Bitcoin price has traded sideways for the entire month of June. The lack of conviction by both bears and bulls has resulted in a doji currently on the monthly timeframe on BTCUSD charts.
If the cryptocurrency closes tonight around current levels, the doji will be confirmed. However, past data suggests that this isn’t a bad thing for Bitcoin, and could precede a powerfully bullish move.
Market Cycles, Repeating Patterns, And More: Crypto Analysts Rely on Historical Data For Decision Making
Bitcoin is a relatively young asset in the financial world at just over a decade old. Due to this, analysts only have a small sample size in which to compare current price action against historically.
Things may not play out exactly the same way a second or third time in the land of cryptocurrency. However, markets are cyclical, and history often repeats.
Fractals, or repeating price patterns, exist for those very reasons and appear with much frequency.
Other repeating chart patterns, such as triangles and wedges, can tip traders off as to what the next move may be. Japanese candlesticks also serve this purpose, making them popular with traders performing technical analysis.
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These candlesticks also form patterns or can act as signals all by themselves. Doji are just one type of singular Japanese candlestick that can provide powerful clues as to what comes next.
Doji show indecision in markets, and either act as a prelude to a reversal, or strong continuation. Occasionally, doji will form in a cluster, dragging out indecision until an explosive breakout occurs.
One of these indecision candles will form on monthly BTCUSD price charts if the cryptocurrency continues to trade at current levels.
Bitcoin Monthly Doji More Likely To Result In Continuation To Upside, Data Shows
Doji candles and indecision aren’t always a bad thing. They often come at the top or bottom of a trend just as that previous trend reverses. Doji can act as an important signal for traders to pay attention and watch for a breakout.
But if that breakout is in the direction of the prior trend, doji can be a prelude to strong continuation in the primary direction.
Bitcoin price has been trending up since the Black Thursday bottom in mid-March. Highlighting the importance of monthly candle closes, the following month in April closed as a bullish engulfing.
Bullish engulfing candles signal a short-term trend reversal. What comes after is what turns things from short to long term. May closed green, and now June’s consolidation and indecision are resulting in a doji.
But data from past doji candles within a 3.5% or less range, have resulted in a breakout to the upside ore than 50% of the time. Bitcoin is working on its tenth ever doji on monthly timeframes within a 3.5% or less range.
Bitcoin BTCUSD Monthly | Source: TradingView
Five of the prior nine times have resulted in a long-term move to the upside. Two of the instances, resulted in a massive move to the upside, followed by a bearish reversal.
The final two times, occurred shortly after a new peak was set, and resulted in a long-term downtrend.
Thus far, all negative performing doji have resulted in a break to the upside. If Bitcoin closes at current prices below $9,200, the monthly close will fall into that negative category.
Things could change within the next several hours before the monthly close occurs, however, what comes following the close is what matters most.