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Breaking News: Bitcoin Price Slips Below $108,000: Peter Schiff Anticipates ‘Brutal’ Bear Market, CZ Responds
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Breaking News: Bitcoin Price Slips Below $108,000: Peter Schiff Anticipates ‘Brutal’ Bear Market, CZ Responds

Ikigai Founder Explains Why Bitcoin And Crypto Are ‘On The Verge Of Cannibalism’

Jake Simmons
Jake Simmons
1 year ago
3 mins read
Travis Kling Bitcoin crypto market analysis

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Travis Kling, Founder and Chief Investment Officer of Ikigai Asset Management, shared his insights on the current state of Bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency ecosystem, which he described as following: “Bitcoin is ~10% off of ATHs and the timeline appears to be on the verge of cannibalism.” In a series of detailed posts on X, Kling dissected the complex interplay of macroeconomic factors, ETF flows, and internal market dynamics that are shaping the cryptocurrency markets.

Why Is Bitcoin Trading Flat?

Kling began his analysis by addressing Bitcoin’s performance relative to the broader macroeconomic environment. Despite the NASDAQ surging 16% since April 19, following a low induced by market trepidations about rate cuts, Bitcoin has notably underperformed, remaining relatively flat. Kling pointed out, “BTC is trading pretty crappy relative to macro.” This underperformance is particularly striking given that during this period, the US equity markets have repeatedly set new all-time highs, while Bitcoin has stagnated.

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A significant part of Kling’s analysis focused on the dynamics of US spot Bitcoin ETFs. Starting May 13, the market witnessed 19 consecutive days of robust ETF inflows, totaling approximately $4 billion. Surprisingly, these substantial inflows only resulted in a 17% increase in Bitcoin’s price, which Kling argues is underwhelming. He noted, “It’s true BTC was +17% over this period, but why not more? Why not meaningfully higher highs?”

This question points to underlying issues in market structure or investor sentiment that might be damping the expected bullish response to inflow surges. Moreover, recent ETF outflows have coincided with a 7% drop in Bitcoin’s price over a similar period, further complicating the narrative around ETF impacts.

Kling suggests that while ETF inflows and outflows are significant, they might not fully capture the underlying market dynamics, indicating a complex interplay of arbitrage opportunities and market sentiment. “I think one thing we can say with confidence is that the ETFs have a lot of arb flow in them. Just look at the 13Fs. There’s NAV arb and then that gets laid off into futures and spot and then there’s the same basis trade that’s always been present in this market,” Kling wrote.

He also speculated about external factors affecting Bitcoin’s price, such as potential government sales of Bitcoin confiscated during the Silk Road operation. Although he admits lacking concrete proof, Kling aligns his hypothesis with the timing of certain market movements and known government actions. Additionally, he highlighted the influence of Ethereum on Bitcoin’s market dynamics, particularly during a week of significant activity around an Ethereum ETF, which saw the largest weekly ETH to BTC volume on record since a previous peak.

What To Expect From Ether And Altcoins?

Despite Ethereum’s influence on Bitcoin, ETH itself faces challenges. The anticipation surrounding spot Ethereum ETFs has not translated into sustained positive price action. Ethereum remains 30% below its all-time high, with upcoming ETFs potentially being a critical factor. Kling posits, “If [Ethereum ETF inflows] are strong, ETH likely rips hard. If they’re weak, ETH may sell off.” The uncertainty about the strength of these inflows and their market impact reflects broader market anxieties.

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The broader altcoin market is also suffering, with many tokens significantly off their highs and struggling to find a footing. Kling’s remarks about the altcoin sector are particularly stark: “The airdrop meta has been dying a slow death for months. Alts are overwhelmed with token unlocks from holders that are up many multiples and will hammer a nonexistent bid.” This scenario illustrates the difficulties facing smaller altcoins as they navigate a market dominated by major players like Bitcoin and Ethereum.

In conclusion, Kling’s comprehensive analysis suggests a cryptocurrency market at a critical juncture, facing internal competition and macroeconomic mismatches that could define its trajectory in the coming months.

“So overall that’s what has the timeline acting like prices are 75% lower than they are right now. BTC is probably heading higher this year. ETH is probably somewhere between fine and gangbusters this year, based on ETH ETF inflows. But the gap between BTC/ETH and everything else is wide and likely going to get wider this year. If crypto can muster up even a modicum of a legit narrative that can drive real inflows into Alts, it can all change in a hurry. But the current slate of ‘narratives’ is unlikely to get that done,” Kling concluded.

At press time, BTC traded at $65,138.

Bitcoin price
BTC price in danger of breakdown, 1-day chart | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com
Featured image from YouTube / What Bitcoin Did, chart from TradingView.com
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Jake Simmons
Jake Simmons

Jake Simmons

Jake Simmons, a dedicated crypto journalist, has been passionate about Bitcoin since 2016 when he first learned about it. Through his extensive work with NewsBTC.com and Bitcoinist.com, Jake has become a trusted voice in the crypto community, guiding newcomers and seasoned enthusiasts alike towards a deeper understanding of this dynamic field.

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His mission is simple yet profound: to demystify Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies and make them accessible to everyone.
With a professional career in the Bitcoin and crypto scene that began right after graduating with a degree in Information Systems in 2017, Jake has immersed himself in the industry. Jake joined the NewsBTC Group in late 2022. His educational background provides him with the technical prowess and analytical skills necessary to dissect complex topics and present them in an understandable format. Whether you are a casual reader curious about Bitcoin or an investor seeking to navigate the latest market trends, Jake’s insights offer valuable perspectives that bridge the gap between complex technology and everyday usage.

Jake is not just a reporter on technological trends; he is a firm believer in the transformative potential of Bitcoin over traditional fiat currencies. To him, the current financial system is on the brink of chaos, propelled by unchecked government actions and flawed Keynesian economic policies. Drawing from the principles of the Austrian school of economics, Jake views Bitcoin not merely as a digital asset but as a crucial step towards rectifying a failing monetary system. His libertarian views reinforce his stance that just as the church was separated from the state, so too should money be freed from governmental control.

For Jake, Bitcoin represents more than just an investment; it's a peaceful revolution. He envisions a future where Bitcoin fosters a sustainable and responsible financial framework for generations to come. His advocacy is not about opposition but about evolution, about laying the groundwork for a system that prioritizes transparency and equity over secrecy and inequality.

As a journalist, Jake’s articles are crafted with the precision of a scholar and the passion of a true believer. He provides not only news but also thoughtful analysis that connects the dots between daily developments and larger economic theories. His work is a beacon for those lost in the technical jargon often associated with crypto discussions, illuminating the practical implications and benefits of these technologies.

In summary, Jake Simmons is not just reporting on a revolution; he wants to be part of it, fully committed to enhancing public understanding and adoption of Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies. His work is more than just a collection of articles; it’s a resource, a guide, and a companion for anyone ready to explore the potential of this digital frontier. Whether you are taking your first steps into crypto or are a veteran looking to stay on top of the latest trends, Jake’s insights provide clarity and foresight in an often unpredictable industry. Join him on this journey to reshape the world of finance, one post at a time.

You can engage with his latest takes on Twitter: @realJakeSimmons.

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Disclaimer: The information found on NewsBTC is for educational purposes only. It does not represent the opinions of NewsBTC on whether to buy, sell or hold any investments and naturally investing carries risks. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use information provided on this website entirely at your own risk.

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Reason to trust

Strict editorial policy that focuses on accuracy, relevance, and impartiality
Created by industry experts and meticulously reviewed
The highest standards in reporting and publishing
How Our News is Made

Strict editorial policy that focuses on accuracy, relevance, and impartiality

Ad discliamer

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