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Breaking News: Coinbase Confirms DOJ Investigation Following Major Security Incident

Bitcoin Macro Index Enters ‘Expansion’, Echoing 400% Bull Run Surge

Jake Simmons
Jake Simmons
1 year ago
3 mins read
Bitcoin price bull run

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In a detailed market update, Charles Edwards, founder of Capriole Investment, has provided an in-depth analysis of Bitcoin’s current market position, highlighting a pivotal shift to an ‘expansion’ phase in the Bitcoin Macro Index. This transition is particularly noteworthy as it parallels conditions observed prior to historical price surges in Bitcoin’s valuation.

Bitcoin has recently experienced a sharp uptick, ascending from $34,000 to an interim high of $38,000. After a brief period of resistance, the price corrected to approximately $36,500. Edwards highlights this movement as a critical technical victory, with Bitcoin overcoming and holding above the major resistance benchmarks of $35,000 on both the weekly and monthly timeframes.

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This consolidation above key resistance levels sets a bullish context in the high timeframe technical analysis, positioning Bitcoin in a strong technical stance according to traditional market indicators. “The recent breakout into the 2021 range offers the best high timeframe technical setup we have seen in years. Provided $35K holds on a weekly and monthly basis in November, the next significant resistance is range high ($58-65K).”

Bitcoin price analysis
Bitcoin price analysis | Source: Capriole Investments

Bitcoin Macro Index Enters Expansion

The crux of Edwards’ update is the shift in the Bitcoin Macro Index, a complex model synthesizing over 40 metrics encompassing Bitcoin’s on-chain data, macro market indicators, and equity market influences. The index does not take price as an input, thus providing a ‘pure fundamentals’ perspective.

The current expansion is the first since November 2020, and only the third instance since the index’s inception, with the two previous occasions leading to substantial price rallies in the following periods. Edwards elucidates this with a direct quote: “The transition from recovery to expansion is simply the optimal time to allocate to Bitcoin from a risk-reward opportunity for this model.”

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A look at the Bitcoin chart reveals that the Bitcoin price rose by a whopping 400% during the last bull run from early November 2020 to November 2021, after the Macro Index entered the expansion phase. The first historical signal was provided by the Macro Index on November 9, 2016, which was followed by a massive bull run of almost 2,600% until Bitcoin reached its then all-time high of $20,000 in February 2018.

Bitcoin Macro Index
Bitcoin Macro Index | Source: Capriole Investments

Short-Term Technicals And Derivatives Market Analysis

In the short term, the technical outlook presents a mixed picture, according to Edwards. The derivative markets are indicating an overheated state, with low timeframe analysis suggesting a retracement could be imminent. Edwards introduces the ‘Bitcoin Heater’ metric, recently launched on Capriole Charts, which aggregate various derivatives market data and quantify the level of market risk based on the open interest and heating level of perpetuals, futures, and options markets.

The below chart shows that most of the time when the Bitcoin Heater is above 0.8, the market corrects or consolidates. “But there are large exceptions to the rule: such as the primary bull market rally from November 2020 through to Q1 2021. […] We should expect this metric to be high more frequently in 2024 (much like Q4 2020 – 2021),” Edwards stated.

Bitcoin Heater
Bitcoin Heater | Source: Capriole Investments

The analyst concluded that the overall trend for Bitcoin remains positive, with major data points indicating a strong bullish scenario. However, he also cautioned about potential short-term risks in the low timeframe technicals and derivatives market. These, according to him, are common in the development of a bull run and could offer valuable opportunities if dips occur.

At press time, BTC traded at $35,626.

Bitcoin price
Bitcoin price re-enters trend channel, 2-hour chart | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com
Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com
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Jake Simmons
Jake Simmons

Jake Simmons

Jake Simmons, a dedicated crypto journalist, has been passionate about Bitcoin since 2016 when he first learned about it. Through his extensive work with NewsBTC.com and Bitcoinist.com, Jake has become a trusted voice in the crypto community, guiding newcomers and seasoned enthusiasts alike towards a deeper understanding of this dynamic field.

Read more

His mission is simple yet profound: to demystify Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies and make them accessible to everyone.
With a professional career in the Bitcoin and crypto scene that began right after graduating with a degree in Information Systems in 2017, Jake has immersed himself in the industry. Jake joined the NewsBTC Group in late 2022. His educational background provides him with the technical prowess and analytical skills necessary to dissect complex topics and present them in an understandable format. Whether you are a casual reader curious about Bitcoin or an investor seeking to navigate the latest market trends, Jake’s insights offer valuable perspectives that bridge the gap between complex technology and everyday usage.

Jake is not just a reporter on technological trends; he is a firm believer in the transformative potential of Bitcoin over traditional fiat currencies. To him, the current financial system is on the brink of chaos, propelled by unchecked government actions and flawed Keynesian economic policies. Drawing from the principles of the Austrian school of economics, Jake views Bitcoin not merely as a digital asset but as a crucial step towards rectifying a failing monetary system. His libertarian views reinforce his stance that just as the church was separated from the state, so too should money be freed from governmental control.

For Jake, Bitcoin represents more than just an investment; it's a peaceful revolution. He envisions a future where Bitcoin fosters a sustainable and responsible financial framework for generations to come. His advocacy is not about opposition but about evolution, about laying the groundwork for a system that prioritizes transparency and equity over secrecy and inequality.

As a journalist, Jake’s articles are crafted with the precision of a scholar and the passion of a true believer. He provides not only news but also thoughtful analysis that connects the dots between daily developments and larger economic theories. His work is a beacon for those lost in the technical jargon often associated with crypto discussions, illuminating the practical implications and benefits of these technologies.

In summary, Jake Simmons is not just reporting on a revolution; he wants to be part of it, fully committed to enhancing public understanding and adoption of Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies. His work is more than just a collection of articles; it’s a resource, a guide, and a companion for anyone ready to explore the potential of this digital frontier. Whether you are taking your first steps into crypto or are a veteran looking to stay on top of the latest trends, Jake’s insights provide clarity and foresight in an often unpredictable industry. Join him on this journey to reshape the world of finance, one post at a time.

You can engage with his latest takes on Twitter: @realJakeSimmons.

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Disclaimer: The information found on NewsBTC is for educational purposes only. It does not represent the opinions of NewsBTC on whether to buy, sell or hold any investments and naturally investing carries risks. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use information provided on this website entirely at your own risk.

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Reason to trust

Strict editorial policy that focuses on accuracy, relevance, and impartiality
Created by industry experts and meticulously reviewed
The highest standards in reporting and publishing
How Our News is Made

Strict editorial policy that focuses on accuracy, relevance, and impartiality

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