It isn’t a secret that last week’s price action has some convinced that the year-long crypto bear trend is coming to a head. In fact, Fundstrat’s in-house Bitcoin (BTC) optimist, Tom Lee, recently told Bloomberg that he adamantly believes that the cryptocurrency market can now be classified as a bull market, looking to the 200-day moving average for BTC to back his point.
And interestingly, key technical indicators might agree with this buoyant sentiment.
Bitcoin Trend Indicator Flips Green, Upside Could Be In Store
According to analyst Altcoin Pyscho, Guppy, a technical indicator that weighs moving averages to predict price trends, has “flipped green” on the one-day Bitcoin chart on BitMEX.
THE GUPPY HAS FLIPPED GREEN
Unless this is a fakeout, which has only happened twice on the bitcoin daily chart, the trend has officially been reversed.
This is where you should start longing every bullish SFP (with stops) pic.twitter.com/aGHoqSl7jT
While there’s a fleeting chance that this shift in the Guppy is a bull trap or “fakeout,” which has purportedly only occurred twice in BTC’s history, Pyscho asserts that the bear trend has likely been reversed. He adds:
“This is where you start longing every bullish swing failure pattern (with stops).”
The popular Twitter pundit is far from the first to have proclaimed an end to bears, accentuating that this subset of traders is likely nearing hibernation.
Earlier this week, Alex Krüger explained that if BTC breaks past $4,200, which it did, it would be fair to say that the previously ongoing downturn had been reversed. Krüger even quipped that he is “going to miss this big fellow.” And more recently, as hinted at earlier, Tom Lee claimed that Bitcoin is officially in a “bull run” state, drawing attention to the fact that it closed above a key moving average, thereby cementing the validity of the recent surge.
Not So Fast, Weekly Guppy Indicates Otherwise
Funnily enough, however, the one-week Guppy is telling an entirely different story. Nunya Bizniz recently wrote on Twitter that the last time Bitcoin’s one-week Guppy looked as it is now, BTC rallied into the top of its range, before a final capitulation event, which brought the cryptocurrency lower than the seeming bottom. Thus, if history repeats, BTC will move to as high as $5,600 in the coming weeks, before a rapid sell-off that brings the asset under $3,000 for mere days.
BTC: Guppy. pic.twitter.com/1PbWKaJNju
— Nunya Bizniz (@Pladizow) April 5, 2019
A trader going by the moniker “Budd” made a similar point, explaining that his analysis of the same weekly indicator shows that there are a “few more months of sideways” before an eventual rally, making it clear that this recent price action doesn’t exactly confirm that BTC hitting all-time highs soon is possible.
— ₿udd (@crypto_budd) April 5, 2019
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