Bitcoin Caught Between Fierce Sellers And Scarce Buyers, Why $36K Could Be Imminent

Reynaldo Marquez

3 years ago

2 mins read

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Bitcoin has taken another turn to the downside, at the time of writing, after moving sideways during the weekend. As NewsBTC has been covering over the past days, BTC lost critical support at around $40,000, and seems likely to continue its downtrend.

Bitcoin is trading at $38,118 with a 2.6% loss in the past 24-hours.

Bitcoin BTC BTCUSD — BTC trends downwards on the 4-hour chart. Source: BTCUSD Tradingview

Per a recent report from Glassnode Insights, Bitcoin has reached a delicate equilibrium. As the benchmark crypto moves back into yearly lows, buyers are trying to absorb bears and establish new support.

However, as the report claims, selling pressure has been “persistent” as speculator dump their BTC, probably due to the current macro-economic environment. This status quo has been maintained for over two months, as short-term investors jump out of the market.

This new normal could break at any point if bulls continue to lose momentum, or sellers reached a level of exhaustion. Glassnode Insights added:

With prices trading sideways in recent weeks, a relative equilibrium has been established. However, given the limited incoming fresh demand, this delicate balance can be disrupted by any significant degree of seller exhaustion, or conversely a re-invigoration of sellers.

In the chart below, it is easier to visualize the above with an equilibrium created in the amount of Bitcoin held in crypto exchange platform as BTC’s price moves sideways. This metric has trend to the downside since March 2020, after the event called “Black Thursday”.

Furthermore, the report claims speculator record a 15% aggregate unrealized loss. The majority of these investors bought at around $46,400, and they are currently existing their positions at a loss in opposition to long term holders which record an average purchase price of $39,200. Glassnode added:

We can see that non-trivial daily losses have been sustained for over two months, equivalent to of around 0.5% of the Market Cap per day. Whilst significant, losses of this magnitude are nowhere near the extreme capitulation levels seen in the 2018 bear market, March 2020, or in May 2021.

The Most Critical Level For Bitcoin

In case of future downside, Bitcoin could experience a bounce at 3 critical levels. In the short term, $36,000 should hold to prevent a major drawdown as there are around $20 million in bids orders sitting at those levels.

This support has been swelling over the past days, as data from Material Indicators points out. At around $35,000, there are additional $15 million in bids orders which provides an extra layer of protection against selling pressure. Remains to be seen if these levels will hold.

In higher timeframes, $29,000 stands as a major psychological price point. During 2021’s downtrend, BTC found support at those levels, and losing them could trigger further losses. Glassnode highlights another important level:

Realized Price is currently at $24.1k, and is the average price of all coins valued when they were last moved on-chain. Historically, this has been a very sound cycle support level, and suggests that the aggregate market is still holding an unrealized profit of 63%.

Reynaldo Marquez

A literature major, Reynaldo Márquez has been deeply immersed in the crypto industry since 2017. His journey began with translating articles for various crypto news outlets, a role he took on with zeal. In 2018, amidst a challenging market, he embraced his first writing assignment, demonstrating his unwavering commitment to the nascent industry and the promise of change it bears for many people worldwide.
In March 2021, he joined the prestigious crypto news outlet NewsBTC and Bitcoinist, where he not only reported on the latest crypto news but also had the privilege of interviewing some of the industry's most influential figures. A year later, his dedication and hard work were recognized, and he was promoted to Managing Editor, a position he currently holds with pride.
He believes in honesty, good communication, hard work, and the power of cryptocurrency and its potential to transform people's lives, especially those alienated by the legacy financial system. Born in 1992 in Venezuela, Reynaldo is familiar with how governments and central banks can negatively affect people, their everyday lives, and their futures by creating inflation and erasing their hopes for a better future. Thus, like many Venezuelans, he embraced this new technology to help him and his family navigate difficult times.
In another life, Reynaldo would have pursued a career as an investigator, most likely tracking down the origins of the Cyberpunk movement with the publication of William Gibson’s ‘Neuromancer.’ The intersection between fiction and reality, with the materialization of Bitcoin in 2009, would have allowed him to dive deep into the crypto sphere as something more than a financial phenomenon but also a cultural shift in society that was brewing since the XX century, and maybe even sooner, in the XIX century with the publication of Henry David Thoreau’s ‘Civil Disobedience.’
But that’s for another life. In this one, Reynaldo has been trading to improve his trading skills. Since 2023, he has been trying to learn Python to create successful strategies and find ways to execute them. It is a difficult task, which continues to keep him busy today and will most likely continue to keep him busy in the near and long term.
In his free time, he enjoys lifting heavy objects, reading, watching movies, and listening to his favorite music. Some of his favorite authors are Walt Whitman, William Faulkner, Allen Ginsberg, James Baldwin, Raymond Carver, Ray Bradbury, George Orwell, Mario Vargas Llosa, Reinaldo Arenas, Rafael Cadenas, and many others. Lately, he has been primarily interested in reading about dystopic societies, a topic that deeply resonates with the crypto industry.
Since 2023, he has lived in Spain with his wife. He loves the weather, the food, and the people and their culture. They both expect to travel much more within the country they now call home and beyond its border. He hopes to retire with his wife, maybe in a quiet place near a beach, but most likely in a city close to a library and a university with his kids and, hopefully, grandkids.

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