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Breaking News: Tether Resolves Celsius Lawsuit With Major $300 Million Settlement Deal

This Unique Perspective Makes It Clear Bitcoin Cycles Are Lengthening

Tony "The Bull" Severino
Tony "The Bull" Severino
1 year ago
3 mins read
bitcoin crypto lengthening cycles

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Bitcoin breaking through resistance at $10,000 was a pivotal moment for the cryptocurrency. At the same time, it also breached a long-term downtrend line and top of a symmetrical triangle formation dating back from all-time high.

All signs point to the new uptrend beginning. Halving-based cycle theories point to a new peak by the end of next year. Targets reach as high as $325,000 at the peak. But what if Bitcoin cycles, as analysts on the other side of the argument claim, are lengthening? A new, unique perspective on Bitcoin market cycles may shed some light on what to expect in terms of timing the next peak, and potential targets.

Is Bitcoin’s Next Bull Market Here, Or Will Lengthening Cycles, Lower Peaks Crush Expectations?

Bitcoin has broken out of its multi-year triangle and is already off to the races. The cryptocurrency is up over 50% year to date and has been on a steady uptrend since the March 2020 low.

Indicators are now showing that the first-ever cryptocurrency is already overheated, and a pullback could be near. However, supply and scarcity-based market cycle theories focusing on the impact of Bitcoin’s halving, point to a peak within the next year.

Bitcoin’s code is designed to automatically reduce the block reward miners receive for securing the network. Approximately every four years, the amount of BTC miners earn for their efforts is cut in half. Most recently, this number dropped from 12.5 BTC to 6.25 BTC.

Related Reading | Analyst: Bitcoin Trajectory Ahead of Schedule, Peak Projected At $325K

The reduction in reward translates to an immediate increase in the cost of production. As miners hold to avoid selling at a loss, less supply enters the market, and demand eventually drives up prices.

Because these halvings happened every four years, and the last bear and bull cycle in Bitcoin happened to match up with the halving cycle perfectly, analysts now expect this to repeat indefinitely.

Other analysts argue that Bitcoin cycles are lengthening. Both theories have validity, however, only one theory has a track record that’s been proven more than once.

bitcoin btcusd lengthening cycles

Brave New Coin Bitcoin Liquid Index | Source: TradingView

Comparison Chart Gives Credence To Lengthening Crypto Market Cycle Theories

The four-year cycle theory based on Bitcoin’s halvings may not be all it is cracked up to be. Litecoin had its halving last year, and next to nothing took place, aside from an enormous selloff following the pre-halving hype rally.

Bitcoin’s pre-halving hype rally has extended far beyond the key date. Rising BTC fees are said to be partly responsible for narrowly escaping any post-halving miner death spiral.

But the asset’s stock-to-flow model calls for the cryptocurrency’s prices to be much higher by now. Sure the asset could catch up to what the model predicts, but what happens if Bitcoin continues sideways for another couple of years, potentially even setting a new low?

Related Reading | How Lengthening Bitcoin Cycles Conflict With Halving Driven Supply Theories

Sounds implausible, but the direct comparison above of previous Bitcoin peaks and cycle lengths shows that cycles are indeed lengthening. In fact, cycles have been lengthening by exactly 574 days.

June 2020 marked 1,148 days into the current cycle, which is 574 days times two. If the largest cryptocurrency by market cap has another 574 days to go, the next major bull run peak won’t arrive until July 2023.

Such a long cycle would be difficult for investors to swallow that are expecting the halving impact to soon take hold.

But what may be a tougher pill to swallow yet, is the fact that each peak has been diminishing as well in addition to each cycle lengthening. Each peak superimposed over the current Bitcoin price action and market cycle above shows that each lengthening cycle also resulted in a lower peak.

Analysts that believe in the halving theory say that the cryptocurrency is ahead of schedule on its trajectory toward $325,000 per BTC. But if peaks take longer to reach, and are lessened each time, the next peak would be projected to be somewhere closer to $200,000 per BTC in 2023.

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Tony "The Bull" Severino
Tony "The Bull" Severino

Tony "The Bull" Severino

Tony "The Bull" Severino, CMT, is a distinguished figure in the cryptocurrency analysis sector, renowned for his in-depth technical expertise and innovative approach to market trends. As the Head of Research at NewsBTC, Tony leads a team dedicated to providing cutting-edge insights and forecasts, helping both novice and experienced traders navigate the complexities of the crypto market.
A seasoned Chartered Market Technician, Tony's prowess in identifying and capitalizing on market patterns is unmatched. His academic and professional journey in market analysis has firmly established him as a leading authority in technical trading strategies. Tony’s approach is heavily influenced by the principles of Elliott Wave Theory, a method known for its rigorous assessment of investor psychology and price movements.

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Beyond his role at NewsBTC, Tony is the visionary founder of CoinChartist.io, an educational platform aimed at demystifying the nuances of cryptocurrency trading. CoinChartist.io serves as a valuable resource for traders seeking to enhance their technical analysis skills. The platform offers a range of learning tools and resources designed to empower traders with the knowledge to make informed trading decisions.

In addition to his educational initiatives, Tony is a prolific author and a dominant voice in the crypto community. He writes the CoinChartist VIP newsletter, a weekly dispatch that has become a staple among crypto enthusiasts, revered for its insightful analysis and actionable trading advice. This newsletter has consistently ranked as a best-seller on SubStack, boasting thousands of subscribers who rely on Tony’s expertise to guide their trading strategies.

Tony is also celebrated for his literary contributions to the field. He is the author of the highest-rated Crypto Trading Journal on Amazon.com, a testament to his ability to communicate complex trading concepts in an accessible manner. This journal is widely regarded as an essential tool for traders aiming to track their progress and refine their strategies.

Before his ascent in the financial analysis world, Tony honed his skills in journalism. His background in this field has endowed him with a unique ability to present intricate market dynamics in a clear and compelling manner, making his insights highly sought after by a broad audience that ranges from casual readers to professional traders.
His professional affiliations underscore his commitment to excellence and continuous learning. As a partner of Elliott Wave International and TradingView, Tony collaborates with other leading experts to enhance his knowledge and skills. His active membership in the CMT Association further aligns him with the highest standards of industry practices and ethics.

Tony’s nickname, "The Bull," aptly reflects his aggressive and optimistic outlook on the cryptocurrency markets. His forecasts often anticipate significant upturns, earning him a reputation for bullish predictions that have frequently led to lucrative outcomes for those who follow his advice.

In summary, Tony "The Bull" Severino, CMT, is more than just a technical analyst; he is a mentor, educator, and innovator whose influence in the cryptocurrency space continues to grow. His dedication to advancing the understanding of market forces and his commitment to providing high-quality, reliable analysis make him a pivotal figure in the world of cryptocurrency trading.

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Disclaimer: The information found on NewsBTC is for educational purposes only. It does not represent the opinions of NewsBTC on whether to buy, sell or hold any investments and naturally investing carries risks. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use information provided on this website entirely at your own risk.

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Reason to trust

Strict editorial policy that focuses on accuracy, relevance, and impartiality
Created by industry experts and meticulously reviewed
The highest standards in reporting and publishing
How Our News is Made

Strict editorial policy that focuses on accuracy, relevance, and impartiality

Ad discliamer

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