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Breaking News: Coinbase Confirms DOJ Investigation Following Major Security Incident

Bitcoin Flirts With Hurdle At $24k, Why It Could Be In Early Days Of Recovery

Reynaldo Marquez
Reynaldo Marquez
1 year ago
2 mins read
Bitcoin Hashrate Plummets Following Crypto Winter, What Will Follow Onwards?

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Bitcoin continues to trend to the upside over the short term as the crypto market hints at further gains. The bullish momentum seems to be driven by the positive earnings seasons and the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rates hike.

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The financial institution announced a 75 basis points (bps) increase in interest staying within market expectations. Bloomberg Intelligence’s Senior Commodity Strategist Mike McGlone believes the Fed might have marked the pivot for Bitcoin.

By staying within market expectations, the financial institutions might give room for the bullish trend to expand in the coming months. The Fed has been trying to mitigate inflation in the U.S. dollar, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI).

This metric stands at a 40-year high but seems poised to trend downwards. The Bloomberg Intelligence analyst claims the price decrease across the commodities sector hints at this possibility and could provide the Fed with the support to “lighten the rate hike sledgehammer”.

This would benefit stores of value assets, such as Gold, U.S. treasury bonds, and Bitcoin. The cryptocurrency has been suffering, McGlone argues because it’s deemed a nascent asset with relatively new technology.

This disadvantage might fade into the background as Bitcoin’s adoption curve increases versus its total supply. As seen below, if the cryptocurrency follows the internet’s adoption curve, it could record over 1 billion users by 2025.

Bitcoin-BTC-BTCUSD-18
BTC’s adoption curve compared to the internet. Source: Visbitcoin via Michael Levin

In the short term, BTC’s price might benefit from mitigation in the macro-economic factors playing against it. The next major event will be July’s CPI print to be announced in August, which might result in more fuel for the current bullish price action. McGlone wrote:

(Fed’s) “meeting by meeting” comment may mark the pivot for #Bitcoin to resume its tendency to outperform most assets. New and untested are becoming past tense fast for the benchmark crypto, likely in the early recovery days from a severe drawdown.

Can Bitcoin Resume Its “Propensity To Outperform”?

Further data provided by McGlone shows a decrease in BTC’s price 250-day volatility versus the Bloomberg Commodity Spot Index. As seen below, whenever this metric trends downside, the price of Bitcoin reacts moving in the opposite direction.

Bitcoin BTC BTCUSDT
BTC’s price volatility declines versus Bloomberg Commodity Index hinting at potential price appreciation. Source: Bloomberg Intelligence

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Impressive Rally Puts Bitcoin Above $24,000, But Is $28,000 Still Possible?

1 year ago

A decline in BTC’s price 250-day volatility marked the beginning of the 2012 and 2017 rallies. In that sense, McGlone pointed out:

The lowest-ever Bitcoin volatility vs. the Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM) may portend a resumption of the crypto’s propensity to outperform (…). If history is a guide, Bitcoin volatility is more likely to recover vs. commodities when the crypto heads towards new highs.

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Reynaldo Marquez
Reynaldo Marquez

Reynaldo Marquez

A literature major, Reynaldo Márquez has been deeply immersed in the crypto industry since 2017. His journey began with translating articles for various crypto news outlets, a role he took on with zeal. In 2018, amidst a challenging market, he embraced his first writing assignment, demonstrating his unwavering commitment to the nascent industry and the promise of change it bears for many people worldwide.
In March 2021, he joined the prestigious crypto news outlet NewsBTC and Bitcoinist, where he not only reported on the latest crypto news but also had the privilege of interviewing some of the industry's most influential figures. A year later, his dedication and hard work were recognized, and he was promoted to Managing Editor, a position he currently holds with pride.
He believes in honesty, good communication, hard work, and the power of cryptocurrency and its potential to transform people's lives, especially those alienated by the legacy financial system. Born in 1992 in Venezuela, Reynaldo is familiar with how governments and central banks can negatively affect people, their everyday lives, and their futures by creating inflation and erasing their hopes for a better future. Thus, like many Venezuelans, he embraced this new technology to help him and his family navigate difficult times.
In another life, Reynaldo would have pursued a career as an investigator, most likely tracking down the origins of the Cyberpunk movement with the publication of William Gibson’s ‘Neuromancer.’ The intersection between fiction and reality, with the materialization of Bitcoin in 2009, would have allowed him to dive deep into the crypto sphere as something more than a financial phenomenon but also a cultural shift in society that was brewing since the XX century, and maybe even sooner, in the XIX century with the publication of Henry David Thoreau’s ‘Civil Disobedience.’
But that’s for another life. In this one, Reynaldo has been trading to improve his trading skills. Since 2023, he has been trying to learn Python to create successful strategies and find ways to execute them. It is a difficult task, which continues to keep him busy today and will most likely continue to keep him busy in the near and long term.
In his free time, he enjoys lifting heavy objects, reading, watching movies, and listening to his favorite music. Some of his favorite authors are Walt Whitman, William Faulkner, Allen Ginsberg, James Baldwin, Raymond Carver, Ray Bradbury, George Orwell, Mario Vargas Llosa, Reinaldo Arenas, Rafael Cadenas, and many others. Lately, he has been primarily interested in reading about dystopic societies, a topic that deeply resonates with the crypto industry.
Since 2023, he has lived in Spain with his wife. He loves the weather, the food, and the people and their culture. They both expect to travel much more within the country they now call home and beyond its border. He hopes to retire with his wife, maybe in a quiet place near a beach, but most likely in a city close to a library and a university with his kids and, hopefully, grandkids.

Disclaimer: The information found on NewsBTC is for educational purposes only. It does not represent the opinions of NewsBTC on whether to buy, sell or hold any investments and naturally investing carries risks. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use information provided on this website entirely at your own risk.

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Reason to trust

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Created by industry experts and meticulously reviewed
The highest standards in reporting and publishing
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Disclaimer: The information found on NewsBTC is for educational purposes only. It does not represent the opinions of NewsBTC on whether to buy, sell or hold any investments and naturally investing carries risks. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use information provided on this website entirely at your own risk.

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