Bitcoin ETF Market Flashes Warning: IBIT Outflows Paired With Drop In Tron USDT Transfers

Ash Tiwari

Last Updated: August 4, 2025 9:00 pm

3 mins read

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Bitcoin (BTC) is down 3.6% over the past week, falling from around $119,800 to the $114,500 range at the time of writing. This weakening price action is also reflected in spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), most notably in BlackRock’s IBIT Bitcoin ETF, which saw over $2.6 billion in outflows on August 1.

IBIT Bitcoin ETF Sees Massive Outflows

According to a recent CryptoQuant Quicktake by contributor Amr Taha, BlackRock’s IBIT ETF recorded more than $2.6 billion in outflows on August 1 – the highest figure in the past two months across all listed Bitcoin ETFs.

Taha highlighted that the sharp reversal in institutional demand for Bitcoin ETFs comes after several weeks of positive inflows, and indicates a growing sense of caution among ETF investors. Data from SoSoValue confirms the trend.

For the week ending August 1, US-based spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a net outflow of $643 million. This marked the end of a seven-week streak of positive inflows, which had totaled more than $10 billion.

Another important point is that the $2.6 billion outflow from BlackRock’s IBIT ETF was not mirrored by other ETFs. Analyst Taha also identified a correlation between IBIT outflows and Binance-origin USDT transfers on the Tron network.

In his analysis, the CryptoQuant contributor noted that alongside the IBIT outflows, USDT transfers on Tron from Binance fell from approximately $2 billion to $1.3 billion – a sharp 35% decline. Taha added:

The timing strongly suggests a link between the ETF-driven selling pressure and the accelerated pace of stablecoin withdrawal via Tron, a blockchain renowned for fast and cost-efficient transactions.

Tron network’s low fees and speed make it a preferred blockchain for both retail and institutional stablecoin transfers. Therefore, a drop in USDT transfers from Binance – occurring in tandem with IBIT outflows – suggests that institutional interest in BTC may be temporarily cooling off.

Recent on-chain data shows Binance continues to lead other exchanges such as OKX, HTX, and KuCoin in terms of Tron-based USDT transfers. As a result, Binance volume trends often serve as a reliable indicator of investor sentiment shifts.

Fresh Data Presents Mixed Forecasts

Beyond weakening ETF demand, new exchange data signals potential headwinds for Bitcoin in the near term. For example, Binance’s net taker volume dropped to -$160 million last week, indicating increased sell-side activity.

From a technical standpoint, things appear less than optimistic. Crypto analyst Josh Olszewicz recently predicted that BTC could remain range-bound until October 2025.

Still, not all signs are bearish. A recent report from CoinShares estimates that Bitcoin could rise to $189,000 if it captures just 2% of global M2 money supply or 5% of gold’s market cap. At press time, BTC trades at $114,494, up 0.3% in the past 24 hours.

Featured image from Unsplash, charts from CryptoQuant and TradingView.com

Ash Tiwari

Ash is a dedicated crypto researcher and blockchain enthusiast with a passion for diving deep into the evolving world of decentralized technologies. With a background in writing and a natural curiosity for how digital assets are shaping the future, he has immersed himself in various sectors of the cryptocurrency space, including decentralized finance (DeFi), NFTs, and liquidity mining. His journey into crypto started with a desire to fully understand the technology behind it, leading him to explore and engage with these systems firsthand.

Ash’s approach to DeFi goes beyond surface-level research as he actively participates in decentralized protocols, testing their functionality to gain a deeper understanding of how they operate. From experimenting with staking mechanisms to exploring liquidity mining strategies, he is hands-on in his exploration, which allows him to provide practical, real-world insights that go far beyond theoretical knowledge. This immersive experience has helped him develop a comprehensive grasp of smart contracts, token governance, and the broader implications of decentralized platforms on the future of finance.

In the NFT space, Ash’s interest is driven by the technology’s potential to reshape ownership and creativity in the digital age. He has explored various NFT projects, gaining insights into how these digital assets function within different ecosystems. His focus is on understanding the evolving relationship between creators and communities, as well as the innovative uses of blockchain technology to establish authenticity and provenance in the digital world. Ash’s research in this area often touches on the intersection of culture, technology, and community-driven projects.

A key area of his expertise lies in liquidity mining, where he has engaged with various decentralized platforms to understand how liquidity provision contributes to the functionality and security of DeFi ecosystems. Ash’s hands-on involvement has allowed him to analyze the risks, rewards, and broader implications of liquidity pools, giving him a well-rounded perspective on this integral part of DeFi. His understanding of risk management and protocol design allows him to provide insights into how these systems can be navigated effectively, with an emphasis on both opportunity and caution.

When it comes to communicating these complex topics, Ash’s writing is grounded in clarity and depth. He excels at breaking down intricate blockchain concepts into easily digestible information for a wide audience. Whether explaining the workings of decentralized exchanges or outlining the future potential of blockchain technology, Ash ensures that his content is accessible to both those new to the space and experienced participants looking for deeper insights.

Beyond DeFi and NFTs, Ash explores a wide array of emerging blockchain applications. His research spans areas like cross-chain technologies, decentralized governance, and blockchain’s potential to integrate with traditional finance. He is continuously learning and adapting to the latest developments, ensuring that his insights are both timely and relevant. His interest extends to how these technologies are creating new possibilities for decentralization, transparency, and trust in a variety of industries.

Ash’s commitment to engaging with the crypto space firsthand gives him a unique perspective that goes beyond what can be learned from research alone. His practical involvement allows him to stay ahead of the curve, offering readers and enthusiasts a clear and comprehensive understanding of the rapidly evolving world of blockchain. Whether delving into the technical mechanics of DeFi or exploring the cultural impact of NFTs, Ash’s approach is always rooted in curiosity, research, and a desire to make this technology accessible to all.

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