Why Bitcoin Price Could Drop 20% to $5,500 Before Rebounding

Nick Chong

1 year ago

3 mins read

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Is the bottom in? Since Bitcoin (BTC) fell precipitously to $6,600 late last month, analysts have been asking if the leading cryptocurrency has finally found a price bottom after a multi-month downturn.

Analysts have understandably divided over the question, as the correct answer would show in which direction Bitcoin will head for the next couple of months. Some are bullish, others are bearish.

Some suggest that there may be another drop before the crypto asset finally finds a bottom.

Bitcoin Could Drop 20%, Analysts Warn

Top cryptocurrency analysis account BitcoinEconomics.io recently noted that they believe BTC “going down to $5500 in Q1 2020 seems a likely scenario,” adding that there is likely going to be another accumulation and shakeout phase before a slower uptrend.

BTC going down to $5500 in Q1 2020 seems a likely scenario. It may even touch $8k before that. More shakeout and accumulation before a sustained and slower upward trend is likely.

A few people predicted such a second smaller "bear market" in the first half of 2019. https://t.co/s9Px4SgUGr

— BitcoinEcon (@BitcoinEcon) December 21, 2019

BitcoinEconomics’ analysis corroborates the sentiment of other prominent cryptocurrency traders.

According to a recent update from Jacob Canfield, a professional cryptocurrency trader, Bitcoin is not yet near a macro bottom in his eyes. He remarked that the cryptocurrency is likely to see a 20% drawdown from the current level of $7,200 to $5,500, for there is where the 0.786 Fibonacci Retracement of the rally from $3,100 to $14,000 lies.

https://twitter.com/JacobCanfield/status/1206796842144616449

But Isn’t the Bottom In?

While some fear that more downside is likely, there are technical and fundamental factors suggesting that the ultimate bottom of the recent downturn is in.

Prominent analyst Dave recently noted that his price target’s for the cryptocurrency market’s de-facto “M1, M2, and M3” readings, which in traditional markets are the measure of different forms of “money” in the world’s economy, have recently hit his retracement targets: M1, Bitcoin’s market cap, has seen a 50% retracement; M2, the total market cap, a 61% retracement; and M3, the altcoin market cap, a 78% retracement.

For Dave, the fact that these measures have reached those retracements implies crypto may soon rebound.

He followed this up with the post seen below, in which the prominent analyst remarked that he expects for Bitcoin’s one-week Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator to turn upward, which will kick off the next round of growth in the BTC market.

Predicting the weekly MACD about to turn up…. going according to plan. 🙂 pic.twitter.com/xi0VJWojU0

— dave the wave🌊🌓 (@davthewave) December 20, 2019

Nick Chong

I am a writer who has been following Bitcoin for years now. My insights and interviews have been featured in leading publications in the industry such as LongHash and Decrypt. I own a small amount of Bitcoin.