Bitcoin Poised To Explode Above $50K?, Why Fundamentals Shout More Profits

Reynaldo Marquez

3 years ago

2 mins read

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Bitcoin has climbed up from every major resistance level in the past month. At the time of writing, BTC trades at $48,412 with a 3.8% profit.

After weeks in the green, the general sentiment in the crypto market has flipped decisively bullish as sellers seem exhausted and unable to continue their assault.

Director of Global Macroeconomics for investment firm Fidelity Jurrier Timmer believes Bitcoin could retake previous highs and go back to price discovery. In a thread published via Twitter, Timmer compared BTC’s price at different historical moments.

As seen below, Bitcoin’s current price action is “similar” to the distribution phase experience during February and April. At that moment, BTC’s price seemed stuck but finally moved to the upside. Timmer said:

With the latest rally, bitcoin’s market cap is closing in on the old highs. If we add in the rest of the crypto space, we have reclaimed a market cap of $2 trillion. This is no longer a sideshow, folks.

Many experts believe the macro-economic environment has favored Bitcoin, gold, and risk assets capable of generating yield for investors. In that sense, Timmer compared BTC’s performance with gold in 1970.

As seen below, the cryptocurrency and the precious metal behaved similarly. Although the expert clarified that this prediction is “highly subjective”, it could be an indication of future appreciation as BTC takes over gold’s market share. Timmer added:

In fact, bitcoin’s fundamentals (its network) are steadily improving. At the peak, there were 34.3 million addresses (with at least $1). That number fell to 31.8 million at the low and has now climbed back up to 33.5 million

Bitcoin Fundamentals Strengthen, On Route To $100K?

Timmer introduced a demand model, based on an S-Curve pattern, used to determine a technology’s adoption level, and a supply model, similar to Plan B’s Stock-to-Flow.

During the third market capitulation event in mid-July, this model intersected and created a “good base from which to consolidate”. The next these models will intersect, Bitcoin will stand at around $100,000, as the chart shows.

Bitcoin’s hash rate is climbing back from the abyss (following the mining ban in China), although it remains well below the peak. Higher prices will likely fix that as mining follows demand.

Another bullish point for BTC’s price in the long term, the expert argued, is the miner’s migration from China. The main driver of recent selling pressure, this event has made the cryptocurrency’s energy consumption much cleaner and could incentive new inventors to jump into the crypto market.

The capitulation events that pushed Bitcoin from an all-time high at $64,000, to its yearly lows at around $29,000, will have positive implications. The expert claimed that short-term investors have lost market share to long-term investors or hodlers.

The latter constituted around 12% of the market, data provided by Timmer claims. The expert said:

I’m impressed how resilient bitcoin and the crypto space in general have been during this 55% correction. The speculators (tourists) got crushed as they usually do during drawdowns, and now make up only 17% of the market. That level is consistent with past bottoms.

Reynaldo Marquez

A literature major, Reynaldo Márquez has been deeply immersed in the crypto industry since 2017. His journey began with translating articles for various crypto news outlets, a role he took on with zeal. In 2018, amidst a challenging market, he embraced his first writing assignment, demonstrating his unwavering commitment to the nascent industry and the promise of change it bears for many people worldwide.
In March 2021, he joined the prestigious crypto news outlet NewsBTC and Bitcoinist, where he not only reported on the latest crypto news but also had the privilege of interviewing some of the industry's most influential figures. A year later, his dedication and hard work were recognized, and he was promoted to Managing Editor, a position he currently holds with pride.
He believes in honesty, good communication, hard work, and the power of cryptocurrency and its potential to transform people's lives, especially those alienated by the legacy financial system. Born in 1992 in Venezuela, Reynaldo is familiar with how governments and central banks can negatively affect people, their everyday lives, and their futures by creating inflation and erasing their hopes for a better future. Thus, like many Venezuelans, he embraced this new technology to help him and his family navigate difficult times.
In another life, Reynaldo would have pursued a career as an investigator, most likely tracking down the origins of the Cyberpunk movement with the publication of William Gibson’s ‘Neuromancer.’ The intersection between fiction and reality, with the materialization of Bitcoin in 2009, would have allowed him to dive deep into the crypto sphere as something more than a financial phenomenon but also a cultural shift in society that was brewing since the XX century, and maybe even sooner, in the XIX century with the publication of Henry David Thoreau’s ‘Civil Disobedience.’
But that’s for another life. In this one, Reynaldo has been trading to improve his trading skills. Since 2023, he has been trying to learn Python to create successful strategies and find ways to execute them. It is a difficult task, which continues to keep him busy today and will most likely continue to keep him busy in the near and long term.
In his free time, he enjoys lifting heavy objects, reading, watching movies, and listening to his favorite music. Some of his favorite authors are Walt Whitman, William Faulkner, Allen Ginsberg, James Baldwin, Raymond Carver, Ray Bradbury, George Orwell, Mario Vargas Llosa, Reinaldo Arenas, Rafael Cadenas, and many others. Lately, he has been primarily interested in reading about dystopic societies, a topic that deeply resonates with the crypto industry.
Since 2023, he has lived in Spain with his wife. He loves the weather, the food, and the people and their culture. They both expect to travel much more within the country they now call home and beyond its border. He hopes to retire with his wife, maybe in a quiet place near a beach, but most likely in a city close to a library and a university with his kids and, hopefully, grandkids.

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