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Breaking News: Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana Rally Towards All-Time Highs: Top Analysts Share Predictions
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Breaking News: Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana Rally Towards All-Time Highs: Top Analysts Share Predictions

Bitcoin Near Crucial Retest: Which Of These Historical Patterns Will Repeat?

Keshav Verma
Keshav Verma
1 year ago
3 mins read
Bitcoin

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On-chain data shows a Bitcoin indicator is near a crucial retest currently that may decide where the cryptocurrency will go next from here.

Which Pattern Will Bitcoin Follow Next: 2016 Or 2019?

As pointed out by an analyst in a CryptoQuant post, the BTC SOPR for short-term holders is approaching the baseline. The “Spent Output Profit Ratio” (SOPR) is an indicator that tells us whether Bitcoin investors are selling/moving their coins at a profit or at a loss right now.

When the value of this metric is greater than 1, it means that the average holder in the market is realizing some amount of profit with their selling currently. On the other hand, values below this threshold suggest loss taking is the dominant force in the market at the moment.

Naturally, the SOPR being exactly equal to the 1 baseline implies the total amount of profits being realized are exactly canceling out the amount of losses as the market as a whole is neutral.

This SOPR is for the entire Bitcoin market, but in the context of the current discussion, the relevant version of the metric is the one for just a single segment of the market: the “short-term holders” (STHs).

The STH group includes all the investors who purchased their coins less than 155 days ago. This cohort generally includes the weak hands of the market, who may easily react to fluctuations in the market.

Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the 90-day and 365-day moving averages (MAs) of the Bitcoin STH SOPR over the last few years:

Bitcoin STH SOPR

Looks like both the metrics have been above the baseline in recent days: Source: CryptoQuant

As displayed in the above graph, the 90-day MA of the Bitcoin STH SOPR (colored in yellow) broke out above the 1 baseline back when this rally first started around the beginning of the year.

This breakout suggested a shift towards profit selling for these investors, something that has historically been observed in all previous major rallies in the cryptocurrency.

With the latest leg in the Bitcoin rally above the $30,000 mark, the 365-day MA of the indicator (highlighted in blue) has also managed to climb up above this mark.

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While this has been happening, though, the 90-day MA has actually been heading down and is now about to cross below the 365-day MA as it approaches the 1 baseline.

In the chart, the quant has marked the two previous instances where a trend similar to this had formed for the asset. It looks like back in 2016 when the 90-day MA had retested the 1 mark after a similar structure had taken shape, the metric had found support at the break-even mark. This rebound kept Bitcoin going and the coin eventually built up into a bull market.

In 2019, though, the retest of the 90-day MA STH SOPR failed and a bearish trend once again took over the coin. It wouldn’t be until 160 days later that bullish sentiment returned and the rally happened.

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Bitcoin Has Broken This Open Interest Pattern, Quant Explains

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As the current Bitcoin market looks to be in a similar spot as these two historical occurrences, it’s possible that it may follow the lead of one of these. It now remains to be seen, as to which of these patterns the asset might exhibit this time.

BTC Price

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $30,300, down 1% in the last week.

Bitcoin Price Chart

BTC has surged during the past day | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView
Featured image from Kanchanara on Unsplash.com, charts from TradingView.com, CryptoQuant.com
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Keshav Verma
Keshav Verma

Keshav Verma

Keshav is currently a senior writer at NewsBTC and has been attached to the website since June 14, 2021.

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Keshav has been writing for many years, first as a hobbyist and later as a freelancer. He has experience working in a variety of niches, even fiction at one point, but the cryptocurrency industry has been the longest he has been attached to.

In terms of official educational qualifications, Keshav holds a bachelor’s degree in Physics from one of the premier institutes of India, the University of Delhi (DU). He started the degree with an aim of eventually making a career in Physics, but the onset of COVID led to a shift in plans. The virus meant that the college classes had to be delivered in the online-mode and with it came free time for him to explore other passions.

Initially only seeking to make some beer money, Keshav unexpectedly landed clients offering real projects, after which there was no looking back. Writing was something he had always enjoyed and to be able to do it for a living was like a dream come true.

Keshav completed his Physics degree in 2022 and has been focusing on his writing career since, but that doesn’t mean his passion for Physics has ended. He eventually plans to re-enter university to obtain a masters degree in the same field, but perhaps only to satiate his own interest rather than for using it as a means to find employment..

Keshav has found blockchain and its concepts fascinating ever since he started going down the rabbit-hole back in 2020. On-chain analysis in particular has been something he likes to research more about, which is why his NewsBTC pieces tend to involve it in some form.

Being of the science background, Keshav likes if concepts are clear and consistent, so he generally explains the indicators he talks about in a bit of detail so that the readers can perhaps come out having understood and learnt something new.

As for hobbies, Keshav is super into football, anime, and videogames. He enjoys football not only as a watcher, but also as a player. For games, Keshav generally tends towards enjoying singleplayer adventures, with EA FC (formerly FIFA) being the only online game he is active in. Though, perhaps due to being ultra-focused on the game, he is today a semi-pro on the EA FC scene, regularly participating in tournaments and sometimes even taking back prize money.

Because of his enthusiasm for anime and games, he also self-learned Japanese along the way to consume some of the untranslated gems out there. The skill didn’t merely remain as just a hobby, either, as he put it to productive use during his exploration for small-time gigs at the start of COVID, fulfilling a couple of Japanese-to-English translation jobs.

Keshav is also big into fitness, with agility and acceleration-related workouts making a big part of his program due to the relevance they have in football. On top of that, he also has a more traditional strength based program for the gym, which he does to maintain an overall fitness level of his body.

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Disclaimer: The information found on NewsBTC is for educational purposes only. It does not represent the opinions of NewsBTC on whether to buy, sell or hold any investments and naturally investing carries risks. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use information provided on this website entirely at your own risk.

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Reason to trust

Strict editorial policy that focuses on accuracy, relevance, and impartiality
Created by industry experts and meticulously reviewed
The highest standards in reporting and publishing
How Our News is Made

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Ad discliamer

Morbi pretium leo et nisl aliquam mollis. Quisque arcu lorem, ultricies quis pellentesque nec, ullamcorper eu odio.

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