Bitcoin MVRV At Critical Support Line, Will Retest Be Successful?

Keshav Verma

1 year ago

3 mins read

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On-chain data shows the Bitcoin Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio is nearing a retest that could be crucial for the asset.

Bitcoin MVRV Ratio Is Nearing In On The 1.2 Level

As an analyst in a CryptoQuant Quicktake post explained, the 1.2 level of the MVRV ratio has historically been a support line for the cryptocurrency. The “MVRV ratio” is an indicator that measures the ratio between the Bitcoin market cap and the realized cap.

The “realized cap” here refers to a capitalization model for BTC that assumes the real value of each coin in circulation isn’t the current spot price but rather the price at which the coin was last bought/transacted on the blockchain.

As the realized cap considers the cost basis or acquisition price of each investor in the market, the model essentially represents the total capital that the holders have put into the asset.

Thus, comparing the market cap against the realized cap in the MVRV ratio can provide hints about whether the investors are holding more or less value than they put in.

When the ratio’s value is greater than 1, it means that the market as a whole is sitting on some profits right now. Generally, the higher the MVRV goes above this mark, the more probable corrections become for the asset as investors look to harvest their gains.

On the contrary, the indicator below this mark can signal that BTC may be underpriced right now, as the average holder in the sector carries coins at a loss.

Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the Bitcoin MVRV ratio over the last few years:

The value of the metric seems to have been going down in recent days | Source: CryptoQuant

As is visible in the above graph, the Bitcoin MVRV ratio has been above the 1 mark during the past few months. The metric broke above this line in January when the rally started. Besides a retest in March, the indicator has remained above this level since then, implying that the holders have enjoyed profits.

The 1 level has been important historically for the asset. Still, the quant notes that another value is notable: 1.2. This line has supported the asset a few times in the past, as the analyst has highlighted in the chart (the yellow boxes).

Most recently, Bitcoin found support at this level in June, where the cryptocurrency could propel itself back up with a sharp rally. The metric is heading down and again approaching a retest of this line, as its current value is 1.27.

Naturally, a successful retest could be positive news for Bitcoin, but a failure might lead to an extended drawdown for the asset’s price.

BTC Price

As the chart below shows, Bitcoin has continued to consolidate recently, with the asset’s price still trading around the $25,700 level.

BTC is still displaying stagnant price action | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView

Featured image from Kanchanara on Unsplash.com, charts from TradingView.com, CryptoQuant.com

Keshav Verma

Keshav is currently a senior writer at NewsBTC and has been attached to the website since June 14, 2021.

Keshav has been writing for many years, first as a hobbyist and later as a freelancer. He has experience working in a variety of niches, even fiction at one point, but the cryptocurrency industry has been the longest he has been attached to.

In terms of official educational qualifications, Keshav holds a bachelor’s degree in Physics from one of the premier institutes of India, the University of Delhi (DU). He started the degree with an aim of eventually making a career in Physics, but the onset of COVID led to a shift in plans. The virus meant that the college classes had to be delivered in the online-mode and with it came free time for him to explore other passions.

Initially only seeking to make some beer money, Keshav unexpectedly landed clients offering real projects, after which there was no looking back. Writing was something he had always enjoyed and to be able to do it for a living was like a dream come true.

Keshav completed his Physics degree in 2022 and has been focusing on his writing career since, but that doesn’t mean his passion for Physics has ended. He eventually plans to re-enter university to obtain a masters degree in the same field, but perhaps only to satiate his own interest rather than for using it as a means to find employment..

Keshav has found blockchain and its concepts fascinating ever since he started going down the rabbit-hole back in 2020. On-chain analysis in particular has been something he likes to research more about, which is why his NewsBTC pieces tend to involve it in some form.

Being of the science background, Keshav likes if concepts are clear and consistent, so he generally explains the indicators he talks about in a bit of detail so that the readers can perhaps come out having understood and learnt something new.

As for hobbies, Keshav is super into football, anime, and videogames. He enjoys football not only as a watcher, but also as a player. For games, Keshav generally tends towards enjoying singleplayer adventures, with EA FC (formerly FIFA) being the only online game he is active in. Though, perhaps due to being ultra-focused on the game, he is today a semi-pro on the EA FC scene, regularly participating in tournaments and sometimes even taking back prize money.

Because of his enthusiasm for anime and games, he also self-learned Japanese along the way to consume some of the untranslated gems out there. The skill didn’t merely remain as just a hobby, either, as he put it to productive use during his exploration for small-time gigs at the start of COVID, fulfilling a couple of Japanese-to-English translation jobs.

Keshav is also big into fitness, with agility and acceleration-related workouts making a big part of his program due to the relevance they have in football. On top of that, he also has a more traditional strength based program for the gym, which he does to maintain an overall fitness level of his body.

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