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Breaking News: Tether Resolves Celsius Lawsuit With Major $300 Million Settlement Deal

Bitcoin Plays Chicken With Central Banks As Dollar Falls, Says Expert

Jake Simmons
Jake Simmons
7 months ago
3 mins read
Bitcoin price news

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Bitcoin’s price endured another bout of volatility over the weekend, shedding 5% on Sunday to dip below the $80,000 mark, before settling near $82,000. This latest decline places the cryptocurrency roughly 25% below its all-time high of $109,900. Analysts attribute the downturn to ongoing trade tensions—linked to President Donald Trump’s latest tariff measures—and the fears of a looming recession.

Meanwhile, a weakening US Dollar Index (DXY), which has fallen from 110 to 103 since mid-January, coinciding with Trump’s second term in office and could be a potential bullish catalyst for the Bitcoin price. In a series of posts on X, Jamie Coutts, Chief Crypto Analyst at Realvision, offers a look at the current market environment, highlighting two key metrics that could shape central bank policy—and, by extension, Bitcoin’s trajectory. “Bitcoin is like playing a game of Chicken with central banks,” Coutts writes.

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He explained that while the dollar’s recent decline supports a bullish framework for Bitcoin, rising Treasury bond volatility (tracked by the MOVE Index) and widening corporate bond spreads are causing concern: Coutts emphasized the role of US Treasuries as the global collateral asset. Any spike in their volatility, he argued, forces lenders to impose larger haircuts on collateral, tightening liquidity. “Rising volatility forces lenders to apply haircuts on collateral, thereby tightening liquidity. […] Above 110 [on the MOVE Index] and I suspect there will be a few concerns at the central planner levels.”

Bitcoin vs. macro and liquidity
Macro and liquidity dashboard by Real Vision | Source: X @Jamie1Coutts

Over the past three weeks, US investment-grade corporate bond spreads have been widening, a shift Coutts views as a signal that risk assets—including Bitcoin—could face pressure: “This suggests that the demand keeping yields compressed relative to Treasuries is fading—and further widening could be negative for risk assets.”

Despite these cautionary flags, Coutts remains optimistic about Bitcoin’s medium-term prospects, primarily due to the dollar’s “rapid decline.” He noted that the dollar’s drop in March—one of the most significant monthly dips in 12 years—historically has coincided with bullish inflection points in Bitcoin’s price. According to his research, “They have all occurred at Bitcoin bear market troughs (inflection points) or mid-cycle bull markets (trend continuations).”

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While acknowledging the limited historical dataset for Bitcoin, Coutts also cited key catalysts he believes could propel the digital asset higher:

  • Nation-State Adoption: “A global nation-state race is underway,” Coutts wrote, describing a scenario in which countries either include Bitcoin in their strategic reserves or ramp up mining efforts.
  • Corporate Accumulation: He points to the possibility of companies—particularly Strategy (MSTR)—adding 100,000 to 200,000 BTC this year.
  • ETF Positions: Exchange-traded funds may “double their positions,” further driving institutional inflows.
  • Liquidity Dynamics: In Coutts’s words, “The Spice Must Flow.”

Coutts also mentioned that Bitcoin appears to be “filling a big gap” and reiterated his view that a slide below the high-$70,000 range would signal a fundamental market shift. Meanwhile, he sees central bankers edging closer to possible intervention as Treasury volatility and credit spreads climb: “If Treasury volatility and bond spreads keep rising, asset prices will continue their decline. Meanwhile, this will likely push the central planners to act.”

Bitcoin's liquidity gap
Bitcoin’s liquidity gap | Source: X @Jamie1Coutts

In closing, Coutts offered a concise summary of why he believes Bitcoin is effectively locked in a showdown with central banks: “Think of Bitcoin as a high-stakes game of chicken with the central planners. With their options dwindling—and assuming HODLers remain unleveraged—the odds are increasingly in the Bitcoin owner’s favor.”

For now, the world’s largest cryptocurrency appears to be treading a line between macroeconomic headwinds—highlighted by a volatile bond market—and the tailwinds of a weakening dollar. Whether Bitcoin continues to retreat or resumes its long-term ascent will likely depend on how global policymakers respond to mounting bond market pressures—and whether holders are prepared to keep playing “chicken” with the central planners.

At press time, BTC traded at $82,091.

Bitcoin price
BTC price, 1-week chart | Source: BTCUSDT on TradingView.com
Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
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Jake Simmons
Jake Simmons

Jake Simmons

Jake Simmons, a dedicated crypto journalist, has been passionate about Bitcoin since 2016 when he first learned about it. Through his extensive work with NewsBTC.com and Bitcoinist.com, Jake has become a trusted voice in the crypto community, guiding newcomers and seasoned enthusiasts alike towards a deeper understanding of this dynamic field.

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His mission is simple yet profound: to demystify Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies and make them accessible to everyone.
With a professional career in the Bitcoin and crypto scene that began right after graduating with a degree in Information Systems in 2017, Jake has immersed himself in the industry. Jake joined the NewsBTC Group in late 2022. His educational background provides him with the technical prowess and analytical skills necessary to dissect complex topics and present them in an understandable format. Whether you are a casual reader curious about Bitcoin or an investor seeking to navigate the latest market trends, Jake’s insights offer valuable perspectives that bridge the gap between complex technology and everyday usage.

Jake is not just a reporter on technological trends; he is a firm believer in the transformative potential of Bitcoin over traditional fiat currencies. To him, the current financial system is on the brink of chaos, propelled by unchecked government actions and flawed Keynesian economic policies. Drawing from the principles of the Austrian school of economics, Jake views Bitcoin not merely as a digital asset but as a crucial step towards rectifying a failing monetary system. His libertarian views reinforce his stance that just as the church was separated from the state, so too should money be freed from governmental control.

For Jake, Bitcoin represents more than just an investment; it's a peaceful revolution. He envisions a future where Bitcoin fosters a sustainable and responsible financial framework for generations to come. His advocacy is not about opposition but about evolution, about laying the groundwork for a system that prioritizes transparency and equity over secrecy and inequality.

As a journalist, Jake’s articles are crafted with the precision of a scholar and the passion of a true believer. He provides not only news but also thoughtful analysis that connects the dots between daily developments and larger economic theories. His work is a beacon for those lost in the technical jargon often associated with crypto discussions, illuminating the practical implications and benefits of these technologies.

In summary, Jake Simmons is not just reporting on a revolution; he wants to be part of it, fully committed to enhancing public understanding and adoption of Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies. His work is more than just a collection of articles; it’s a resource, a guide, and a companion for anyone ready to explore the potential of this digital frontier. Whether you are taking your first steps into crypto or are a veteran looking to stay on top of the latest trends, Jake’s insights provide clarity and foresight in an often unpredictable industry. Join him on this journey to reshape the world of finance, one post at a time.

You can engage with his latest takes on Twitter: @realJakeSimmons.

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Disclaimer: The information found on NewsBTC is for educational purposes only. It does not represent the opinions of NewsBTC on whether to buy, sell or hold any investments and naturally investing carries risks. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use information provided on this website entirely at your own risk.

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Reason to trust

Strict editorial policy that focuses on accuracy, relevance, and impartiality
Created by industry experts and meticulously reviewed
The highest standards in reporting and publishing
How Our News is Made

Strict editorial policy that focuses on accuracy, relevance, and impartiality

Ad discliamer

Morbi pretium leo et nisl aliquam mollis. Quisque arcu lorem, ultricies quis pellentesque nec, ullamcorper eu odio.

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