Bitcoin Crash Warning: CryptoQuant CEO Sees LUNA-Like Risks Ahead

Jake Simmons

1 year ago

3 mins read

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Ethena Labs has revealed its latest strategic move: the inclusion of Bitcoin (BTC) as collateral for its synthetic dollar-pegged product, USDe. This decision, aimed at significantly scaling the product’s supply from its current $2 billion, capitalizes on the burgeoning BTC derivative markets for enhanced scalability and liquidity in delta hedging practices.

Ethena Labs’ ambitious goal is to leverage the considerable growth of BTC open interest, which has seen a substantial rise from $10 billion to $25 billion in just one year, far outpacing Ethereum’s (ETH) growth rates. Ethena’s statement highlighted the strategic benefits of integrating BTC, emphasizing the superior liquidity and duration profile of Bitcoin compared to liquid staking tokens and the potential for USDe to achieve greater scalability as a result

“With $25bn of BTC open interest readily available for Ethena to delta hedge, the capacity for USDe to scale has increased >2.5x,” the announcement noted, illustrating the robust backing that BTC provides.

Excited to announce that Ethena has onboarded BTC as a backing asset to USDe

This is a crucial unlock which will enable USDe to scale significantly from the current $2bn supply pic.twitter.com/FOZRWBrVZV

— Ethena Labs (@ethena_labs) April 4, 2024

CryptoQuant CEO Issues Bitcoin Crash Warning

This move has not been met without skepticism. Ki Young Ju, CEO of the analytics firm CryptoQuant, took to X to voice his concerns, drawing parallels to the infamous LUNA collapse and questioning the risk management strategies employed by Ethena Labs.

“This isn’t good news for Bitcoin holders—it sounds like a potential contagion risk, like LUNA. How do they maintain a delta-neutral strategy for BTC in bear markets?” Ju queried, implying that the success of such strategies is largely contingent on market conditions that favor bull runs.

He further elaborated on the complexities of shorting BTC in bear markets, suggesting that the market size for such operations could be smaller than the total value locked (TVL), potentially leading to significant market disruptions. The CryptoQuant CEO stated:

How do they maintain a delta-neutral strategy for BTC in bear markets? In bull markets, they hold spot BTC and short BTC. If there’s a method to short BTC by holding some DeFi-wrapped BTC, the market size would be smaller than its TVL. This is a CeFi stablecoin run by a hedge fund, effective only in bull markets. Correct me if I’m wrong.

Ju added that he’S concerned about a repeat of a LUNA-like doom scenario: “selling BTC to stabilize USDe’s peg if their algorithm fails during bear markets.”

Adding to the discourse, OMAKASE, a former advisor for Sushiswap, referenced historical challenges faced by delta-neutral strategies, highlighting their propensity to turn illiquid and the difficulty in unwinding such positions without causing market slippage.

“Delta neutral strategies are usually never delta neutral. Post dot-com boom in Singapore, it took years for banks to unwind delta neutral books that had suddenly turned illiquid. Size begets slippage,” OMAKASE remarked, underscoring the inherent risks of such financial maneuvers.

The industry’s reaction to Ethena Labs’ announcement has been mixed, with some lauding the potential for increased scalability and others cautioning against the risks of replicating past financial crises. A few days ago, Fantom founder Andre Cronje also questioned the stability of USDe.

Amidst these concerns, Ethena Labs stands by its decision, pointing to the advantageous market conditions and the growing BTC derivative markets as key factors supporting their strategy. “While BTC does not possess a native staking yield like staked ETH, staking yields of 3-4% are less significant in a bull market when funding rates are >30%,” the company stated, indicating a strategic optimization for the current market environment. This move, according to Ethena, is not just about scaling but also about offering a safer and more robust product to its users.

At press time, BTC traded at $67,018.

Bitcoin price — BTC price, 4-hour chart | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com

Featured image created with DALL·E, chart from TradingView.com

Jake Simmons

Jake Simmons, a dedicated crypto journalist, has been passionate about Bitcoin since 2016 when he first learned about it. Through his extensive work with NewsBTC.com and Bitcoinist.com, Jake has become a trusted voice in the crypto community, guiding newcomers and seasoned enthusiasts alike towards a deeper understanding of this dynamic field.

His mission is simple yet profound: to demystify Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies and make them accessible to everyone.
With a professional career in the Bitcoin and crypto scene that began right after graduating with a degree in Information Systems in 2017, Jake has immersed himself in the industry. Jake joined the NewsBTC Group in late 2022. His educational background provides him with the technical prowess and analytical skills necessary to dissect complex topics and present them in an understandable format. Whether you are a casual reader curious about Bitcoin or an investor seeking to navigate the latest market trends, Jake’s insights offer valuable perspectives that bridge the gap between complex technology and everyday usage.

Jake is not just a reporter on technological trends; he is a firm believer in the transformative potential of Bitcoin over traditional fiat currencies. To him, the current financial system is on the brink of chaos, propelled by unchecked government actions and flawed Keynesian economic policies. Drawing from the principles of the Austrian school of economics, Jake views Bitcoin not merely as a digital asset but as a crucial step towards rectifying a failing monetary system. His libertarian views reinforce his stance that just as the church was separated from the state, so too should money be freed from governmental control.

For Jake, Bitcoin represents more than just an investment; it's a peaceful revolution. He envisions a future where Bitcoin fosters a sustainable and responsible financial framework for generations to come. His advocacy is not about opposition but about evolution, about laying the groundwork for a system that prioritizes transparency and equity over secrecy and inequality.

As a journalist, Jake’s articles are crafted with the precision of a scholar and the passion of a true believer. He provides not only news but also thoughtful analysis that connects the dots between daily developments and larger economic theories. His work is a beacon for those lost in the technical jargon often associated with crypto discussions, illuminating the practical implications and benefits of these technologies.

In summary, Jake Simmons is not just reporting on a revolution; he wants to be part of it, fully committed to enhancing public understanding and adoption of Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies. His work is more than just a collection of articles; it’s a resource, a guide, and a companion for anyone ready to explore the potential of this digital frontier. Whether you are taking your first steps into crypto or are a veteran looking to stay on top of the latest trends, Jake’s insights provide clarity and foresight in an often unpredictable industry. Join him on this journey to reshape the world of finance, one post at a time.

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