Bear Phase Fractal Warns Of Pain, Bitcoin Bull Market To Remain Unbroken

Tony "The Bull" Severino

1 year ago

3 mins read

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The rug was just pulled across crypto, wiping out gains from the past week and then some. Bitcoin is now back at prices from March, and is at risk of falling deeper into a bear phase according to a fractal found in the recent price action.

What’s notable, is that the same fractal suggests that the bull market isn’t yet over, despite the change to a bear trend for the time being. Here’s what the trajectory of Bitcoin could look like based on Elliott Wave Theory, the LMACD, and the recent reversal across crypto.

Bitcoin Price Plummets Back Below $50,000, Matches Breakdown From 2019

A fractal is a repeating pattern that is found all throughout nature, or in this case, finance. On the price charts of coins, stocks, commodities and more, patterns can repeat again and again in a similar manner.

Each pattern can even result in similar price action upon completion. For example, Black Thursday matched the second plunge of the 2014-2015 bear market bottom.

$bitcoin bear market fractal bull$

Is this fractal from 2019 repeating once again? | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com

The recent price action in Bitcoin, almost perfectly matches the first major correction since the bull market began – back in June 2019. Both times the logarithmic MACD crossed bearish, and the candle structure on high timeframes is strikingly similar.

What Elliott Wave Theory And Momentum Indicators Say About The Bull Market

If the fractal is accurate and produces similar results, Bitcoin could spend the next six months or so in a downtrend. The bear phase could reach a similar scope and severity as the 2019 peak, considering that the recent price parabola has been broken.

A bear phase is more than likely to now follow, but that doesn’t necessarily mean the bull market is over.

$bitcoin bear market fractal bull 2$

Elliott waves could provide clues to this market cycle's conclusion | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com

For those unfamiliar with Elliott Wave Theory, the study focuses on market impulses based on extreme changes in sentiment.

Within each major “motive wave” are typically five impulse waves. If the primary wave is up, and Bitcoin has been in “always up” territory since its inception, then odd numbers waves are also up, with even waves moving against the primary trend.

Early 2019 would have acted as wave one of five, with the downtrend of wave two concluding on Black Thursday. That bounce began wave three, in which according to Elliott Wave characteristics, is “undeniable.”

Wave four is a bit more tricky. It can sure feel like the top is in, but if wave three just ended, Bitcoin bulls’ best hope is that wave four is next.

Wave four according to the practice, won’t ever retrace back into wave one’s path. This means that Bitcoin price will never again go below $13,800.

If it does, it could suggest a failure, and the top cryptocurrency could be in serious trouble.

Featured image from iStockPhotos, Charts from TradingView.com

Tony "The Bull" Severino

Tony "The Bull" Severino, CMT, is a distinguished figure in the cryptocurrency analysis sector, renowned for his in-depth technical expertise and innovative approach to market trends. As the Head of Research at NewsBTC, Tony leads a team dedicated to providing cutting-edge insights and forecasts, helping both novice and experienced traders navigate the complexities of the crypto market.
A seasoned Chartered Market Technician, Tony's prowess in identifying and capitalizing on market patterns is unmatched. His academic and professional journey in market analysis has firmly established him as a leading authority in technical trading strategies. Tony’s approach is heavily influenced by the principles of Elliott Wave Theory, a method known for its rigorous assessment of investor psychology and price movements.

Beyond his role at NewsBTC, Tony is the visionary founder of CoinChartist.io, an educational platform aimed at demystifying the nuances of cryptocurrency trading. CoinChartist.io serves as a valuable resource for traders seeking to enhance their technical analysis skills. The platform offers a range of learning tools and resources designed to empower traders with the knowledge to make informed trading decisions.

In addition to his educational initiatives, Tony is a prolific author and a dominant voice in the crypto community. He writes the CoinChartist VIP newsletter, a weekly dispatch that has become a staple among crypto enthusiasts, revered for its insightful analysis and actionable trading advice. This newsletter has consistently ranked as a best-seller on SubStack, boasting thousands of subscribers who rely on Tony’s expertise to guide their trading strategies.

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Before his ascent in the financial analysis world, Tony honed his skills in journalism. His background in this field has endowed him with a unique ability to present intricate market dynamics in a clear and compelling manner, making his insights highly sought after by a broad audience that ranges from casual readers to professional traders.
His professional affiliations underscore his commitment to excellence and continuous learning. As a partner of Elliott Wave International and TradingView, Tony collaborates with other leading experts to enhance his knowledge and skills. His active membership in the CMT Association further aligns him with the highest standards of industry practices and ethics.

Tony’s nickname, "The Bull," aptly reflects his aggressive and optimistic outlook on the cryptocurrency markets. His forecasts often anticipate significant upturns, earning him a reputation for bullish predictions that have frequently led to lucrative outcomes for those who follow his advice.

In summary, Tony "The Bull" Severino, CMT, is more than just a technical analyst; he is a mentor, educator, and innovator whose influence in the cryptocurrency space continues to grow. His dedication to advancing the understanding of market forces and his commitment to providing high-quality, reliable analysis make him a pivotal figure in the world of cryptocurrency trading.

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