Bitcoin Pre-Halving Dip Expected: Will BTC Rally Before US Fed Decision?

Dalmas Ngetich

1 year ago

2 mins read

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Bitcoin remains under pressure when writing and is within a bearish formation following sharp losses on March 19. While prices tank, one analyst on X thinks this retracement aligns with historical performance, especially as the network prepares to slash miner rewards in April 2024.

Bitcoin Retracement Similar To Pre-Halving Cool-Off Of 2020

Based on the analyst’s assessment, BTC is currently down roughly 18% from its recent swing high. This retracement is at the same level as the ballpark 19% decline observed before the previous halving event in 2020.

Bitcoin pre-halving rally | Source: analyst on X

It’s worth noting that Bitcoin has historically corrected lower after posting fresh highs before halving. Afterward, the coin rallies to fresh all-time highs following halving, driven by a decrease in supply. In this cycle, BTC soared to a new all-time high of $73,800 in the first two weeks of March before cooling off to spot rate, a deviation from the usual trend.

As the Bitcoin network gears up for the halving event in mid-April 2024, it’s crucial to note the potential market implications. Some market observers speculate that the current drop could offer entries for investors looking to accumulate at a lower price in anticipation of future price gains.

From the Bitcoin candlestick arrangement in the daily chart, the least resistance path appears southwards. Specifically, following the dip on March 19, the coin remains in a bearish breakout pattern, finding strong rejections from the middle Bollinger Band (BB) or the 20-day moving average. The BB is a technical indicator for gauging volatility.

Bitcoin price trending downward on the daily chart | Source: BTCUSDT on Binance, TradingView

Will The Federal Reserve Revive BTC Demand?

Currently, Bitcoin is steady. Even so, only time will tell whether prices will recover, breaking above the $70,000 level in the days leading up to the halving event in less than a month. Further losses from spot rates mean the dip before halving and after the pre-halving rally was much sharper than in 2020.

As history clearly shows, halving is an important event in Bitcoin. It has repeatedly proven to be a major price catalyst for Bitcoin, as seen in the last bull cycle when prices rose to roughly $70,000.

Accordingly, the coming days will shape how Bitcoin prices evolve in the medium to long term. One key driver of crypto and BTC valuation will be fundamental events, especially pronouncements from the United States Federal Reserve (Fed). The central bank will relay its decision on interest rates on March 20. Earlier in 2022, when interest rates were hiked, prices tanked.

Feature image from DALLE, chart from TradingView

Dalmas Ngetich

Dalmas, a seasoned crypto reporter, brings a unique perspective to the industry. His specialization in NFTs, blockchain, DeFi, and blockchain news for NewsBTC, combined with a background in mechanical engineering and over a decade of experience in journalism, has allowed him to craft over 10,000 news and feature articles over the past eight years. His diverse range of topics, including technology, Forex, and finance, reflects his comprehensive understanding of the crypto landscape.

His technical expertise and analytical skills have been recognized and featured by leading news outlets such as Investing.com, CoinTelegraph, Entrepreneur, Forbes, and other authority sites. Notably, he broke key news, including the Ripple and MoneyGram partnership, cementing his position as a thought leader in crypto.
The news exploded. Over 100,000 people devoured this meticulously crafted report, from seasoned investors to curious newcomers. His analysis wasn't just dry facts and figures; it crackled with insight, dissecting the implications of the partnership and its potential impact on the future of finance.

His deep understanding of the financial markets, technological advancements, and blockchain developments has made him a respected voice in the industry.

Dalmas is also the founder of BTC-Pulse, a crypto news site, further demonstrating his commitment to the field. He firmly believes that DeFi and NFTs are here to stay and will continue to drive financial inclusion.

Coming from Nairobi, Kenya, it is easy to see the source of his inspiration: Across Africa, millions lack access to traditional banks. Remote villages, limited documentation, and high minimum balances create insurmountable barriers.

DeFi, not just Maker or Aave, for example, but think of Bitcoin and USDT, cuts out the middleman. Forget banks with their limitations.
Even so, DeFi isn't a magic solution. The continent still struggles with reliable internet access, and educational campaigns highlighting the benefits of this wonderful solution are insufficient. Moreover, even for those interested, understanding DeFi can look like learning a new language.

Dalmas is here to help make the tech easy to understand and digestible, even for beginners.
The story of DeFi in Africa is still being written. Challenges abound, but the promise of a more inclusive financial future is a powerful motivator. With innovation and collaboration, Dalmas firmly believes that DeFi could become the key to unlocking Africa's full economic potential.
This possibility and its immense value motivate Dalmas to continue breaking key DeFi innovations and more across the globe. His engineering background further enhances his ability to deliver well-thought-out pieces that blend technical insight with clear, impactful reporting.

Beyond his professional achievements, Dalmas is deeply passionate about technology and politics. Policies drive adoption, and being at the forefront and keeping up with how they evolve is crucial for the sphere to mature.

When Dalmas is not closely monitoring the latest crypto events, he can be found in nature, exploring the picturesque countryside, and traveling with his family and friends. His love for adventure and discovery perfectly complements his investigative and reporting skills.
You can connect with Dalmas on X: @Dalmas_Ngetich, or contact him on Telegram @Dalmas_Ngetich.

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