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Breaking News: LINK Price Climbs Following Chainlink's Deal With US Commerce Department, Eyes $30
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Breaking News: LINK Price Climbs Following Chainlink's Deal With US Commerce Department, Eyes $30

Bitcoin And Crypto Face Pressure: Impact Of Rising Real Yields

Jake Simmons
Jake Simmons
2 years ago
3 mins read
Bitcoin crypto real yields

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The intricate dance between Bitcoin, crypto and real yields is becoming increasingly pronounced. As the world of traditional finance grapples with the implications of shifting real yields, the BTC and crypto market is not immune to these fluctuations.

For the uninitiated, the ‘real yield’ refers to the yield on US treasuries, adjusted for inflation. This metric is pivotal in understanding the broader financial ecosystem, and its movements can have profound implications for risk assets, including Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.

Higher Real Yields = Bitcoin And Crypto Down

Renowned analyst @tedtalksmacro recently shed light on this intricate relationship, stating, “An important correlation – BTC + US real yields. Simply, higher real yields drive investors to cash and fixed-income… and out of ‘riskier’ assets like BTC and stocks.” This observation underscores the delicate balance that Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies maintain with the broader financial market.

The path of real yields is determined by two primary factors: inflation and nominal rates. With the Federal Reserve’s hiking cycle nearing its end, nominal yields are potentially at their zenith. However, the trajectory of inflation remains uncertain, and as @tedtalksmacro notes, it will “likely be the greater mover of real yields.”

Adding another layer of complexity, the US treasury’s recent influx of longer-dated issuance is exerting upward pressure on nominal yields, especially on the back-end. The 10-year, for instance, is trading at highs not witnessed since 2008.

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On the topic of inflation, expectations lean towards a decline in the coming months. As @tedtalksmacro astutely points out, “If you have been following along, [this would be] conducive to higher real yields. Higher real-yields are bearish for risk-assets.” This observation is particularly salient for the crypto community, as falling inflation, counterintuitively, might spell trouble for risk assets like Bitcoin.

The Federal Reserve’s aggressive rate hikes aim to curb inflation. Yet, the unintended consequence of this strategy, combined with sustained high rates, could be a rise in real yields. This makes fixed-income assets more appealing, potentially diverting investments away from riskier ventures like stocks and altcoins.

The crypto community awaits Jerome Powell’s address this Friday with bated breath. As @tedtalksmacro anticipates, Powell is likely to persist with the ‘higher for longer’ rhetoric, a stance the FOMC has maintained since late 2021. “Higher for longer + falling inflation + fresh duration issuance = higher real-yields = lower risk assets,” concludes @tedtalksmacro.

Will BTC And Crypto Fall Due To Jackson Hole?

Keith Alan, founder of Material Indicators, draws attention to historical patterns and potential market reactions to Jackson Hole. “Remember when FED Chair Powell spoke from Jackson Hole last year and his hawkish tone triggered a 29% BTC dump that took 5 months to recover? JPow returns to JHole this Friday and there are some similarities in the PA we are seeing now and the PA we saw leading up to last year’s speech.”

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Alan highlights the technical patterns observed in Bitcoin’s price movements leading up to Powell’s previous speech and the current scenario. However, he cautions against drawing direct parallels, emphasizing the changed macroeconomic conditions and Powell’s evolved communication style.

“To be clear, the similarities in the current PA, relative to last year’s PA do not mean that price will react the same way this time,” Alan states. He underscores the need for investors to be vigilant, yet not reactive, to the potential market volatility surrounding the upcoming Jackson Hole event. “We must expect JPow’s words to move markets.”

At press time, BTC traded at $26,589.

Bitcoin BTC price
BTC shows slight bounce, 1-day chart | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com
Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView.com
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Jake Simmons
Jake Simmons

Jake Simmons

Jake Simmons, a dedicated crypto journalist, has been passionate about Bitcoin since 2016 when he first learned about it. Through his extensive work with NewsBTC.com and Bitcoinist.com, Jake has become a trusted voice in the crypto community, guiding newcomers and seasoned enthusiasts alike towards a deeper understanding of this dynamic field.

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His mission is simple yet profound: to demystify Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies and make them accessible to everyone.
With a professional career in the Bitcoin and crypto scene that began right after graduating with a degree in Information Systems in 2017, Jake has immersed himself in the industry. Jake joined the NewsBTC Group in late 2022. His educational background provides him with the technical prowess and analytical skills necessary to dissect complex topics and present them in an understandable format. Whether you are a casual reader curious about Bitcoin or an investor seeking to navigate the latest market trends, Jake’s insights offer valuable perspectives that bridge the gap between complex technology and everyday usage.

Jake is not just a reporter on technological trends; he is a firm believer in the transformative potential of Bitcoin over traditional fiat currencies. To him, the current financial system is on the brink of chaos, propelled by unchecked government actions and flawed Keynesian economic policies. Drawing from the principles of the Austrian school of economics, Jake views Bitcoin not merely as a digital asset but as a crucial step towards rectifying a failing monetary system. His libertarian views reinforce his stance that just as the church was separated from the state, so too should money be freed from governmental control.

For Jake, Bitcoin represents more than just an investment; it's a peaceful revolution. He envisions a future where Bitcoin fosters a sustainable and responsible financial framework for generations to come. His advocacy is not about opposition but about evolution, about laying the groundwork for a system that prioritizes transparency and equity over secrecy and inequality.

As a journalist, Jake’s articles are crafted with the precision of a scholar and the passion of a true believer. He provides not only news but also thoughtful analysis that connects the dots between daily developments and larger economic theories. His work is a beacon for those lost in the technical jargon often associated with crypto discussions, illuminating the practical implications and benefits of these technologies.

In summary, Jake Simmons is not just reporting on a revolution; he wants to be part of it, fully committed to enhancing public understanding and adoption of Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies. His work is more than just a collection of articles; it’s a resource, a guide, and a companion for anyone ready to explore the potential of this digital frontier. Whether you are taking your first steps into crypto or are a veteran looking to stay on top of the latest trends, Jake’s insights provide clarity and foresight in an often unpredictable industry. Join him on this journey to reshape the world of finance, one post at a time.

You can engage with his latest takes on Twitter: @realJakeSimmons.

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Disclaimer: The information found on NewsBTC is for educational purposes only. It does not represent the opinions of NewsBTC on whether to buy, sell or hold any investments and naturally investing carries risks. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use information provided on this website entirely at your own risk.

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Reason to trust

Strict editorial policy that focuses on accuracy, relevance, and impartiality
Created by industry experts and meticulously reviewed
The highest standards in reporting and publishing
How Our News is Made

Strict editorial policy that focuses on accuracy, relevance, and impartiality

Ad discliamer

Morbi pretium leo et nisl aliquam mollis. Quisque arcu lorem, ultricies quis pellentesque nec, ullamcorper eu odio.

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