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bitcoin bear bull

Bitcoin Bear Market Comparison Says It Is Almost Time For Bull Season

Tony Spilotro by Tony Spilotro
10 months ago
in Bitcoin
Reading Time: 3 mins read
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There is no denying that Bitcoin has been ripped to shreds by bears over the last several months after setting a new all-time high in November last year. Even with new highs, the rally is largely viewed as a failure without a dramatic cycle conclusion.

But what if that rally was part of a bear phase, that only now is about to end? In a new direct comparison between bear phases in Bitcoin since 2018, it could indicate that it is almost time for another bull season any day now.

Bull Market Cyclical Behavior

Months ago, the term “few” was thrown around by the crypto community because not enough people understood the potential of what Bitcoin could do for them financially. Today, very few people are expecting Bitcoin to rally from here.

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Oftentimes, when the hive sentiment is at its most frothy, deep corrections set the masses straight. At the moment, Bitcoin bears are salivating for below $30,000, but they might not ever get it according to a new comparison.

Related Reading | Bitcoin Mimics Textbook Market Sentiment Cycle, What Happens When Confidence Returns?

Any market exhibits cyclical behavior on multiple timeframes. There are bear and bull markets, and even uptrends and downtrends within them that alternate based on moods.

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But what if these alternating patterns of mood changes were predictable? That’s what the below comparison aims to find out.

BTCUSD_2022-04-15_10-16-09

This comparison chart says it is time's up for bears | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com

Bitcoin Bear Phases Compared

In the comparison above, the 2018 bear market, 2019 to 2020 bear phase, and the current consolidation phase are juxtaposed aside one another. Each fractal measures at roughly 460 days. Alternating between each bear phase, is a short bullish impulse that shocks the world.

Bull impulses last a mere 98 days, but tend to takes prices to unprecedented levels. At minimum, these bull phases have churned out more than 300% ROI. A 300% return from $40,000 would take the price per BTC to $120,000.

Related Reading | This Bitcoin “Heatmap” Suggests A Blazing Cycle Peak Is Still Ahead

Each bear phase lasted just over 14 months. Edwin “Sedge” Coppock, creator of the technical indicator called the Coppock curve, found that the average time it takes for a human to get over mourning a loss was an average of 11 to 14 months. This, in theory, is how long it should take the average investor to get over their “loss” related to Bitcoin and are able to think positively again.

With only days potentially left until another bull impulse begins based on the above comparisons, will Bitcoin price really dip below $30,000 like the market is bracing for, or will a reversal catch the community off guard?

Follow @TonySpilotroBTC on Twitter or join the TonyTradesBTC Telegram for exclusive daily market insights and technical analysis education. Please note: Content is educational and should not be considered investment advice.

Featured image from iStockPhoto, Charts from TradingView.com
Tags: bitcoinbtcbtcusd
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Tony Spilotro

Tony Spilotro

I'm Tony Spilotro. Behind the pseudonym, I'm a global remote work leader with a decade of award-winning content experience and excellence. Here, I explore my newfound passions pertaining to privacy, finance, economics, politics, cryptography, property rights, and other libertarian-esque views. I am a Bitcoin evangelist, maximalist, and educator whenever I can be, helping to spread its message of freedom from government control, monetary policy mismanagement, and passing the buck - literally – to future generations. My journey from a curious retail crypto investor to a serious Bitcoin advocate, trader, and technical analyst is an unusual one, but life-changing nonetheless and has become less about money and more about a long-overdue revolution. While a firm believer in the laws governing math and science, I am profoundly fascinated by the impact of astrology and astronomy including moon and solar cycles and planetary alignment and their ability to influence and potentially predict markets. It hasn't yet clicked for me as to how to put anything to use, but I consider it my current rabbit hole I can't yet dig out of. My perspective of growing up alongside the internet, the dot com era, the Great Recession, and roots in video games collecting coins and rare items caused Bitcoin to immediately make sense to me. Through all of these lenses, I seek to produce content that is educational and entertaining, and I thank you sincerely for taking the time to read what I have to say. Please follow me on Twitter at @tonyspilotroBTC and feel free to drop me a line if you would like to work together.

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