Bitcoin Bear Market Comparison Says It Is Almost Time For Bull Season

Tony "The Bull" Severino

1 year ago

3 mins read

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There is no denying that Bitcoin has been ripped to shreds by bears over the last several months after setting a new all-time high in November last year. Even with new highs, the rally is largely viewed as a failure without a dramatic cycle conclusion.

But what if that rally was part of a bear phase, that only now is about to end? In a new direct comparison between bear phases in Bitcoin since 2018, it could indicate that it is almost time for another bull season any day now.

Bull Market Cyclical Behavior

Months ago, the term “few” was thrown around by the crypto community because not enough people understood the potential of what Bitcoin could do for them financially. Today, very few people are expecting Bitcoin to rally from here.

Oftentimes, when the hive sentiment is at its most frothy, deep corrections set the masses straight. At the moment, Bitcoin bears are salivating for below $30,000, but they might not ever get it according to a new comparison.

Any market exhibits cyclical behavior on multiple timeframes. There are bear and bull markets, and even uptrends and downtrends within them that alternate based on moods.

But what if these alternating patterns of mood changes were predictable? That’s what the below comparison aims to find out.

This comparison chart says it is time's up for bears | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com

Bitcoin Bear Phases Compared

In the comparison above, the 2018 bear market, 2019 to 2020 bear phase, and the current consolidation phase are juxtaposed aside one another. Each fractal measures at roughly 460 days. Alternating between each bear phase, is a short bullish impulse that shocks the world.

Bull impulses last a mere 98 days, but tend to takes prices to unprecedented levels. At minimum, these bull phases have churned out more than 300% ROI. A 300% return from $40,000 would take the price per BTC to $120,000.

Each bear phase lasted just over 14 months. Edwin “Sedge” Coppock, creator of the technical indicator called the Coppock curve, found that the average time it takes for a human to get over mourning a loss was an average of 11 to 14 months. This, in theory, is how long it should take the average investor to get over their “loss” related to Bitcoin and are able to think positively again.

With only days potentially left until another bull impulse begins based on the above comparisons, will Bitcoin price really dip below $30,000 like the market is bracing for, or will a reversal catch the community off guard?

Follow @TonySpilotroBTC on Twitter or join the TonyTradesBTC Telegram for exclusive daily market insights and technical analysis education. Please note: Content is educational and should not be considered investment advice.

Featured image from iStockPhoto, Charts from TradingView.com

Tony "The Bull" Severino

Tony "The Bull" Severino, CMT, is a distinguished figure in the cryptocurrency analysis sector, renowned for his in-depth technical expertise and innovative approach to market trends. As the Head of Research at NewsBTC, Tony leads a team dedicated to providing cutting-edge insights and forecasts, helping both novice and experienced traders navigate the complexities of the crypto market.
A seasoned Chartered Market Technician, Tony's prowess in identifying and capitalizing on market patterns is unmatched. His academic and professional journey in market analysis has firmly established him as a leading authority in technical trading strategies. Tony’s approach is heavily influenced by the principles of Elliott Wave Theory, a method known for its rigorous assessment of investor psychology and price movements.

Beyond his role at NewsBTC, Tony is the visionary founder of CoinChartist.io, an educational platform aimed at demystifying the nuances of cryptocurrency trading. CoinChartist.io serves as a valuable resource for traders seeking to enhance their technical analysis skills. The platform offers a range of learning tools and resources designed to empower traders with the knowledge to make informed trading decisions.

In addition to his educational initiatives, Tony is a prolific author and a dominant voice in the crypto community. He writes the CoinChartist VIP newsletter, a weekly dispatch that has become a staple among crypto enthusiasts, revered for its insightful analysis and actionable trading advice. This newsletter has consistently ranked as a best-seller on SubStack, boasting thousands of subscribers who rely on Tony’s expertise to guide their trading strategies.

Tony is also celebrated for his literary contributions to the field. He is the author of the highest-rated Crypto Trading Journal on Amazon.com, a testament to his ability to communicate complex trading concepts in an accessible manner. This journal is widely regarded as an essential tool for traders aiming to track their progress and refine their strategies.

Before his ascent in the financial analysis world, Tony honed his skills in journalism. His background in this field has endowed him with a unique ability to present intricate market dynamics in a clear and compelling manner, making his insights highly sought after by a broad audience that ranges from casual readers to professional traders.
His professional affiliations underscore his commitment to excellence and continuous learning. As a partner of Elliott Wave International and TradingView, Tony collaborates with other leading experts to enhance his knowledge and skills. His active membership in the CMT Association further aligns him with the highest standards of industry practices and ethics.

Tony’s nickname, "The Bull," aptly reflects his aggressive and optimistic outlook on the cryptocurrency markets. His forecasts often anticipate significant upturns, earning him a reputation for bullish predictions that have frequently led to lucrative outcomes for those who follow his advice.

In summary, Tony "The Bull" Severino, CMT, is more than just a technical analyst; he is a mentor, educator, and innovator whose influence in the cryptocurrency space continues to grow. His dedication to advancing the understanding of market forces and his commitment to providing high-quality, reliable analysis make him a pivotal figure in the world of cryptocurrency trading.

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