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Breaking News: Coinbase Confirms DOJ Investigation Following Major Security Incident

Bitcoin Exchange Inflows Mostly Coming From Loss Holders, Weak Hands Exiting?

Keshav Verma
Keshav Verma
1 year ago
4 mins read
Bitcoin

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On-chain data suggests a majority of the Bitcoin exchange inflows are currently coming from investors holding their coins at a loss.

Bitcoin Exchange Inflow Volume Is Tending Towards Losses Right Now

According to data from the on-chain analytics firm Glassnode, the short-term holders are mostly contributing to these loss inflows. The “exchange inflow” is an indicator that measures the total amount of Bitcoin that’s currently flowing into the wallets of centralized exchanges.

Generally, investors deposit to these platforms whenever want to sell, so a large amount of inflows can be a sign that a selloff is going on in the BTC market right now. Low values of the metric, on the other hand, imply holders may not be participating in much selling at the moment, which can be bullish for the price.

In the context of the current discussion, the exchange inflow itself isn’t of relevance; a related metric called the “exchange inflow volume profit/loss bias” is. As this indicator’s name already suggests, it tells us whether the inflows going to exchanges are coming from profit or loss holders currently.

When this metric has a value greater than 1, it means the majority of the inflow volume contains coins that their holders had been carrying at a profit. Similarly, values under the threshold imply a dominance of the loss volume.

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Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the Bitcoin exchange inflow profit/loss bias over the last few years:

Bitcoin Exchange Inflows

The value of the metric seems to have observed some decline in recent days | Source: Glassnode on Twitter

As shown in the above graph, the Bitcoin exchange inflow volume profit/loss bias has had a value above 1 for most of the ongoing rallies that started back in January of this year.

This suggests that most of the exchange inflows in this period have come from the profit holders. This naturally makes sense, as any rally generally entices a large number of holders to sell and harvest their gains.

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There have been a couple of exceptional instances, however. The first was back in March when the asset’s price plunged below the $20,000 level. The bias in the market shifted towards loss selling then, implying that some investors who bought around the local top had started capitulating.

A similar pattern has also occurred recently, as the cryptocurrency’s price has stumbled below the $27,000 level. Following this plunge, the indicator’s value has come down to just 0.70.

Further data from Glassnode reveals that the bias of the long-term holders (LTHs), the investors holding their coins since at least 155 days ago, have actually leaned towards profits recently.

Bitcoin Long-Term Holder Inflows

Looks like the indicator has a positive value right now | Source: Glassnode on Twitter

From the chart, it’s visible that the indicator has a value of 1.73 for the LTHs, implying a strong bias toward profits. Naturally, if the LTHs haven’t been selling at a loss, the opposite cohort must be the short-term holders (STHs).

Bitcoin Short-Term Holder Inflows

This group seems to have a heavy loss bias currently | Source: Glassnode on Twitter

Interestingly, the indicator’s value for the STHs is 0.69, which is almost exactly the same as the average for the entire market. This would mean that the LTHs have contributed relatively little to selling pressure recently.

The STHs selling right now would be the ones that bought at and near the top of the rally so far and their capitulation may be a sign that these weak hands are currently being cleansed from the market.

Although the indicator hasn’t dipped as low as in March yet, this capitulation could be a sign that a local bottom may be near for Bitcoin.

BTC Price

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $26,400, down 1% in the last week.

Bitcoin Price Chart

BTC has struggled recently | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView
Featured image from 愚木混株 cdd20 on Unsplash.com, charts from TradingView.com, Glassnode.com
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Keshav Verma
Keshav Verma

Keshav Verma

Keshav is currently a senior writer at NewsBTC and has been attached to the website since June 14, 2021.

Read more

Keshav has been writing for many years, first as a hobbyist and later as a freelancer. He has experience working in a variety of niches, even fiction at one point, but the cryptocurrency industry has been the longest he has been attached to.

In terms of official educational qualifications, Keshav holds a bachelor’s degree in Physics from one of the premier institutes of India, the University of Delhi (DU). He started the degree with an aim of eventually making a career in Physics, but the onset of COVID led to a shift in plans. The virus meant that the college classes had to be delivered in the online-mode and with it came free time for him to explore other passions.

Initially only seeking to make some beer money, Keshav unexpectedly landed clients offering real projects, after which there was no looking back. Writing was something he had always enjoyed and to be able to do it for a living was like a dream come true.

Keshav completed his Physics degree in 2022 and has been focusing on his writing career since, but that doesn’t mean his passion for Physics has ended. He eventually plans to re-enter university to obtain a masters degree in the same field, but perhaps only to satiate his own interest rather than for using it as a means to find employment..

Keshav has found blockchain and its concepts fascinating ever since he started going down the rabbit-hole back in 2020. On-chain analysis in particular has been something he likes to research more about, which is why his NewsBTC pieces tend to involve it in some form.

Being of the science background, Keshav likes if concepts are clear and consistent, so he generally explains the indicators he talks about in a bit of detail so that the readers can perhaps come out having understood and learnt something new.

As for hobbies, Keshav is super into football, anime, and videogames. He enjoys football not only as a watcher, but also as a player. For games, Keshav generally tends towards enjoying singleplayer adventures, with EA FC (formerly FIFA) being the only online game he is active in. Though, perhaps due to being ultra-focused on the game, he is today a semi-pro on the EA FC scene, regularly participating in tournaments and sometimes even taking back prize money.

Because of his enthusiasm for anime and games, he also self-learned Japanese along the way to consume some of the untranslated gems out there. The skill didn’t merely remain as just a hobby, either, as he put it to productive use during his exploration for small-time gigs at the start of COVID, fulfilling a couple of Japanese-to-English translation jobs.

Keshav is also big into fitness, with agility and acceleration-related workouts making a big part of his program due to the relevance they have in football. On top of that, he also has a more traditional strength based program for the gym, which he does to maintain an overall fitness level of his body.

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Disclaimer: The information found on NewsBTC is for educational purposes only. It does not represent the opinions of NewsBTC on whether to buy, sell or hold any investments and naturally investing carries risks. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use information provided on this website entirely at your own risk.

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Reason to trust

Strict editorial policy that focuses on accuracy, relevance, and impartiality
Created by industry experts and meticulously reviewed
The highest standards in reporting and publishing
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