Bitcoin has rebounded strongly since the capitulation lows seen in March. Since March 13th, in fact, the cryptocurrency has gained in excess of 150%, having rallied from $3,700 to $9,250.
With this, many have been certain that BTC is back in a bull market.
According to a trader, this is technically not the case. But that’s not to say that Bitcoin won’t soon enter a bull market.
Related Reading: 43% of Crypto Twitter: Bitcoin Will See 1,000% Yearly Returns Again
Analyst: Technically, Bitcoin Is Still in a Bear Market
Bitcoin’s price performance may have been strong over recent months, but that doesn’t mean it’s in a bull market. A trader explained on July 9th:
“Allow me to explain: BTC hasn’t made a higher high in a full year, so per definition, it’s not a bull market. BTC has made lower lows and lower highs consecutively for a full year, so per definition, it’s a bear market,” he wrote referencing the chart below that shows BTC’s price action and macro phases.
BTC's macro price action with macro phases overlayed. Chart by Limitless (@LimitlessXBT on Twitter), chart from TradingView.com
The fact of the matter is that Bitcoin’s June 2nd high at ~$10,460 is below that seen in February. During February’s rally, the cryptocurrency moved slightly higher above $10,600, according to some exchange data.
Until BTC can buck that trend and pass $10,600 to set a new medium-term high, it technically remains in a bear market.
A Bull Run Is Coming, Some Signs Suggest
A Bitcoin bull run is coming, though, a variety of fundamental and technical signs have suggested.
As reported by NewsBTC previously, an analyst observed last week that BTC has formed a “hidden bullish divergence” with its relative strength index. Divergences form when an indicator moves in the opposite direction of an asset’s price. The analyst that identified this signal said that the existence of this signal confirms a rally to $10,500 and beyond is possible.
BTC relative strength index analysis by trader Credible Crypto (@CredibleCrypto on Twitter). Chart from Tradingview.com
This optimism was echoed to at T by another trader. After Bitcoin rallied to $9,400 on July 8th, he identified five signs that think the cryptocurrency will hit $10,500, then $11,500.
Fundamentals corroborate the expectations of upside.
Bloomberg analyst Mike McGlone shared the tweet below on July 2nd, writing that he thinks that BTC’s consolidation will resolve to the upside:
“Volatility should continue declining as BTC extends its transition to the crypto equivalent of gold from a highly speculative asset, yet we expect recent compression to be resolved via higher prices.”
#Bitcoin Blahs? Benchmark #Crypto Looked Similar Before Past Gains —
Volatility should continue declining as Bitcoin extends its transition to the crypto equivalent of gold from a highly speculative asset, yet we expect recent compression to be resolved via higher prices. pic.twitter.com/XbIMv5AYAf
— Mike McGlone (@mikemcglone11) July 2, 2020
Predicating this positive belief is, Grayscale’s mass purchases of Bitcoin, increasing adoption of BTC via futures, and a strengthening gold price.
Featured Image from Shutterstock Price tags: xbtusd, btcusd, btcusdt Charts from TradingView.com By Definition, BTC Is Still in a Bear Market: Why This Will Soon Change