Cryptocurrency price predictions have become as plentiful as trees in a forest, but many never come to fruition. Nonetheless, with the crypto market’s move lower, some have begun to believe that Arthur Hayes’ $5k prediction could be in store for Bitcoin.
From $5k To $50k — Arthur Hayes’ Extreme Bitcoin Prediction
Arthur Hayes, the CEO of BitMEX and a passionate cryptocurrency proponent, has not been one to back down from a tough question. When queried about his prediction for the price of Bitcoin come the end of 2018, Hayes stated, albeit somewhat jokingly, that Bitcoin will reach $50,000. As reported by NewsBTC, he doubled down on this sentiment in late June, drawing attention to the potential for a positive regulatory decision that could bring the price of the foremost digital asset past $50,000. Hayes stated:
“Absolutely [I stand by $50,000 prediction by 2018]. I think something [bitcoin] that goes up to $20,000 in one year can have a correction down to $6,000. I think we can find a bottom in the $3,000 to $5,000 range, but we are one positive regulatory decision away, maybe an ETF approved by the SEC, to climbing through $20,000 and even to $50,000 by the end of 2018.”
As per a tweet from Frank Chaparro, a fintech-focused Business Insider reporter, Arthur Hayes’ prediction could still be in store for the cryptocurrency market.
BitMEX head Arthur Hayes predicted #bitcoin would retest 5k before hitting $50,000 by year end https://t.co/gjXTc0uQjf
— Frank Chaparro (@fintechfrank) August 14, 2018
As Bitcoin neared $8,000 in late July, Hayes made an appearance on CNBC to triple down on his ambitious prediction, this time drawing attention to the fact that if Bitcoin falls and holds $5,000, that the $50,000 rally could be possible. He later added that he expects for Q3 and Q4 to be “when the party is going to start again,” as summer months are when cryptocurrency traders “take a little bit of chill time.”
Could His Prediction Come To Fruition?
Following the SEC’s delay verdict for the VanECK and SolidX Bitcoin ETF, the market began to tumble, falling from a monthly high at $8,500 to today’s low at $6,000. While Hayes has yet to bring up his prediction once again, some investors have become increasingly aware that the first part of his prediction could come to pass as Bitcoin nears $5,000. First, Bitcoin will need to test the $5,800 level, which has become an essential line of support in previous downtrends.
However, if Bitcoin drops below $5,800, some users fear that this will be the point of no return, with some calling a move under this level “game over” for this early-stage asset class. Jeff DeGraaf, a technical analyst at Renaissance Macro Research, recently revealed that Bitcoin could be “permanently impaired” or put into a “game over” phase if it moves under $5,800.
So for Hayes’ prediction to be successful, the market will have to go against all the odds to fall under $5,800, to only surpass this level only weeks, if not days later.
Additionally, even if Bitcoin was to pull off this feat, many fear that there is a limited upside. In Hayes’ second mention of $50,000, the CEO pointed out that the catalyst for such a move would be a positive regulatory decision. But now that the positive regulatory environment around this space has deflated, some fear that the market’s luck has run out, or at least for 2018 anyway.
It remains to be seen whether the predictions of yesteryear will come to pass, but many are hoping for the best, finding smidges of solace in a bear market.
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