts fascinating ever since he started going down the rabbit-hole back in 2020. On-chain analysis in particular has been something he likes to research more about, which is why his NewsBTC pieces tend to involve it in some form.

Being of the science background, Keshav likes if concepts are clear and consistent, so he generally explains the indicators he talks about in a bit of detail so that the readers can perhaps come out having understood and learnt something new.

As for hobbies, Keshav is super into football, anime, and videogames. He enjoys football not only as a watcher, but also as a player. For games, Keshav generally tends towards enjoying singleplayer adventures, with EA FC (formerly FIFA) being the only online game he is active in. Though, perhaps due to being ultra-focused on the game, he is today a semi-pro on the EA FC scene, regularly participating in tournaments and sometimes even taking back prize money.

Because of his enthusiasm for anime and games, he also self-learned Japanese along the way to consume some of the untranslated gems out there. The skill didn’t merely remain as just a hobby, either, as he put it to productive use during his exploration for small-time gigs at the start of COVID, fulfilling a couple of Japanese-to-English translation jobs.

Keshav is also big into fitness, with agility and acceleration-related workouts making a big part of his program due to the relevance they have in football. On top of that, he also has a more traditional strength based program for the gym, which he does to maintain an overall fitness level of his body.

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Disclaimer: The information found on NewsBTC is for educational purposes only. It does not represent the opinions of NewsBTC on whether to buy, sell or hold any investments and naturally investing carries risks. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use information provided on this website entirely at your own risk.

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Reason to trust

Strict editorial policy that focuses on accuracy, relevance, and impartiality
Created by industry experts and meticulously reviewed
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