CryptoQuant Sound Alarm: Spot Bitcoin ETF Approval May Trigger Drop To $32,000, Here’s Why

Samuel Edyme

1 year ago

3 mins read

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A recent report from CryptoQuant has sparked discussions, suggesting that a Bitcoin spot exchange-traded fund (ETF) approval by the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) could lead to a significant market event.

This possibility arises amid the Bitcoin (BTC) price stabilizing above $40,000, leaving many market participants sitting on substantial unrealized profits.

The report by CryptoQuant particularly posits that this scenario could trigger a “sell the news” event, historically linked to market corrections.

Bitcoin Possible Drop To $32,000

CryptoQuant’s analysis points to the current state of Bitcoin holders as a reason for the possible drop in BTC price when the approval of spot Bitcoin ETF happens.

Particularly the short-term ones, experiencing unrealized profit margins of around 30%. According to CryptoQuant, such high-profit levels have often preceded price drops.

Additionally, the report notes an uptick in selling activity from Bitcoin miners, adding to the potential sell pressure on BTC. This, combined with the market’s anticipation of a spot Bitcoin ETF approval, could create a volatile environment, as highlighted by CryptoQuant.

Analyzing Bitcoin Miner Profitability: A Year in Review. | Source: CryptoQuant

Based on CryptoQuant’s analysis, during downturns within bullish markets, Bitcoin’s value often falls back to the level where short-term investors have historically realized their prices.

Considering this, the report suggests that in a scenario where “sell the news” occurs, Bitcoin’s value might see a downturn, with a possible dip to around “$32,000.”

Contrasting Views And Support Levels Amid ETF Speculations

The conversation around a Bitcoin spot ETF’s potential approval is not one-sided. Several analysts predict a positive outcome, with firms like Matrixport and prominent analysts like Michael van de Poppe suggesting that the approval could catapult Bitcoin’s price to new highs.

Matrixport anticipates that the approval of Bitcoin spot ETFs by the US SEC could drive BTC’s value to around $50,000 in early 2024. Van de Poppe echoes this sentiment, foreseeing a potential rise to the $47,000-$50,000 range.

#Bitcoin did test the lows, didn’t take the liquidity beneath the lows.

Anyway, correction seems over and pre-ETF we’re likely to test $47-50K.

Buy the dips. pic.twitter.com/Ar4mqvYRjJ

— Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) December 19, 2023

Additionally, while CryptoQuant predicts a possible drop to $32,000, other analysts’ prediction of BTC bottom doesn’t go that low. Analyst Ali, for instance, has highlighted a robust support zone between $37,150 and $38,360.

In case of a deeper correction, #Bitcoin finds solid support between $37,150 and $38,360. This zone is backed by 1.52 million addresses holding 534,000 $BTC.

Also, watch out for two resistance walls that could keep the #BTC uptrend at bay: one at $43,850 and another at $46,400. pic.twitter.com/NGm1XpMOLf

— Ali (@ali_charts) December 11, 2023

This range is reinforced by the activities of approximately 1.52 million addresses holding about 534,000 BTC. Notably, such a strong foundation of support might mitigate the risks of a drastic price fall even if a “sell the news” event were to occur following the spot ETF approval.

Bitcoin (BTC) price chart on TradingView — Bitcoin (BTC) price is moving sideways on the 4-hour chart. Source: BTC/USDT on TradingView.com

Featured image from Unsplash, Chart from TradingView

Samuel Edyme

Meet Samuel Edyme, Nickname - HIM-buktu. A web3 content writer, journalist, and aspiring trader, Edyme is as versatile as they come. With a knack for words and a nose for trends, he has penned pieces for numerous industry player, including AMBCrypto, Blockchain.News, and Blockchain Reporter, among others.

Edyme’s foray into the crypto universe is nothing short of cinematic. His journey began not with a triumphant investment, but with a scam. Yes, a Ponzi scheme that used crypto as payment roped him in. Rather than retreating, he emerged wiser and more determined, channeling his experience into over three years of insightful market analysis.

Before becoming the voice of reason in the crypto space, Edyme was the quintessential crypto degen. He aped into anything that promised a quick buck, anything ape-able, learning the ropes the hard way. These hands-on experience through major market events—like the Terra Luna crash, the wave of bankruptcies in crypto firms, the notorious FTX collapse, and even CZ’s arrest—has honed his keen sense of market dynamics.

When he isn’t crafting engaging crypto content, you’ll find Edyme backtesting charts, studying both forex and synthetic indices. His dedication to mastering the art of trading is as relentless as his pursuit of the next big story. Away from his screens, he can be found in the gym, airpods in, working out and listening to his favorite artist, NF. Or maybe he’s catching some Z’s or scrolling through Elon Musk’s very own X platform—(oops, another screen activity, my bad…)

Well, being an introvert, Edyme thrives in the digital realm, preferring online interaction over offline encounters—(don’t judge, that’s just how he is built). His determination is quite unwavering to be honest, and he embodies the philosophy of continuous improvement, or “kaizen,” striving to be 1% better every day. His mantras, “God knows best” and “Everything is still on track,” reflect his resilient outlook and how he lives his life.

In a nutshell, Samuel Edyme was born efficient, driven by ambition, and perhaps a touch fierce. He’s neither artistic nor unrealistic, and certainly not chauvinistic. Think of him as Bruce Willis in a train wreck—unflappable. Edyme is like trading in your car for a jet—bold. He’s the guy who’d ask his boss for a pay cut just to prove a point—(uhhh…). He is like watching your kid take his first steps. Imagine Bill Gates struggling with rent—okay, maybe that’s a stretch, but you get the idea, yeah. Unbelievable? Yes. Inconceivable? Perhaps.

Edyme sees himself as a fairly reasonable guy, albeit a bit stubborn. Normal to you is not to him. He is not the one to take the easy road, and why would he? That’s just not the way he roll. He has these favorite lyrics from NF’s “Clouds” that resonate deeply with him: “What you think's probably unfeasible, I've done already a hundredfold.”

PS—Edyme is HIM. HIM-buktu. Him-mulation. Him-Kardashian. Himon and Pumba. He even had his DNA tested, and guess what? He’s 100% Him-alayan. Screw it, he ate the opp.

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