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Breaking News: Coinbase Confirms DOJ Investigation Following Major Security Incident

Bitcoin Crossroads: Indicator Signals Short-Term Top, But Final Bullish Impulse Is Possible

Tony "The Bull" Severino
Tony "The Bull" Severino
1 year ago
3 mins read

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Bitcoin price is up well over 60% year-to-date, and has recovered 200% from the Black Thursday low. The cryptocurrency broke free from downtrend resistance, and all signs point to a new uptrend well underway.

However, assets never move up in a straight line, and corrections are often healthy for long-term growth. A near-perfect top-sniping indicator may be warning that a short-term top is here. But the first-ever cryptocurrency may have another, final bullish impulse left before things cool off for a while.

Has The Next Cryptocurrency Bull Market Already Begun?

Bitcoin, historically, is one of the most volatile assets to ever exist. It often rises a few thousand percent during bull runs, only to later correct as much as 80 to 90% during bear market drawdowns.

Still, those who sell high and buy low, can make a fortune on the best performing asset of all time.

The cryptocurrency rocketed to superstardom in 2017, becoming a household name after topping out at $20,000. Now, nearly three full years later and a bear market now behind us, Bitcoin is ready for another uptrend.

Related Reading | Why This Weekly Close In Bitcoin Is Critical For Bullish Continuation

Downtrend resistance is now cleared. The FOMO trigger of $10,000 is now support. The asset’s halving has passed, and any miner-driven death spiral has been narrowly avoided.

All that’s left is a strong impulse move higher. But after such strong yearly performance, a steady uptrend since March, and investors sitting in substantial profit, a short-term top could be near. Sentiment is also at the longest stretch of extreme greed in history.

Coinciding with all these other bearish factors, a valuation-based indicator that in the past has accurately called tops in the cryptocurrency perfectly is now saying a top could be near.

bitcoin btcusd nvt crypto BTCUSD Daily NVT Ratio Signals Top | Source: TradingView

Bitcoin NVT Signal Points To Top Soon, But Powerful Parabolic Impulse Is Still Possible

The NVT signal, or network value to transactions ratio, helps to signal when Bitcoin price is overvalued compared to the total value being transacted across its network. In the past, when this signal turns red, it says a top is near.

It triggered at Bitcoin’s $20,000 peak, again in late 2018 before the plunge to bear market lows. The indicator’s movements during that phase, eerily resemble the current oscillations on the NVT signal.

If the indicator is correct, and price action mimics late 2018, a big crash could be on the way. But there was one major anomaly on the NVT signal, which could suggest there’s one more, major impulse move left in Bitcoin before the asset cools off for some time again.

bitcoin btcusd nvt impulse burst


According to the NVT, it would have signaled a top in Bitcoin back in early 2019, just after breaking out above $4,000. The NVT lit up red, much like it is now.

But what followed was another two months of powerful, parabolic price action. Interestingly, the NVT indicator movement also appears to match the peaks and troughs of the NVT signal back then.

 bitcoin btcusd nvt

BTCUSD Daily NVT Parabolic Rally Fractal $30,000 Target | Source: TradingView

Even more striking, is the fact that price action almost perfectly resembles the consolidation phase just before the cryptocurrency exploded through $10,000, and set its 2019 high at $14,000.

When the NVT first signaled, the top wasn’t in fact in, and any investors who took action based on the signal, would have missed out on nearly $10,000 in returns.

Related Reading | This Tool Has Called Nearly Every Bitcoin Top, And It Just Triggered Again

If the same sort of impulsive move happens again, Bitcoin price could trade as high as $30,000 per BTC before another extended downtrend to confirmed past resistance as support.

Clearly, Bitcoin is at a crossroads, and even some of the most reliable indicators in the crypto industry are currently confused, and sending mixed signals.

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Tony "The Bull" Severino
Tony "The Bull" Severino

Tony "The Bull" Severino

Tony "The Bull" Severino, CMT, is a distinguished figure in the cryptocurrency analysis sector, renowned for his in-depth technical expertise and innovative approach to market trends. As the Head of Research at NewsBTC, Tony leads a team dedicated to providing cutting-edge insights and forecasts, helping both novice and experienced traders navigate the complexities of the crypto market.
A seasoned Chartered Market Technician, Tony's prowess in identifying and capitalizing on market patterns is unmatched. His academic and professional journey in market analysis has firmly established him as a leading authority in technical trading strategies. Tony’s approach is heavily influenced by the principles of Elliott Wave Theory, a method known for its rigorous assessment of investor psychology and price movements.

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Beyond his role at NewsBTC, Tony is the visionary founder of CoinChartist.io, an educational platform aimed at demystifying the nuances of cryptocurrency trading. CoinChartist.io serves as a valuable resource for traders seeking to enhance their technical analysis skills. The platform offers a range of learning tools and resources designed to empower traders with the knowledge to make informed trading decisions.

In addition to his educational initiatives, Tony is a prolific author and a dominant voice in the crypto community. He writes the CoinChartist VIP newsletter, a weekly dispatch that has become a staple among crypto enthusiasts, revered for its insightful analysis and actionable trading advice. This newsletter has consistently ranked as a best-seller on SubStack, boasting thousands of subscribers who rely on Tony’s expertise to guide their trading strategies.

Tony is also celebrated for his literary contributions to the field. He is the author of the highest-rated Crypto Trading Journal on Amazon.com, a testament to his ability to communicate complex trading concepts in an accessible manner. This journal is widely regarded as an essential tool for traders aiming to track their progress and refine their strategies.

Before his ascent in the financial analysis world, Tony honed his skills in journalism. His background in this field has endowed him with a unique ability to present intricate market dynamics in a clear and compelling manner, making his insights highly sought after by a broad audience that ranges from casual readers to professional traders.
His professional affiliations underscore his commitment to excellence and continuous learning. As a partner of Elliott Wave International and TradingView, Tony collaborates with other leading experts to enhance his knowledge and skills. His active membership in the CMT Association further aligns him with the highest standards of industry practices and ethics.

Tony’s nickname, "The Bull," aptly reflects his aggressive and optimistic outlook on the cryptocurrency markets. His forecasts often anticipate significant upturns, earning him a reputation for bullish predictions that have frequently led to lucrative outcomes for those who follow his advice.

In summary, Tony "The Bull" Severino, CMT, is more than just a technical analyst; he is a mentor, educator, and innovator whose influence in the cryptocurrency space continues to grow. His dedication to advancing the understanding of market forces and his commitment to providing high-quality, reliable analysis make him a pivotal figure in the world of cryptocurrency trading.

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Disclaimer: The information found on NewsBTC is for educational purposes only. It does not represent the opinions of NewsBTC on whether to buy, sell or hold any investments and naturally investing carries risks. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use information provided on this website entirely at your own risk.

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