Is This The Biggest Bitcoin Bull Run Ever? Analyst Says Yes!

Jake Simmons

1 year ago

3 mins read

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Crypto analyst TechDev (@TechDev_52) recently shared a detailed chart analysis suggesting that Bitcoin might be on the cusp of its most significant breakout to date. This analysis, backed by historical patterns and technical indicators, points to a potential shift in the market that could lead to unprecedented price levels for Bitcoin.

The chart provided by TechDev illustrates Bitcoin’s price action in USD alongside its price relative to the M1 money supply (BTC/M1). Historically, Bitcoin has exhibited distinct phases of parabolic price increases, known as “blowoff tops,” followed by sharp corrections. These blowoff tops are marked with green check marks on the chart, occurring in 2011, 2013, and 2017. Each of these peaks was followed by significant corrections.

Bitcoin breakout M1 money supply — Bitcoin Liquid Index vs Velocity of M1 Money Stock, 2-month chart | Source: X @TechDev_52

Notably, the 2021 peak did not result in a blowoff top, as indicated by the red cross on the chart. This deviation from historical patterns is significant because it suggests a possible change in market behavior.

TechDev’s chart also highlights a key pattern known as the “descending right-angled broadening formation.” This technical pattern is characterized by a series of lower highs and lower lows, creating a broadening wedge shape. The pattern typically signals a period of consolidation, where the price oscillates within the broadening trend lines before a decisive breakout. The chart shows that Bitcoin has recently broken out of this broadening wedge, indicating a potential shift from a consolidation phase to a new bullish trend.

The analyst commented, “Significant. Bitcoin has only seen blow-off tops after breakouts against M1 money supply. And the longer it’s consolidated, the longer it’s run. This breakout follows the longest consolidation yet. In fact, it represents a textbook breakout of a 5 year broadening wedge. The last 5 years have been corrective against M1. BTC is once again impulsive against it for the first time since 2017. We’ve never seen a Bitcoin breakout like this one.”

Bitcoin Could Outpace The 2021 Cycle

Another critical aspect of TechDev’s analysis is the breakout of Bitcoin against the M1 money supply. The M1 money supply includes physical currency and checkable deposits, representing the most liquid forms of money in the economy. TechDev points out that Bitcoin has broken out against M1 for the first time since March 2017. This breakout is particularly significant because it suggests that Bitcoin’s recent price increase is driven by intrinsic demand rather than merely an increase in the money supply.

TechDev comments on this breakout, stating: “You’re looking at the first breakout of Bitcoin against M1 money supply since March 2017 when it went historically parabolic for 9 months. Comparisons and trend projections involving 2021 may end up dramatically underestimating things. One interpretation: In 2021 BTC was carried to new USD highs by increased money supply. In 2024 it’s gotten there on its own demand (and thus broke out against M1). Add the anticipated M1 growth this time and we likely see BTC outpace expectations based in part on 2021.”

TechDev’s analysis underscores the importance of understanding Bitcoin’s performance relative to macroeconomic indicators like the M1 money supply. By breaking out against M1, Bitcoin demonstrates strong intrinsic demand, which is a bullish signal for future price movements. The historical patterns of blowoff tops following similar breakouts suggest that Bitcoin could be entering a new phase of price discovery, potentially leading to new all-time highs.

At press time, BTC traded at $69,032.

Bitcoin price — Bitcoin bounced off the 20-day EMA, 1-day chart | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com

Featured image created with DALL·E, chart from TradingView.com

Jake Simmons

Jake Simmons, a dedicated crypto journalist, has been passionate about Bitcoin since 2016 when he first learned about it. Through his extensive work with NewsBTC.com and Bitcoinist.com, Jake has become a trusted voice in the crypto community, guiding newcomers and seasoned enthusiasts alike towards a deeper understanding of this dynamic field.

His mission is simple yet profound: to demystify Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies and make them accessible to everyone.
With a professional career in the Bitcoin and crypto scene that began right after graduating with a degree in Information Systems in 2017, Jake has immersed himself in the industry. Jake joined the NewsBTC Group in late 2022. His educational background provides him with the technical prowess and analytical skills necessary to dissect complex topics and present them in an understandable format. Whether you are a casual reader curious about Bitcoin or an investor seeking to navigate the latest market trends, Jake’s insights offer valuable perspectives that bridge the gap between complex technology and everyday usage.

Jake is not just a reporter on technological trends; he is a firm believer in the transformative potential of Bitcoin over traditional fiat currencies. To him, the current financial system is on the brink of chaos, propelled by unchecked government actions and flawed Keynesian economic policies. Drawing from the principles of the Austrian school of economics, Jake views Bitcoin not merely as a digital asset but as a crucial step towards rectifying a failing monetary system. His libertarian views reinforce his stance that just as the church was separated from the state, so too should money be freed from governmental control.

For Jake, Bitcoin represents more than just an investment; it's a peaceful revolution. He envisions a future where Bitcoin fosters a sustainable and responsible financial framework for generations to come. His advocacy is not about opposition but about evolution, about laying the groundwork for a system that prioritizes transparency and equity over secrecy and inequality.

As a journalist, Jake’s articles are crafted with the precision of a scholar and the passion of a true believer. He provides not only news but also thoughtful analysis that connects the dots between daily developments and larger economic theories. His work is a beacon for those lost in the technical jargon often associated with crypto discussions, illuminating the practical implications and benefits of these technologies.

In summary, Jake Simmons is not just reporting on a revolution; he wants to be part of it, fully committed to enhancing public understanding and adoption of Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies. His work is more than just a collection of articles; it’s a resource, a guide, and a companion for anyone ready to explore the potential of this digital frontier. Whether you are taking your first steps into crypto or are a veteran looking to stay on top of the latest trends, Jake’s insights provide clarity and foresight in an often unpredictable industry. Join him on this journey to reshape the world of finance, one post at a time.

You can engage with his latest takes on Twitter: @realJakeSimmons.

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