Data shows the different Bitcoin investor cohorts now have their cost-basis packed together in a tight range. Here’s what this may tell us about the current market.
All Bitcoin Investor Groups Have Cost-Basis Between $18.7k And $22.9k
According to the latest weekly report from Glassnode, the cost-basis of the wider BTC market is currently around $20.2k.
Here, the “cost-basis” refers to the price at which the average investor in the Bitcoin market acquired their coins.
The entire market can be split into two main investor cohorts, the “short-term holders” (STHs) and the “long-term holders” (LTHs).
The STH group includes all investors that acquired their coins within the last 155 days. The LTHs, on the other hand, are made up by holders that have been holding their coins since more than 155 days ago.
Statistically, the LTH group is the cohort that’s least likely to sell their coins at any point, since the longer investors keep their coins the less probable they become to break their dormancy.
The cost-basis of either of these two groups is the price at which the average investor belonging to said cohort bought their coins.
Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the cost-basis of both LTHs and STHs, as well as that of the wider Bitcoin market:
Looks like the price was rejected by the STH cost-basis not too long ago | Source: Glassnode's The Week Onchain - Week 49, 2022
As you can see in the above graph, the cost-basis of the Bitcoin STHs has declined as the bear market has gone on, something that makes sense as this cohort only includes investors who bought recently. Naturally, the “recent” prices during the bear have been lower and lower.
The LTH cost-basis has slightly trended up as investors who bought during the higher prices are now a part of this group. Currently, this metric has a value of $22.9k.
This isn’t too far from the $18.7k cost-basis of the STHs and the $20.2k cost-basis of the wider market. This means that the different investor groups in the current market have acquired their coins at similar prices.
The implication of this is that the perceived risk and opportunity among all the holders, whether short-term or long-term, is the same. “As such, it is more likely that the aggregate market will start to behave in a more cohesive manner in response to volatility,” notes the report.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin’s price floats around $17k, up 3% in the last week.
BTC continues to hold still around the $17k mark | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView
Featured image from iStock.com, charts from TradingView.com, Glassnode.com