• Advertise
  • Submit a Press Release
NewsBTC
Bitcoin & cryptocurrency news today, price & technical analysis
Price & Market
Cap Data from
Nomics Logo
  • News
    • Bitcoin
    • Ethereum
    • Ripple
    • Cardano
    • Tezos
    • EOS
    • Chainlink
    • Sponsored
    • Press Releases
  • Analysis
    • Bitcoin (BTC)
    • Ethereum (ETH)
    • Cardano (ADA)
    • Chainlink (LINK)
    • Litecoin (LTC)
    • Tezos (XTZ)
    • Zcash (ZEC)
    • EOS
    • YearnFinance (YFI)
  • Education
    • Accepting Bitcoin payments
    • Using Bitcoin
    • What is Bitcoin Mining
    • How to Trade Bitcoin
    • How to Buy Bitcoin
    • Digital Currency Exchange
    • Proof of Existence
    • Is Bitcoin legal?
    • Bitcoin Books
  • Trading Course
  • Directory
    • Crypto Businesses
    • Bitcoin Brokers
    • Casinos
    • Sportsbooks
  • TradeeToro
  • Gamble +Try
No Result
View All Result
  • News
    • Bitcoin
    • Ethereum
    • Ripple
    • Cardano
    • Tezos
    • EOS
    • Chainlink
    • Sponsored
    • Press Releases
  • Analysis
    • Bitcoin (BTC)
    • Ethereum (ETH)
    • Cardano (ADA)
    • Chainlink (LINK)
    • Litecoin (LTC)
    • Tezos (XTZ)
    • Zcash (ZEC)
    • EOS
    • YearnFinance (YFI)
  • Education
    • Accepting Bitcoin payments
    • Using Bitcoin
    • What is Bitcoin Mining
    • How to Trade Bitcoin
    • How to Buy Bitcoin
    • Digital Currency Exchange
    • Proof of Existence
    • Is Bitcoin legal?
    • Bitcoin Books
  • Trading Course
  • Directory
    • Crypto Businesses
    • Bitcoin Brokers
    • Casinos
    • Sportsbooks
  • TradeeToro
  • Gamble +Try
No Result
View All Result
NewsBTC
No Result
View All Result
Price & Market
Cap Data from
Nomics Logo
Home Cryptocurrency news Bitcoin

Bitcoin Actually Declines Off of Political Uncertainty, Bombshell Study Finds

Yashu Gola by Yashu Gola
1 year ago
in Bitcoin
Reading Time: 2min read
investors looking for safe haven bitcoin

Bitcoin Actually Declines Off of Political Uncertainty, Bombshell Study Finds

Advertisement

It might not be a good idea to purchase bitcoin as an insurance asset against this year’s nailbiting US presidential election.

That is according to a new study that doubts bitcoin’s credential as a safe-haven asset against a mounting political uncertainty. Author Tobias Burggraf, a research assistant at WHU Otto Beisheim School of Management, found that the cryptocurrency’s price goes down whenever governmental risks are high.

The report used two class of variables: One that concerned returns of bitcoin over a specific period of time, and the other that measured global political uncertainty (GPU) based on binaries 0 and 1. ‘One’ indicated high uncertainty when they fall within a period of six, three, or one month prior to a federal election. ‘Zero,’ on the other hand, showed low risks.

5 BTC + 300 Free Spins for new players & 15 BTC + 35.000 Free Spins every month, only at mBitcasino. Play Now!

“The correlation between Bitcoin and political uncertainty is negative for all three variables GPU6M, GPU3M, and GPU1M (−0.220, −0.276, and −0.152, respectively), which gives us a first indication of the directional relationship. When political uncertainty goes up, Bitcoin’s return goes down,” – wrote Mr. Burggraf.

Anomalies

Data that served as the basis to understand bitcoin’s return and GPU came from CoinMarketCap.com and the US Federal Election Commission, respectively.

However, the study focused on prices and election data recorded between April 28, 2013, and October 31, 2019. Up until 2018, bitcoin’s volatility was much higher and was subject to a higher degree of price manipulation. It was only after April 2019 that the cryptocurrency started responding actively to global events (the US-China trade war is a prime example).

While Mr. Burggraf’s quantile regression didn’t agree with bitcoin’s status as a safe-haven asset, a separate Bloomberg study in August 2019 said otherwise. The global financial news provider found that the cryptocurrency’s correlation with Gold, a traditional hedging asset, reached its highest between April 2019 and July 2019.

Bitcoin’s Latest Safe-Haven Act

The correlation efficiency between gold and bitcoin touched its four-year high in January 2020. Both climbed almost in tandem after a US-sponsored airstrike killed a top Iranian military commander and led the Middle East on the brink of a serious geopolitical conflict.

Prominent market analyst Alex Kruger spotted the growing proximity between the two assets. He saw it as a sign of bitcoin becoming a more macro asset. Excerpts:

“Bitcoin is in the process of becoming a macro asset as the market matures. In the meantime bitcoin is also a hedge against the TAIL-RISK of fiat systems collapsing, i.e. a put option on central banks without expiry.”

13/ This is how bitcoin traded the Iran events. Notice the lag. Lag = Opportunity ? pic.twitter.com/bSK7DxlhRz

— Alex Krüger (@krugermacro) January 28, 2020

Mr. Burggrat, though, asserted that historical data did not favor bitcoin as a safety guard against market downturns caused by geopolitical mess-ups. He wrote:

“Investors are advised to look for alternatives investments when it comes to hedging against market downturns induced by political risk.”

Tags: bitcoincryptocurrency
TweetShare
Nexo Logo
BitStarz Player Lands $2,459,124 Record Win! Could you be next big winner? Win up to $1,000,000 in One Spin at CryptoSlots
Yashu Gola

Yashu Gola

Yashu Gola is a Mumbai-based finance journalist. He is profoundly active in the bitcoin space since 2014 – and has contributed to several cryptocurrency media outlets, including NewsBTC, FxDailyReport, Bitcoinist, and CCN. Academically, Yashu holds a bachelor's in information technology, with majors in data structures and C++ programming language. He has also won the 'Atulya Award' for his efforts towards raising $100,000 for an India-based farming project.

Related Posts

Bitcoin Analyst Explains Why Traders Should Buy Altcoins All March

Bitcoin Analyst Explains Why Traders Should Buy Altcoins All March

2 days ago
Bitcoin Exchange Suffers Massive Outflow as BTC/USD Drops

Bitcoin Exchange Suffers Massive Outflow as BTC/USD Drops

2 days ago
Bitcoin Exchange Coinbase to Go Public; What Does It Mean for BTC/USD?

Bitcoin Exchange Coinbase to Go Public; What Does It Mean for BTC/USD?

3 days ago
Bitcoin Sell-Off Resumes Ahead of Key Economic Data; What to Expect?

Bitcoin Sell-Off Resumes Ahead of Key Economic Data; What to Expect?

3 days ago
bitcoin collateral

Summing Up The Case For Bitcoin As The Future Of Collateral

3 days ago
Bitcoin Hopes to Retest Record Highs After Powell’s Testimony; Here’s Why

Bitcoin Hopes to Retest Record Highs After Powell’s Testimony; Here’s Why

4 days ago

Premium Partners

Top Brokers

eToro

eToro

Review · Visit
Evolve Markets

Evolve Markets

Review · Visit
ArbiSmart

ArbiSmart

Review · Visit
PrimeXBT

PrimeXBT

Review · Visit
Moneta Markets

Moneta Markets

Review · Visit

Top Casinos

BitStarz

BitStarz

Review · Visit
mBit

mBit

Review · Visit
CryptoGames

CryptoGames

Review · Visit
Bonusfinder DE

Bonusfinder DE

Review · Visit
Bspin

Bspin

Review · Visit
Wolf Bet

Wolf Bet

Review · Visit

Top Sportsbooks

1xBit

1xBit

Review · Visit

Press Releases

What Will Happen to Oil Production and Distribution in 2021, and How Can You Make a Profit on It

February 28, 2021

Bitcoin Gaming Platform FreeBitco.in Acquires 3.75 Billion FUN Tokens

February 26, 2021

60-Minute IFO, 187 Times Over-Raised, 40 Times the Price, 98 Million US Dollar Marketcap: Berry Data Has Become a Bright Star on BSC

February 26, 2021

Newsletter Signup


ABOUT US

NewsBTC is a cryptocurrency news service that covers bitcoin news today, technical analysis & forecasts for bitcoin price and other altcoins. Here at NewsBTC, we are dedicated to enlightening everyone about bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.

We cover BTC news related to bitcoin exchanges, bitcoin mining and price forecasts for various cryptocurrencies.

COMPANY

  • Advertising
  • Comments Policy
  • Privacy Center
  • Sitemap
  • About Us
  • Contact

Technical Analysis

  • Bitcoin (BTC)
  • Ethereum (ETH)
  • Ripple (XRP)
  • Chainlink (LINK)
  • Cardano (ADA)
  • Tezos (XTZ)

LINKS

Auto Trading Software ▸

Cryptocurrency news

  • Bitcoin
  • Ethereum
  • Ripple
  • Chainlink
  • Cardano
  • EOS
  • Tezos

© 2020 NewsBTC. All Rights Reserved.

  • News
    • Bitcoin
    • Ethereum
    • Ripple
    • Cardano
    • Tezos
    • EOS
    • Chainlink
    • Sponsored
    • Press Releases
  • Analysis
    • Bitcoin (BTC)
    • Ethereum (ETH)
    • Cardano (ADA)
    • Chainlink (LINK)
    • Litecoin (LTC)
    • Tezos (XTZ)
    • Zcash (ZEC)
    • EOS
    • YearnFinance (YFI)
  • Education
    • Accepting Bitcoin payments
    • Using Bitcoin
    • What is Bitcoin Mining
    • How to Trade Bitcoin
    • How to Buy Bitcoin
    • Digital Currency Exchange
    • Proof of Existence
    • Is Bitcoin legal?
    • Bitcoin Books
  • Trading Course
  • Directory
    • Crypto Businesses
    • Bitcoin Brokers
    • Casinos
    • Sportsbooks
  • Trade
  • Gamble +

© 2020 NewsBTC. All Rights Reserved.

This website uses cookies. By continuing to use this website you are giving consent to cookies being used. Visit our Privacy Center or Cookie Policy.