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Bitcoin Bollinger Bands Are The Tightest Ever, What Happens Next?

Tony "The Bull" Severino
Tony "The Bull" Severino
1 year ago
3 mins read
bitcoin Bollinger Bands

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Last week, the 1W Bollinger Bands in Bitcoin reached its tightest level ever. The volatility measuring tool typically doesn’t give any indication of direction, however.

Using historical data, we’ve taken all previous instances of extreme lows and the resulting direction — up and down — and discovered the success rate of the signal.

Bollinger Band Width Reaches Historical Lows: What Does It Mean?

The Bollinger Bands are a complete trading system, designed by John Bollinger in the 1980s — an avid Bitcoin speculator. The tool uses a 20-period simple moving average (SMA) and two bands set at two standard deviations of the SMA.

As such, the “Bands” expand and contract based on volatility — a measure of how aggressively price moves within a time period. When the Bands tighten to extremes, it indicates a period of low volatility. This setup is called a Squeeze, which ultimately releases pent up energy and results in a large move. When price action picks up, the bands expand to represent the return of volatility.

According to Bollinger Band Width, a related tool designed to tell analysts how tight the bands on an easier to visually compare basis, the Bollinger Bands in BTCUSD are the tightest in the history of crypto. Notably, Ethereum and the TOTAL crypto market cap are also historically tight.

The technical indicator, however, doesn’t say anything about direction, only that something big is on the way. In the past, Bitcoin has broken out in either direction. But how many of these times were up? And how far did it climb?

Bitcoin Bollinger Bands

When will explosive volatility return? | BTCUSD on TradingView.com

Bitcoin Breakout Performance Analyzed: Average 669% ROI When Volatility Returns

Past performance is never a guarantee of future results, but from historical price data we can better understand the behavior in BTCUSD after such low volatility phases.

Of the nine total instances the Bitcoin weekly Bollinger Bands got this tight, the top cryptocurrency by market cap rallied upward after upon breakout seven times. The average upward movement across all seven times is 872%. In contrast, the two down moves resulted in an average crash of 40%.<

Bitcoin falling 40% from here would take it back to $17,500 per coin, while a 872% move higher would take BTCUSD to over $280,000 per coin. The average of up and down moves resulted in a grand total of 669%, which would take the number one cryptocurrency to over $220,000. Considering the rule of diminishing returns, such a strong move is unlikely. However, the data speaks to the magnitude of the move that could occur, once volatility returns.

As long as #Bitcoin remains above the weekly Bollinger Band basis –– a 20-period SMA –– I am bullish

Lose the mid-BB and then I’ll talk downside pic.twitter.com/knOo0oMW5M

— Tony “The Bull” (@tonythebullBTC) July 28, 2023

Tony is the author of the CoinChartist (VIP) newsletter. Sign up for free. Follow @TonyTheBullBTC & @coinchartist_io on Twitter. Or join the TonyTradesBTC Telegram for daily market insights and technical analysis education. Please note: Content is educational and should not be considered investment advice. Featured image from iStockPhoto, Charts from TradingView.com
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Tony "The Bull" Severino
Tony "The Bull" Severino

Tony "The Bull" Severino

Tony "The Bull" Severino, CMT, is a distinguished figure in the cryptocurrency analysis sector, renowned for his in-depth technical expertise and innovative approach to market trends. As the Head of Research at NewsBTC, Tony leads a team dedicated to providing cutting-edge insights and forecasts, helping both novice and experienced traders navigate the complexities of the crypto market.
A seasoned Chartered Market Technician, Tony's prowess in identifying and capitalizing on market patterns is unmatched. His academic and professional journey in market analysis has firmly established him as a leading authority in technical trading strategies. Tony’s approach is heavily influenced by the principles of Elliott Wave Theory, a method known for its rigorous assessment of investor psychology and price movements.

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Beyond his role at NewsBTC, Tony is the visionary founder of CoinChartist.io, an educational platform aimed at demystifying the nuances of cryptocurrency trading. CoinChartist.io serves as a valuable resource for traders seeking to enhance their technical analysis skills. The platform offers a range of learning tools and resources designed to empower traders with the knowledge to make informed trading decisions.

In addition to his educational initiatives, Tony is a prolific author and a dominant voice in the crypto community. He writes the CoinChartist VIP newsletter, a weekly dispatch that has become a staple among crypto enthusiasts, revered for its insightful analysis and actionable trading advice. This newsletter has consistently ranked as a best-seller on SubStack, boasting thousands of subscribers who rely on Tony’s expertise to guide their trading strategies.

Tony is also celebrated for his literary contributions to the field. He is the author of the highest-rated Crypto Trading Journal on Amazon.com, a testament to his ability to communicate complex trading concepts in an accessible manner. This journal is widely regarded as an essential tool for traders aiming to track their progress and refine their strategies.

Before his ascent in the financial analysis world, Tony honed his skills in journalism. His background in this field has endowed him with a unique ability to present intricate market dynamics in a clear and compelling manner, making his insights highly sought after by a broad audience that ranges from casual readers to professional traders.
His professional affiliations underscore his commitment to excellence and continuous learning. As a partner of Elliott Wave International and TradingView, Tony collaborates with other leading experts to enhance his knowledge and skills. His active membership in the CMT Association further aligns him with the highest standards of industry practices and ethics.

Tony’s nickname, "The Bull," aptly reflects his aggressive and optimistic outlook on the cryptocurrency markets. His forecasts often anticipate significant upturns, earning him a reputation for bullish predictions that have frequently led to lucrative outcomes for those who follow his advice.

In summary, Tony "The Bull" Severino, CMT, is more than just a technical analyst; he is a mentor, educator, and innovator whose influence in the cryptocurrency space continues to grow. His dedication to advancing the understanding of market forces and his commitment to providing high-quality, reliable analysis make him a pivotal figure in the world of cryptocurrency trading.

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Disclaimer: The information found on NewsBTC is for educational purposes only. It does not represent the opinions of NewsBTC on whether to buy, sell or hold any investments and naturally investing carries risks. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use information provided on this website entirely at your own risk.

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Reason to trust

Strict editorial policy that focuses on accuracy, relevance, and impartiality
Created by industry experts and meticulously reviewed
The highest standards in reporting and publishing
How Our News is Made

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