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Breaking News: FTX Recovery Trust Set To Disburse $1.6 Billion By Month-End, FTT Price Skyrockets

Crypto Analyst: Bitcoin Is On The Cusp Of A Potential Death Cross

Reynaldo Marquez
Reynaldo Marquez
1 year ago
2 mins read
Bitcoin BTC BTCUSD

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Bitcoin has been moving in the mid and high range of $30,000. At the time of writing, the first cryptocurrency by market cap trades at $37,347 with 2.8% profits in the daily chart with moderate losses in higher timeframes.

Bitcoin BTC BTCUSD
BTC moving sideways in the daily chart. Source: BTCUSD Tradingview

BTC’s price was rejected at $38,000. This level has become a key resistance and must be overcome if the recovery is to be successful. Anonymous analyst Rekt Capital believes that there could be further downside in the coming weeks, as BTC’s price action hints at the formation of a “Death Cross”.

This indicator appears when BTC’s price 50 Exponential Moving Average (EMA) cross below the 200 Exponential Moving Average (EMA). They are the opposite of the “Golden Cross”, this indicator points to appreciation and is a signal that the bulls will retake the offensive.

With a “Death Cross”, as the analyst said, usually there is a wide period of downside for BTC’s price. During the 2013 bull run, it took 135 days or around 4 months for Bitcoin to form this indicator. In the meantime, the price dropped 73%. Rekt Capital said:

The Death Cross occurs with some lag So by the time it happens – a lot of downside will have already happened. That said, the Death Cross confirms a bearish trend and precedes even more downside. And in 2013, the Death Cross preceded an additional -71% drop…

Bitcoin BTC BTCUSD
Source: Rekt Capital

Is Bitcoin Bear Market Imminent?

Therefore, BTC’s price could continue to drop in the short term. This has historically occurred many times over during 2013, 2017, and 2019 and has coincided with local tops. The formation of this indicator has an average duration of 107 to 149 days.

If the analyst is correct, the “Death Cross” should occur during late July and early September of the current year, as seen in the chart below. A third scenario places the formation of this indicator for the current month, Rekt Capital said:

Right now, the 50 EMA (blue) and 200 EMA (black) are converging rapidly towards one another. If BTC doesn’t increase in its price soon and the EMAs continue at the same current pace… The Death Cross could happen sooner in mid-June 2021 (blue)

Bitcoin BTC BTCUSD
Source: Rekt Capital

On average, during a “Death Cross” event, the price dropped by around 60%. This is why Rekt Capital concludes that the 54% crash in BTC’s price is part of the pre-Death Cross period. If the theory holds, BTC’s price could see further downside to around $18,000.

BTC BTCUSD
Source: Rekt Capital

At the same time, this scenario could be the most profitable for investors that seize the moment.

What’s interesting about the scenario of a -55% post-Death Cross crash however is that it would result in a $18000 BTC. Which ties in with the 200-Week EMA (black) which tends to offer fantastic opportunities with outsized ROI for #BTC investors (green boxes highlight this)

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Reynaldo Marquez
Reynaldo Marquez

Reynaldo Marquez

A literature major, Reynaldo Márquez has been deeply immersed in the crypto industry since 2017. His journey began with translating articles for various crypto news outlets, a role he took on with zeal. In 2018, amidst a challenging market, he embraced his first writing assignment, demonstrating his unwavering commitment to the nascent industry and the promise of change it bears for many people worldwide.
In March 2021, he joined the prestigious crypto news outlet NewsBTC and Bitcoinist, where he not only reported on the latest crypto news but also had the privilege of interviewing some of the industry's most influential figures. A year later, his dedication and hard work were recognized, and he was promoted to Managing Editor, a position he currently holds with pride.
He believes in honesty, good communication, hard work, and the power of cryptocurrency and its potential to transform people's lives, especially those alienated by the legacy financial system. Born in 1992 in Venezuela, Reynaldo is familiar with how governments and central banks can negatively affect people, their everyday lives, and their futures by creating inflation and erasing their hopes for a better future. Thus, like many Venezuelans, he embraced this new technology to help him and his family navigate difficult times.
In another life, Reynaldo would have pursued a career as an investigator, most likely tracking down the origins of the Cyberpunk movement with the publication of William Gibson’s ‘Neuromancer.’ The intersection between fiction and reality, with the materialization of Bitcoin in 2009, would have allowed him to dive deep into the crypto sphere as something more than a financial phenomenon but also a cultural shift in society that was brewing since the XX century, and maybe even sooner, in the XIX century with the publication of Henry David Thoreau’s ‘Civil Disobedience.’
But that’s for another life. In this one, Reynaldo has been trading to improve his trading skills. Since 2023, he has been trying to learn Python to create successful strategies and find ways to execute them. It is a difficult task, which continues to keep him busy today and will most likely continue to keep him busy in the near and long term.
In his free time, he enjoys lifting heavy objects, reading, watching movies, and listening to his favorite music. Some of his favorite authors are Walt Whitman, William Faulkner, Allen Ginsberg, James Baldwin, Raymond Carver, Ray Bradbury, George Orwell, Mario Vargas Llosa, Reinaldo Arenas, Rafael Cadenas, and many others. Lately, he has been primarily interested in reading about dystopic societies, a topic that deeply resonates with the crypto industry.
Since 2023, he has lived in Spain with his wife. He loves the weather, the food, and the people and their culture. They both expect to travel much more within the country they now call home and beyond its border. He hopes to retire with his wife, maybe in a quiet place near a beach, but most likely in a city close to a library and a university with his kids and, hopefully, grandkids.

Disclaimer: The information found on NewsBTC is for educational purposes only. It does not represent the opinions of NewsBTC on whether to buy, sell or hold any investments and naturally investing carries risks. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use information provided on this website entirely at your own risk.

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Reason to trust

Strict editorial policy that focuses on accuracy, relevance, and impartiality
Created by industry experts and meticulously reviewed
The highest standards in reporting and publishing
How Our News is Made

Strict editorial policy that focuses on accuracy, relevance, and impartiality

Ad discliamer

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