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In an interview, Arthur Hayes—co-founder of the pioneering crypto derivatives exchange BitMEX—laid out his outlook for Bitcoin, predicting a momentous rally fueled by what he describes as “stealth printing” by global central banks. While Hayes has long stressed the crucial role of liquidity in driving the Bitcoin price, his latest remarks go even further, suggesting a new phase of expansion is imminent.
Bitcoin’s 4-Year Cycle Is History
Hayes believes that Bitcoin’s original four-year “halving cycle” framework has been overshadowed by the asset’s ascent into mainstream financial consciousness. According to him, early on, Bitcoin’s market dynamics were more closely tied to mining profitability cycles.
However, those days appear largely gone: “Now that Bitcoin and crypto are a bona fide asset class…everyone’s responding to it,” Hayes said. “It has transitioned from this technological digital bearer asset into the best smoke alarm for fiat liquidity that we have globally.”
Rather than focus on halving events, Hayes urges investors to track how many dollars, euros, yen, and yuan are actively being created—or destroyed—by the world’s major central banks. In his view, the Federal Reserve, the People’s Bank of China, the Bank of Japan, and the European Central Bank drive the most significant flows: “All I care about is fiat liquidity. As long as we believe [Bitcoin] works, then it just comes down to how many fiat things are in the denominator, and then you just get to the price.”
According to Hayes, markets are underestimating the US Federal Reserve’s willingness to revert to looser monetary policy far sooner than publicly stated. He calls recent Fed moves “stealth printing,” arguing that Chair Jerome Powell is quietly laying groundwork to keep credit conditions easy—even though official language still references inflation concerns.
Hayes pointed to signs in the Fed’s communications that quantitative tightening (QT) will slow or even pause. One such indicator is Powell’s mention of offsetting any reduction in mortgage-backed securities with fresh purchases of US Treasuries: “They said they might taper QT to be flat […] That’s very positive for dollar liquidity.”
He also noted Powell’s statements that any inflation arising from tariffs would be considered “transitory”—in effect granting the Fed cover to maintain accommodative policies: “Tariffs don’t matter anymore to Powell, and they shouldn’t matter anymore as crypto investors […] because we know that Powell’s going to continue to provide the monetary conditions […] that we need to have our portfolios go up in value in fiat dollar terms.”
The Bottom Is (Probably) In
In Hayes’s estimation, the worst of Bitcoin’s recent downturn may already be behind us. Although he concedes that the market could still retest lows, he contends that Bitcoin has likely established a key floor: “On balance, we probably hit a bottom of 76,000 […] Does that mean that we’re not going to retest it? No, of course not, but if I had to make a bet, I would bet that we go higher rather than lower.”
For Hayes, this is a question of recognizing a turning point in monetary policy. Once the Federal Reserve and other central banks signal they are fully done tightening—“or never truly started,” in his phrasing—he expects Bitcoin to climb.
Hayes also dismissed the idea that looming crypto regulations in the United States or elsewhere could meaningfully stifle Bitcoin’s trajectory. He believes Bitcoin’s permissionless, decentralized design makes it effectively impervious to traditional regulatory blockades: “Crypto regulation doesn’t matter. Bitcoin doesn’t need anyone’s permission. It’s moving with or without them […] If Bitcoin trades on tradfi regulations, then I don’t want to own it. I want something immune to regulation.”
In one of his most attention-grabbing statements, Hayes contemplated whether Bitcoin could achieve “a numerically interesting number”—including the possibility of $1 million—during the next wave of dollar-driven liquidity. Although he did not definitively lock in an exact price ceiling, he mentioned that it might be a psychologically resonant figure: “I put $1 million Bitcoin out there- I hope it will be $1 million dollars but you know maybe it’s just 666,000 or 500,000 or 250,000 what some round number that the human mind sees as significant, for some arbitrary reason.”
For Hayes, it comes down to global monetary authorities deciding they have “gone too far” in trying to rein in spending and inflation. Once central banks resume large-scale liquidity injections, he argues, the stage is set for rapid upside in Bitcoin’s price.
Arthur Hayes’s perspective centers on the idea that Bitcoin’s fate hinges almost exclusively on global liquidity conditions. He remains convinced that central bankers, especially at the Fed, are closer to providing a renewed wave of monetary stimulus than the market believes—paving the way for a dramatic Bitcoin rally.
While volatility remains inherent, Hayes insists that the largest cryptocurrency is poised to move swiftly once the policy backdrop aligns. “If you know what to look for, the clues are everywhere. The bottom is in, liquidity is coming back, and Bitcoin… it’s already turning the corner.” Where that corner leads, according to Hayes, could be as high as $1 million—starting, he suggests, as soon as April.
At press time, BTC traded at $85,765.
