Bitcoin Price At Pivotal Point, Which Comes First: $25,000 Or $30,000?

Jake Simmons

1 year ago

3 mins read

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[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]For the seventh time in the last three weeks, Bitcoin has been rejected at the resistance area of $28,600. Analysts are therefore divided on whether the Bitcoin price is on the verge of another capitulation or whether the bears are running out of steam and the breakout above $30,000 is finally coming.

Bitcoin Price On the Verge Of A Breakout?

In their latest analysis, Jan Happel and Yann Allemann, co-founders of Glassnode, note that Bitcoin remains unwilling to break out to the upside or break down. According to the two experts, the consolidation poses the risk that Bitcoin will dip towards $25,000 in order to collect liquidity:

Despite the short-term shakiness, the price has been pushed to the upside of the range, consolidating between $27.7k (pivot point) and $28.6k. The longer we hover within the range, the more likely that bitcoin drops to $25-$26.5k to catch liquidity, leading to the full-blown alt season.

Bitcoin price and liquidity | Source: Swissblock

However, the Bitcoin risk signal remains stable at the lower extreme, suggesting that the risk of a full-blown drop to the $25,000-$26,600 range is relatively low and a max pain scenario. To the upside, the price could rise to $29,200 to $30,000, according to Glassnode founders.

On the other hand, on-chain analyst Ali Martinez is much more bullish. “Another Bitcoin indicator hints at explosive growth!” wrote the analyst yesterday, referring to the aSORP.

Historically, an aSORP (90-day moving average) below 1 has signaled a bear market. When above 1, it has always marked the beginning of a new bull market. Martinez explained:

In 2015, 2019 & 2020, it led to 6,110%, 150%, & 579% gains. aSORP recently moved above 1, suggesting $BTC readies to go parabolic.

Bitcoin aSOPR | Source: Twitter @ali_charts

Technical chart analyst and founder of Eight Global, Michaël van de Poppe, agreed with Glassnode founders today that Bitcoin is still stuck in the range of the last three weeks and continues to consolidate. But he is bullish too:

Big event this week with CPI, probably the market mover. If another test of $28,600 takes place, I’m assuming we’ll be breaking out upwards.

While numerous experts expect another dip and want to buy only at $25,000, van der Poppe believes that this will not happen. His reasoning: there are currently no clear bearish divergences on higher time scales.

Jesse Colombo, economic analyst and Forbes contributor is currently observing a pennant pattern that currently appears to be forming below the crucial $30,000 resistance level. Via Twitter, Colombo shared the chart below and elaborated:

If Bitcoin can break out of that pennant pattern & above $30,000 with strong trading volume, it would be a bullish confirmation signal.

Bitcoin pennant pattern | Source: Twitter @TheBubbleBubble

Bears Warn Of Another Capitulation

On the other hand, the pseudonymous analyst “@52skew” warns of a time-based capitulation after Bitcoin failed to sustainably break through the $28,600 mark in higher time frames in recent weeks. The analyst speculates that investors are losing faith in Bitcoin’s strength (as evidenced by falling volume).

At press time, the Bitcoin price was at $28,313, consolidating below key resistance.

Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView.com

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Jake Simmons

Jake Simmons, a dedicated crypto journalist, has been passionate about Bitcoin since 2016 when he first learned about it. Through his extensive work with NewsBTC.com and Bitcoinist.com, Jake has become a trusted voice in the crypto community, guiding newcomers and seasoned enthusiasts alike towards a deeper understanding of this dynamic field.

His mission is simple yet profound: to demystify Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies and make them accessible to everyone.
With a professional career in the Bitcoin and crypto scene that began right after graduating with a degree in Information Systems in 2017, Jake has immersed himself in the industry. Jake joined the NewsBTC Group in late 2022. His educational background provides him with the technical prowess and analytical skills necessary to dissect complex topics and present them in an understandable format. Whether you are a casual reader curious about Bitcoin or an investor seeking to navigate the latest market trends, Jake’s insights offer valuable perspectives that bridge the gap between complex technology and everyday usage.

Jake is not just a reporter on technological trends; he is a firm believer in the transformative potential of Bitcoin over traditional fiat currencies. To him, the current financial system is on the brink of chaos, propelled by unchecked government actions and flawed Keynesian economic policies. Drawing from the principles of the Austrian school of economics, Jake views Bitcoin not merely as a digital asset but as a crucial step towards rectifying a failing monetary system. His libertarian views reinforce his stance that just as the church was separated from the state, so too should money be freed from governmental control.

For Jake, Bitcoin represents more than just an investment; it's a peaceful revolution. He envisions a future where Bitcoin fosters a sustainable and responsible financial framework for generations to come. His advocacy is not about opposition but about evolution, about laying the groundwork for a system that prioritizes transparency and equity over secrecy and inequality.

As a journalist, Jake’s articles are crafted with the precision of a scholar and the passion of a true believer. He provides not only news but also thoughtful analysis that connects the dots between daily developments and larger economic theories. His work is a beacon for those lost in the technical jargon often associated with crypto discussions, illuminating the practical implications and benefits of these technologies.

In summary, Jake Simmons is not just reporting on a revolution; he wants to be part of it, fully committed to enhancing public understanding and adoption of Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies. His work is more than just a collection of articles; it’s a resource, a guide, and a companion for anyone ready to explore the potential of this digital frontier. Whether you are taking your first steps into crypto or are a veteran looking to stay on top of the latest trends, Jake’s insights provide clarity and foresight in an often unpredictable industry. Join him on this journey to reshape the world of finance, one post at a time.

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