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Breaking News: Coinbase Confirms DOJ Investigation Following Major Security Incident

Bitcoin’s Biggest Intra-Market Risk Right Now – What You Need To Know

Jake Simmons
Jake Simmons
1 year ago
3 mins read
bitcoin network

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The monetary policy of the Federal Reserve (FED) continues to be the all-determining factor for both the financial markets worldwide and Bitcoin. With this in mind, all eyes are currently on November 02, when the next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting is scheduled.

However, while this is an external market risk, there is also an internal market risk currently developing that should not be underestimated from a historical perspective: a Bitcoin miner capitulation.

The lower Bitcoin falls and the longer the price stays at the current level, the more pressure is put on Bitcoin miners’ margins by a divergence of price and hash rate.

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Bitcoin’s Mining Difficulty Reaches A New ATH

A look at the Bitcoin mining difficulty adjustment that took place yesterday shows that it increased again by 3.44%. This follows the historical adjustment of October 10, when the mining difficulty increased by 13.55%.

#Bitcoin mining difficulty has just increased by +3.44%, making another new all time high as hash rate continues to soar.

Miners are relentless. pic.twitter.com/4GEyHxYoZ8

— Dylan LeClair 🟠 (@DylanLeClair_) October 24, 2022

The difficulty is updated approximately every two weeks to account for the fluctuating hash power on the network and to ensure a minting of new Bitcoins approximately every 10 minutes (block time).

Yesterday’s adjustment is thus likely to put further pressure on already struggling miners who are seeing dwindling profits. Will Clemente, co-founder of Reflexivity Research, asserted that “miners are the biggest intra-Bitcoin market risk right now IMO”.

A compelling theory for the steady rise in the hash rate, he says, is that a well-funded player is trying to squeeze out inefficient miners and acquire their assets on the cheap, “Rockefeller-style”.

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1 year ago

As a result, a miner capitulation could occur. During this event, the non-profitable miners would have to sell both their mining hardware and their holdings of Bitcoins. On a large scale, this could trigger a significant selling pressure on the Bitcoin price, as seen with past miner capitulations.

Clemente stated that the likelihood of a second miner capitulation after the first period in June is rising. The leading indicator to watch are the hash ribbons.

Bitcoin Hash Ribbons
The likelihood of a second Bitcoin miner capitulation is rising. Source: Twitter

Clemente concluded:

Thinking about who this entity(s) is that feels that it’s advantageous to mine with BTC price down 70%, energy prices high, & hashprice at all-time lows. Wonder if its a large player(s) with excess energy or access to dirt-cheap energy. […]  That’s why I’m so curious because this would have to be someone with extremely low energy costs. Haven’t seen any great answers thus far.

Big Name Bitcoin Miners In Trouble?

Dylan LeClair, senior analyst at UTXO Management and co-founder of 21stParadigm also noted that the hash price, or miner revenue per TeraHash, recently passed the 2020 all-time low. If history repeats from previous bear markets, the price decline has just begun, he said.

In addition, he revealed that he has heard “some juicy rumors flying around about some big name Bitcoin miners being in trouble here”.

The continued mounting pressure on Bitcoin miners can end in two scenarios, according to him. Either this is the bottom. “The lack of vol shows apathy from sellers. Extended consolidation/accumulation period,” LeClair stated.

However, the scenario considered more likely by the analyst is that BTC has currently reached a level like $6,000 in 2018/2019. If hash rate continues to soar, then the increasing pressure will result in a miner capitulation event.

At press time, the BTC price continued to lack volatility and lingered around $19,300.

BTC USD
Bitcoin trading sideways. Source: TradingView
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Jake Simmons
Jake Simmons

Jake Simmons

Jake Simmons, a dedicated crypto journalist, has been passionate about Bitcoin since 2016 when he first learned about it. Through his extensive work with NewsBTC.com and Bitcoinist.com, Jake has become a trusted voice in the crypto community, guiding newcomers and seasoned enthusiasts alike towards a deeper understanding of this dynamic field.

Read more

His mission is simple yet profound: to demystify Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies and make them accessible to everyone.
With a professional career in the Bitcoin and crypto scene that began right after graduating with a degree in Information Systems in 2017, Jake has immersed himself in the industry. Jake joined the NewsBTC Group in late 2022. His educational background provides him with the technical prowess and analytical skills necessary to dissect complex topics and present them in an understandable format. Whether you are a casual reader curious about Bitcoin or an investor seeking to navigate the latest market trends, Jake’s insights offer valuable perspectives that bridge the gap between complex technology and everyday usage.

Jake is not just a reporter on technological trends; he is a firm believer in the transformative potential of Bitcoin over traditional fiat currencies. To him, the current financial system is on the brink of chaos, propelled by unchecked government actions and flawed Keynesian economic policies. Drawing from the principles of the Austrian school of economics, Jake views Bitcoin not merely as a digital asset but as a crucial step towards rectifying a failing monetary system. His libertarian views reinforce his stance that just as the church was separated from the state, so too should money be freed from governmental control.

For Jake, Bitcoin represents more than just an investment; it's a peaceful revolution. He envisions a future where Bitcoin fosters a sustainable and responsible financial framework for generations to come. His advocacy is not about opposition but about evolution, about laying the groundwork for a system that prioritizes transparency and equity over secrecy and inequality.

As a journalist, Jake’s articles are crafted with the precision of a scholar and the passion of a true believer. He provides not only news but also thoughtful analysis that connects the dots between daily developments and larger economic theories. His work is a beacon for those lost in the technical jargon often associated with crypto discussions, illuminating the practical implications and benefits of these technologies.

In summary, Jake Simmons is not just reporting on a revolution; he wants to be part of it, fully committed to enhancing public understanding and adoption of Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies. His work is more than just a collection of articles; it’s a resource, a guide, and a companion for anyone ready to explore the potential of this digital frontier. Whether you are taking your first steps into crypto or are a veteran looking to stay on top of the latest trends, Jake’s insights provide clarity and foresight in an often unpredictable industry. Join him on this journey to reshape the world of finance, one post at a time.

You can engage with his latest takes on Twitter: @realJakeSimmons.

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Disclaimer: The information found on NewsBTC is for educational purposes only. It does not represent the opinions of NewsBTC on whether to buy, sell or hold any investments and naturally investing carries risks. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use information provided on this website entirely at your own risk.

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Reason to trust

Strict editorial policy that focuses on accuracy, relevance, and impartiality
Created by industry experts and meticulously reviewed
The highest standards in reporting and publishing
How Our News is Made

Strict editorial policy that focuses on accuracy, relevance, and impartiality

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