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CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju announced today that Bitcoin’s bull cycle “is over” and warned investors to brace for “6–12 months of bearish or sideways price action.” This development comes after the on-chain analytics veteran had previously urged caution but maintained a measured outlook on the market as recently as two weeks ago.
Is The Bitcoin Bull Run Over?
In a post shared today via X, Ki stated:“Bitcoin bull cycle is over, expecting 6–12 months of bearish or sideways price action.”
Along with the comment, the CEO highlighted the Bitcoin PnL Index Cyclical Signals—an index that aggregates multiple on-chain metrics, such as MVRV, SOPR, and NUPL, to pinpoint market tops, bottoms, and cyclical turning points in Bitcoin’s price. According to Ki, this indicator has historically offered reliable buy and sell signals.
He further explained how an automated alert, previously sent to his subscribers, combined these metrics into a 365-day moving average. Once the trend in this 1-year moving average changes, it often signals a significant market inflection point. As proof, Ki also shared a chart: “This alert applies PCA to on-chain indicators like MVRV, SOPR, and NUPL to compute a 365-day moving average. This signal identifies inflection points where the trend of the 1-year moving average changes.”
Ki pointed to drying liquidity and fresh selling pressure by “new whales” who, he said, are unloading Bitcoin at lower prices. Notably, he revealed that CryptoQuant users who subscribed to his alerts received this signal before today’s public announcement. “With fresh liquidity drying up, new whales are selling Bitcoin at lower prices. Cryptoquant users who subscribed to my alerts received this signal a few days ago. I assume they’ve already adjusted their positions, so I’m posting this now.”
This latest declaration contrasts remarks from just four days ago, on March 14, when Ki struck a more cautious tone, stating: “Bitcoin demand seems stuck, but it’s too early to call it a bear market.”
At that time, he shared a chart of the Bitcoin Apparent Demand (30-day sum) indicator, which had turned slightly negative—an early signal that demand might be tapering off. Although Ki pointed out that demand could still rebound (as it has in past sideways phases), he acknowledged the possibility of Bitcoin teetering on the edge of a bear market.
The pivot in sentiment is especially notable given Ki’s stance from two weeks ago. In that earlier post, he opined that the “bull cycle is still intact,” crediting strong fundamentals and growing mining capacity: “There’s no significant on-chain activity, and key indicators are neutral, suggesting the bull cycle is still intact. Fundamentals remain strong, with more mining rigs coming online.”
However, he also cautioned that the market could turn if sentiment did not improve, particularly in the United States. With today’s announcement, the warning has evidently crystallized. Reflecting on the potential downside scenario, Ki said at the time: “If the cycle ends here, it’s an outcome no one wanted—not old whales, mining companies, TradFi, or even Trump. (FYI, the market doesn’t care about retail.)”
At press time, BTC traded at $83,059.
