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The bitcoin market is calm even though it awaits the launch of a very bullish product: a set of physically-delivered futures.
Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), the world’s second-largest exchange by market cap, is going to offer trading of two Bitcoin Futures Contracts, one daily and other monthly, from September 23. The contracts, backed by Atlanta-based digital asset firm Bakkt, have received approval from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). Meanwhile, Bakkt also has gained custodianship rights to customers’ bitcoin following permission from the New York Department of Financial Services (NYDFS).
The event bids to promote bitcoin trading among institutional investors, a class of monies that till now maintains a safe distance from cryptocurrencies because of their unregulated nature. Speculators see the launch of Bakkt futures as a means to attract substantial capital inflows from Wall Street, which would send the bitcoin prices higher.
Bitcoin Investors Feeling Cold-feet
But as the date of the Bakkt launch is nearing, the same speculators are feeling cold-feet. Bitcoin’s volatility has hit its 4-month low going down, as reported by Forbes here, indicating that traders are looking at each other while wondering who among them would make the first move. The uncertainty has resulted in choppy price action – a bias conflict – that gives no hint about the bitcoin’s next trend.
As of this time of writing, bitcoin is trading between a strict range defined by $9,700 and $10,050, still down by at least 8 percent from its weekly top.
According to the famous market theorist PlanB, Bakkt’s launch is not necessarily a bullish event, but it promises the crypto to discover its real market value.
“ICE is offering physically-settled Bitcoin futures through its Bakkt unit. It will act as an exchange, clearinghouse, and settlement authority. ICE BTC futures will create price discovery apart from any cash market influence.”
Yes, esp. because not dependent on spot market rates of exchanges for settlement. CME is cash settled, therefor dependent on (an average of) exchange rates, thus sensitive to manipulation & fraud. Institutions don't like that. ICE/Bakkt has it's own price based on real #bitcoin.
— PlanB (@100trillionUSD) September 11, 2019
Chicken Run
Meanwhile, many analysts have already started weighing-in the possibility of a bitcoin price crash. Their technical indicators measure see the cryptocurrency below the $9,000 level, unfazed by Bakkt or any other active market fundamental. Theories such as these are fueling the bias-conflict further as traders continue to wait for a bullish hero to enter a large buying order – or a bearish villain to do the opposite and crash bitcoin.
$BTC – daily candle closed with a strong rejection of intraday highs…Middle BB held support when tested…FIB retrace currently at 38.2% #bitcoin pic.twitter.com/6Bi4DNw76d
— BIG Chonis (@BigChonis) September 7, 2019
“Some long/mid-term longs may be concerned about prices crashing,” reasons Alex Krüger, a balanced crypto analyst. “I can’t tell anyone what to do. Can say being concerned is a great way to make a mistake, as it often leads to an emotional exit if the price moves against. Need to have a plan. Reducing size helps in sticking to the plan.”
